NFL Notebook: The Heat are the best-case scenario for the Patriots, but who is their Jimmy Butler?

The Miami Heat, with seven undrafted players, are far from the most talented team in the NBA. They also slogged through the regular season at 44-38, entered the play-in tournament as the East's seventh seed, lost the first of those games, and barely escaped the second to hit the playoffs as the eighth seed.

At one point, after the trade deadline, The Ringer had the Heat ranked 12th in the league under the "Final Fantasies" tier:

12. Miami Heat

I just don’t think this team is good enough to make the Finals despite Bam Adebayo’s progress. The Heat are too small, lack shooting, and have more holes on defense than any of the other contenders in the East. But they at least belong in the conversation, considering their recent history and the fact that Jimmy Butler levels up in the postseason.

But in the postseason, the Heat beat the top-seeded Bucks in five games, the fifth-seed Knicks in six, and, of course, blew out the No. 2 Celtics on their own home court in Game 7 to advance to the NBA Finals.

The Heat do face a 3-1 deficit to the Nuggets, but no matter what happens, Miami has had an unbelievable run — one that would be the envy of many teams.

It's the type of stretch many thought was not possible in today's NBA, where the best collection of talent almost always comes out on top. Put a couple of great players together, and you're at least in the conference finals.

But the Heat possess three things that have allowed them to buck the norm: a great, experienced coach in Erik Spoelstra, roster depth with key role players, and an unquestioned leader the rest of the team feeds off of and is at his best in the big moments: Jimmy Butler.

Watching the Heat run during this postseason, I've often thought: "This is the best-case scenario for the 2023 Patriots."

The Patriots definitely don't have one of the most talented rosters in the league, and ESPN.com ranking the Patriots 27th among roster cores is evidence of that (and fairly accurate given their continued depth-building approach). Most feel the NFL is ruled now by the best collection of offensive talent, and the Chiefs and Eagles being in the Super Bowl was ample evidence of that. New England lacks in that regard and would be bucking that trend, but it has at least a deep team, certainly deeper than most. 

New England will also have to slog it through a regular season that has a very tough open and close. It's difficult seeing the Patriots winning the division even if everything goes right and they get some injury help, but they could be a wild card. They'd have a mediocre record, but they would be battle-hardened by a tough schedule and perhaps the best division in the league.

Like the Heat, the Patriots should have the coaching advantage over most teams with Bill Belichick. He's no longer the undisputed best and he's on the downside of his career, but having Bill O'Brien handling the offense should allow Belichick to be at his best for the team by making a difference on defense and special teams.

So on those counts, you can definitely make the case that the Patriots could be the NFL's version of the Heat — that coaching and a team mean more than just talent.

But there's one huge question mark when it comes to that comparison: who would be the Jimmy Butler for New England?

Basketball's obviously a much different sport — one player can make that much of a difference when five are on the floor at a time — so a different leadership structure is required. Basically, you need one player on offense and defense to be that clutch playmaker with swagger who can lift the entire unit.

On the championship Patriots teams, you knew Brady was the guy for the offense on all the title teams (you could definitely make a case for Troy Brown in 2001; Julian Edelman later), and there was always an alpha on defense that dominated and came through in the biggest spots — and usually more than one (helps a lot). My list by team:

2001: Ty Law, Tedy Bruschi
2003: Mike Vrabel, Rodney Harrison
2004: Harrison, Willie McGinest
2014: Darrelle Revis, Dont'a Hightower
2016: Hightower
2018: Stephon Gilmore/Hightower

To me, Hightower is the football version of Butler. Both might not put up the biggest stats, or be a big star, or have the greatest "skills", but when the lights are the brightest, they always come through.

So that leads to the discussion about the 2023 Patriots. As of today, you would say they lack that guy on both sides of the ball. Which players need to take the leap to give the Patriots at making a Heat-like run?

OFFENSE

QB Mac Jones: This is obvious. It almost always has to be the quarterback since they handle the ball so much, and they can generate so much belief in their teammates by elevating everyone's play. Jones doesn't have much of a resume in the NFL to this point, but he had some big moments at Alabama (National Championship, comeback vs. Auburn). Still, this would be one of those points that anti-Mac people use to argue against keeping the QB. This will be a big referendum season on if Jones has those makings. You can't really say one way or the other at this point.

RB Rhamondre Stevenson: He has a quiet Hightower-like swag and has the ability to take over games, but there's only so much a running back can do on their own (see Derrick Henry).

WR Juju Smith-Schuster: Can't really make an argument for either tight end, or any of the other receivers - they're supporting cast. At the moment, Smith-Schuster is the only receiver capable of taking over a game, and even that's a HUGE stretch at this point in his career (maybe when he was with the Steelers). This would be an argument for signing DeAndre Hopkins, who can get on a swaggy run.

LT Trent Brown: In some sort of far-off fantasyland, Brown has the type of size and power that could allow him to become an absolutely devastating butt-kicker on an every-down basis, giving the backs and Jones the utmost confidence. And then we woke up.

DEFENSE

DT Christian Barmore: Most would put Matthew Judon in the top spot. He's certainly the team's best and most productive players, but in big games, Judon gets a lot of attention and he gets most of his production working off other people. Barmore is probably the one guy in the front seven who has the ability to just dominate his one-on-one matchup with little help. If he became a consistent playmaker, the rest of the defense could feed off him.

DE Matthew Judon: Didn't fade quite as badly last season, but there was a definite dropoff because he's fairly scheme-dependent to get pressure. If he was just a little more dominating in the big games, he could definitely be the big dog on defense. Does he want to be that guy? You didn't even have to ask the question with Hightower. You just felt it, and so did his teammates.

S Kyle Dugger: The talent is unquestioned, but he hasn't developed into the crunch-time producer as a Hightower. Even PFF, which really likes Dugger, has him ranked as the 21st-best safety in the league.

CB Christian Gonzalez: It seems unlikely, but not going to rule out that the top pick could come in and have a Sauce Gardner-like impact. It's a long shot, but in the realm of possibility.

S Marte Mapu: Similar to Gonzalez, this seems to be a long shot, but he's been the early star of the offseason and is doing things well beyond a rookie level already. 

(BTW, if the Patriots are going to make a big jump this year, having Mac Jones, Christian Barmore, Christian Gonzalez and Marte Mapu becoming impact players would be the blueprint.)

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. Let's do a little bit more with the various rankings. So ESPN has the Patriots' core 27th, while the rest of the division is stacked: Dolphins 4th, Bills 5th, Jets 8th.

Patriots core is listed as: QB Jones, OLB Judon, S Dugger, OLB Uche and OG Onwenu.

Some took issue with Jones in there (49ers at 10 and Bucs at 26 are only teams without QBs). My list for Patriots, based off last season: Judon, Andrews, Smith-Schuster (taking Jakobi Meyers' spot), Onwenu, Stevenson.

Best-case scenario for 2023 Patriots: Jones, Judon, Barmore, Trent Brown, Smith-Schuster.

2. PFF has their entire roster rankings, and the Patriots are 18th. Bills are 5th, Jets 7th, Dolphins 10th.

3. PFF offensive positional rankings:

QB: 21. Mac Jones. 
RB: 16. Rhamondre Stevenson
WR: None listed in top 32 (DeAndre Hopkins is 12th)
TE: None listed in top 15
OT: None listed in top 32 (Jermaine Eluemunor is ranked 32nd!)
OG: 6. Mike Onwenu. 30. Cole Strange.
OC: 5. David Andrews

Yeah, this is a problem. Patriots have to prove them wrong at just about every position to contend this year.

4. PFF defensive positional rankings:

ED: 18. Matthew Judon. 23. Josh Uche.
DT: 22. Christian Barmore.
LB: 16. Ja'Whaun Bentley.
CB: 32. Jonathan Jones.
S: 21. Kyle Dugger. 32. Adrian Phillips.

For this defense to be truly great in every game, every player is going to need to finish higher, and some youngsters need to pop.

5. DeAndre Hopkins watch...

Patriots check a lot of those boxes, no? (Notice, as I've said previously, he didn't mention a ring. He didn't mention money either, but that's probably at the top of the list.)