Donnelly: James Paxton isn't the ace the Red Sox wanted, but he's the ace they need

Who could have expected James Paxton would be leading the Red Sox' starting rotation in 2023?

Maybe, had you thought of it in 2019, it wouldn't be such a seemingly inconceivable notion. 

It's the same Paxton, who missed over two years – 766 days, to be exact – of action due to Tommy John surgery in 2021 and a hamstring strain in the 11th hour of his recovery this season. 

He's the same guy who hadn't been fully healthy for a season since 2019 before he struggled to gain traction coming out of an injury in 2020. 

It's also the same Paxton that is separating himself from the pack on a pitching staff in need of a hero, now that fellow resurging southpaw Chris Sale is fallen by another setback of his own, this time an ominous ailment in his throwing shoulder.

But Paxton has tapped into that pre-2020 form that made him a sought-after commodity in New York after a strong first run in Seattle. 

Tuesday was no exception.

Paxton went seven innings deep for the Red Sox in their 5-4 comeback win over the Guardians in Cleveland. He hadn't gone seven innings deep since September 2019 with the Yankees. He's made it at least five innings in four of five outings this season. 

“It’s great that I’m able to go seven tonight,” Paxton told reporters. “It’s not really something that’s on my mind. You know, I’m out there every night trying to do the same thing and trying to go as far as I can. ... To be able to go up there, keep [Cleveland] at two and give us a chance to come back, which we did. It was great.

"You know, just going out there, it's always the goal to hear that seventh-inning stretch song when you go out there."

Big Maple willed Boston into position for its explosive eighth inning, surrendering just two runs on six hits with nine strikeouts and two walks. He pounded the zone with 71 of his 106 pitches going for strikes, keeping the Sox alive until the bats finally woke up. 

"He's got, you know, pretty special stuff, as you guys see," Rob Refsnyder told reporters. "He gives us ace-caliber stuff. We're pretty confident whenever Paxton takes the mound. ... It was huge. I know our bullpen's been in a lot of innings. So, to get Paxton for seven innings, that's huge, especially starting the series off."

It was one of the 34-year-old's most efficient outings of the season, even after a 28-pitch first inning that saw the Guardians hanging two quick runs on the board after a single and a pair of doubles. He got better as the game went on, never topping over 16 pitches in any other frame. He trotted out for a 12-pitch fifth and 11-pitch sixth and seventh innings to keep the Red Sox within a 2-1 hole on the scoreboard, setting up Boston's eighth-inning outburst to mark the rally. 

“That was big," he said. "To be able to go up there and keep them at two and give us a chance to come back which we did, which was great and it was an awesome night for the team. I feel like I keep on progressing, figure some things out each time out and keep on dialing some things in and I feel like I’m getting better and better.”

He topped out in the high-90s with his velocity on the fastball, averaging 95.8 miles per hour. It was Paxton's most useful and reliable weapon in his arsenal as he threw 68 percent fastballs against Cleveland, generating 15 whiffs and a combined 26 called strikes and whiffs, according to Baseball Savant. 

Opponents are hitting just 2-for-21 (.095) against Paxton in the third and fourth times through the order.

“Stuff-wise, good, command was great," Alex Cora told reporters. "Was able to use his fastball up in the zone whenever he wanted to. Was able to expand down in the zone and he was under control. … That's the guy I remember seeing in [2017] and obviously with the Yankees, so it was good to see. There was another gear with that fastball after the fourth inning."

Paxton, who feels like he "keeps on progressing," has made it through 26 innings of work in five appearances since making his return. He's totaled 36 strikeouts and given up 23 hits, 11 walks and 11 earned runs. He has a 1.23 WHIP on the year. The waiting game appears to be finally paying off for Chaim Bloom after inking Paxton to a one-year deal worth $10 million with a two-year club option on Dec. 1, 2021. 

With Kutter Crawford expected to open what could turn into a bullpen game for Boston on Wednesday, Paxton going deep into Tuesday's win becomes even more important for a staff that is likely to be tested even more without Sale. 

"Got into the fourth time in that lineup, and really saved our bullpen," Triston Casas said in the postgame walk-off interview on NESN. "Hats off to him, keeping us in the game, staying in it. He kept attacking and kept his pitch count down."

Cora said, "It was important, especially where we were at bullpen-wise. ... They weren’t expecting seven, but we were able to extend his outing and he gave us a chance to win.”

It was possibly the best outing of any Red Sox starter in 2023, and it couldn't have come at a better time for a depleted pitching staff on a team that has at times barely clung to .500 baseball.

Paxton may not be winning a Cy Young, but if he can keep up this form, he's exactly what the Red Sox need in the rotation.