Donnelly: Looking at what it will take for the Bruins to re-sign Tyler Bertuzzi

Don Sweeney and the rest of the Bruins' front office have their work cut out for them this offseason. 

Boston is strapped for cash, currently projected to have $4.9375 million in cap space, according to CapFriendly, with the salary cap expected to see another minimal $1 million bump in all probability. 

It's not a lot of room to maneuver for a team with significant roster decisions to make this offseason with Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci (both unrestricted free agents) mulling retirement, other UFAs in Tyler Bertuzzi, Dmitry Orlov, Garnet Hathaway, Nick Foligno, Connor Clifton and Tomas Nosek as well as key RFAs in Jeremy Swayman and Trent Frederic. That's not even getting into potential additions on the open market. 

A domino (or a couple) will need to fall elsewhere on the roster to create space, whether it's a Mike Reilly buyout and a trade of some sort. 

When asked of his UFAs, specifically of the three he acquired at the deadline, Don Sweeney said during his end-of-season press conference, "I couldn't just sign those players today. We have cap constraints. That might mean I might be able to sign one of those three players."

It seems they've identified the one they're going after as the Bruins appear to be intent on moving forward with attempting to re-sign Bertuzzi. 

Sportsnet's Elliotte Friedman wrote recently in his "32 Thoughts" blog that, "Boston is exploring what it needs to do to keep Tyler Bertuzzi, who is slated to be an unrestricted free agent this summer." He doubled down on it in the latest episode of his podcast with Jeff Marek.

The B's acquired Bertuzzi from Detroit in exchange for a 2024 first-round pick (top-10 protected) and a 2025 fifth after already shipping out a 2023 first, 2025 second, 2024 third and a 2023 fifth to bring in Orlov and Hathaway. 

Now with nothing to show for pushing their chips into the middle, the Bruins are at the risk of losing all three players for nothing, barring they can re-sign Bertuzzi, who makes the most sense to retain of the three. 

It was practically a perfect match between the former Red Wing and Boston, proving to be a strong fit alongside Charlie Coyle and Trent Frederic on a loaded-up third line before eventually slotting in wonderfully with Pavel Zacha and David Pastrnak.

After one assist in his first four games in Black and Gold, Bertuzzi had a strong finish to the regular season with 15 points (4g, 11a) in 17 games. With Bertuzzi on the ice at 5-on-5, the Bruins outscored opponents 17-11, holding the majority of shot attempts and shots on top of a significant advantage (58.82 percent) in scoring chances.

It salvaged a season that quickly looked like it was headed for the throw-away pile in Detroit after the winger injured both his hands on two separate blocked shots at the start of the season. 

In the playoffs, the 28-year-old's fit remained seamless. Bertuzzi had a reputation as a playoff player from his time in the AHL and OHL, and it continued with Boston, between his team-leading 10 points (5g, 5a) in the seven-game first round or his knack for being a pest. However, Boston was outscored 7-4 (4-1, high-danger) with Bertuzzi on the ice at 5-on-5 in the postseason. The B's were also outshot and out-chanced. Even if he was a defensive liability, particularly with the puck on his stick, the Sudbury, Ont., native set himself up nicely to cash in this offseason, especially after putting up 30 goals when he was fully healthy in 2021-22. 

The Bertuzzi-Zacha-Pastrnak trio provided a possible glimpse into a future second line without Krejci. In 73:54 of 5-on-5 time together in the regular season, the Bruins had a 7-4 goal-scoring edge, held a 55.7 percent share of shot attempts, 52.75 percent of shots on goal and 52.94 percent of scoring chances. In 26:25 together in the postseason, Boston held 63 percent of shots on goal, 64.5 percent of expected goals, 56 percent of scoring chances and 54 percent of shot attempts. 

Bertuzzi and Pastrnak, in particular, had a clear connection both at even strength and on the power play whenever they were together. 

So what is it going to take for the Bruins to retain Bertuzzi's services? Friedman thinks a major sticking point will be the length of the contract. 

“Now with Bertuzzi, one of the reasons I think it didn’t work out with Detroit is because of term," he said. "You know, he had a certain term that he preferred to stay there, and the Red Wings weren’t willing to go there. I don’t assume that any of that has changed. So, we’ll see what the case is here, but from what I’m hearing the Bruins are, you know, floating some things out there."

At 29, Bertuzzi is expectedly seeking security, in what is likely his last and only chance to earn a long-term, big-money contract. 

According to AFP Analytics, Bertuzzi is projected to sign a six-year, $5.25 million contract on the open market. It would be the second-most expensive of Boston's deadline acquisitions with Orlov projected at five years, $6.25 million and Hathaway at four years, $2 million. Given his production and that the bulk of the contract will still be in his prime, Bertuzzi's projection provides the best value of the three, even with his injury history. 

Of 426 contract projections, AFP Analytics has a mean absolute error (MAE) of $223,875.81 in terms of cap hit and an MAE of 0.33 for term. By and large, their projections are awfully accurate. 

What certainly helps is the interest appears to be mutual, even if there are plenty of factors to consider this time of year.

"We loved it. We honestly had such a blast," Bertuzzi said on breakup day. "We were in the north end. Ate pasta every day, went for walks, we had a lot of fun, and we enjoyed it here. So yeah, we could definitely see [myself re-signing]. ... The fans here are awesome, arena like everything about it, I loved it. ... Just having a little girl, she’s probably going to be going to school soon, there are a lot of things that factor in, but I’ll make a decision."

The problem with Bertuzzi's projected deal, as high-value as it may be, is that the Bruins don't have enough space as things stand to sign him, let alone anyone else. 

Something's got to give. 

Buying out Reilly is an easy start. It's unlikely a team would trade for him, unless Boston attaches a pick, which would not be wise, given their current cupboard of draft capital and prospects. A buyout would save the Bruins approximately $2.667 million against the cap this coming season. It would, however, cost the Bruins about $1.333 in 2024-25. But with the salary cap projected to see significant boosts following 2023-24, Boston would ideally be in a position to handle that dead money. 

The buyout instantly gives the B's roughly $7.6 million in total cap space. There are a number of candidates to become cap casualties for Boston. Matt Grzelcyk ($3.6875 million) and Derek Forbort ($3 million) are obvious candidates on defense. Grzelcyk, definitely the more-tradeable asset of the two, is in the unenviable position of potentially being moved by his hometown team, but after the playoffs, Boston is also in the position of either using him or trading him. 

Moving on from Grzlecyk brings the Bruins up to (again, roughly) $11.2 million in cap space, enough to get Bertuzzi and others done, but also not enough for everything. That brings us to another potential cap casualty, Taylor Hall ($6 million). Hall has been a luxury item for the Bruins, making up part of one of the league's strongest third lines with Coyle and Frederic after stints in the top-six in his first season and a half in Boston. If the Bruins can re-sign Bertuzzi for a lower cap hit than Hall, at least as AFP Analytics suggests, it gives them a strong core of top-six wingers in Bertuzzi, Pastrnak, Brad Marchand and Jake DeBrusk. Given their financial situation, it seems unwise for the Bruins to pay Hall that kind of money for a bottom-six role with minimal time on special teams. 

Trading Hall alone on top of the Reilly buyout gives the Bruins about $13.6 million in cap room. Maybe that's enough to re-sign Bertuzzi, Swayman, Frederic and possibly Bergeron and/or Krejci (on cheap money), but it precludes the Bruins from making any additions. There are also lower-level RFAs to think about in Jakub Lauko, Marc McLaughlin and Brandon Bussi, among others. 

Buying out Reilly in addition to trading Grzelcyk and Hall opens the Bruins up to approximately $17.2 in cap room, which should be plenty to make the re-signings they need to and make depth additions on the open market. Swapping Forbort for Grzlecyk would still leave them with just shy of $17 million. For the sake of exploring all avenues, a Forbort buyout would save approximately $2.333 million in cap space, while costing about $1.167 in 2024-25. On top of the penalty for Reilly in that second season, it may not be so wise to also buy out Forbort's contract. 

Moving Hall and either Grzelcyk or Forbort would also be a way for the B's to possibly recoup some draft capital that they've shipped out.

With what should be a strong group of wingers, especially in the top-six; a strong core on defense with Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm and Brandon Carlo; and one of the league's top goaltending situations, the Bruins should be well-equipped to handle those potential cap casualties while remaining competitive. It especially helps if Bergeron returns. Of he and Krejci, No. 37 seems to be the more likely candidate to be back. 

Sweeney, who said last month that the Bruins are "paying it forward" with their cap situation after their busy trade deadline, knows there will be hard decisions this offseason: "Roster changes are likely coming. We won't be the same team next year." 

But it is evident that retaining Bertuzzi is among the top priorities.

Friedman said, "It’s pretty clear, I think, to other teams what Boston is trying to do, and that is to keep Bertuzzi on the roster.”