MLB Notebook: Examining Boston’s Recent Draft Record, Plus Local Names To Know

By Mark Chiarelli
Special to BostonSportsJournal.com

When the Red Sox hired Chaim Bloom away from the Rays four years ago, they positioned the decision through the lens of sustainability. The idea, of course, was that Bloom, one of the key cogs of a Tampa Bay front office and player development machine that remains one of the envies of baseball, could apply some of the same best practices in Boston.

Boston has yet to fully capture that magic, although there are some recent signs the player development system is headed in the right direction. Masataka Yoshida and Garrett Whitlock are scouting success stories. Jarren Duran’s latest surge seems to be legit. Marcelo Mayer looks like a hit in the draft, and both Ceddanne Rafaela and Miguel Bleis look like shrewd international acquisitions. 

But is that enough to keep up in the AL East? 

Baseball America painted the rosiest outlook of Boston’s system entering 2023, ranking it No. 10 in baseball. That ranking was buoyed by the likes of Yoshida and Triston Casas, who are no longer prospects. MLB.com slotted the Red Sox at No. 16 in its annual farm system rankings, while The Athletic’s Keith Law ranked Boston No. 23, decrying their lack of pitching. 

“It’s an organization that is in that massive middle,” said Baseball America executive editor J.J. Cooper. “It’s not one of the standout farm systems in baseball, but you don’t look at it and say there’s nothing there, either.” 

There are worse situations in baseball, but it’s sobering to remember the Rays and Orioles – the two best teams in the American League East as of Saturday – also rank among the game’s top farm systems, both in terms of elite talent and depth. The Orioles lead all of baseball with eight Top 100 prospects in Baseball America’s latest update. The Rays trail close behind with seven. 

Boston, meanwhile, has three: Mayer, Rafaela and Bleis. 

There’s a lot riding on the development of Mayer, who Boston selected No. 4 overall in 2021 – its highest draft pick in 54 years. The early returns are successful. The 20-year-old shortstop shrugged off a slow start to hit .319/.395/.531 through his first 27 games with High-A Greenville and continues to receive positive reviews from evaluators.  

“It’s a system that, right now, depends at this point on Mayer being an impact regular,” Cooper said. “He could be an organizational difference maker.”

Barring something extraordinary, a prospect of Mayer’s caliber won’t fall to the Red Sox this year. The Red Sox pick 14th overall, a more comparable position to their 2020 and 2022 drafts. In those instances, Boston has shown a willingness to take an unconventional approach.

Few expected either Nick Yorke (2020) or Mikey Romero (2022) to go in the first round. But the cost savings associated with both selections allowed Bloom to spread Boston’s draft allotment around. Such a decision, for example, allowed the Red Sox to go above slot to draft Shane Drohan in the fifth round in 2020 – a move that looks especially prescient now following his recent promotion to Triple-A Worcester. 

The Red Sox did the same thing last year, ultimately dishing out their largest signing bonus ($2.5 million) to prep high school outfielder Roman Anthony, who has impressed evaluators so far with Low-A Salem. 

Cooper likened the strategy to investing in an index fund as opposed to putting all of your money into one stock. And it can be a shrewd approach – if it works. 

There’s equal pressure now on the Red Sox player development apparatus to validate the draft day decisions. Baseball’s best organizations draft and develop in concert. The Dodgers are the model, routinely identifying Top 100 prospects despite picking at the back of the draft. The Guardians are something of a pitching factory, identifying college pitchers with strike-throwing characteristics and unlocking more effective pitch mixes. 

The Red Sox don’t have to look far for two other examples. Both the Rays and Orioles are among the game’s best. 

“If you asked how the Red Sox stack up to the Orioles right now, it’s not close,” Cooper said. “The Orioles have more middle infield prospects than there are spots to play them all.” 

It’s easy to say the Orioles bottomed out en route to the No. 1 overall pick in two of the last three drafts (Adley Rutschman, Jackson Holliday). But Orioles shortstop Gunnar Henderson was the No. 42 pick in 2019. Baltimore took another shortstop two rounds later, Joey Ortiz, and he now ranks among the game’s better infield prospects.

“Those are wins for the Orioles,” Cooper said. “Other teams had the ability to draft those guys. The Orioles did and benefited from it. I don’t think the Red Sox are drafting and developing better than the Orioles right now – there aren’t many who are.” 

Rays lefty Shane McClanahan went No. 31 overall in 2018. Recently promoted Rays RHP Taj Bradley was a fifth-round pick that year and has been very effective in his debut, striking out 33.8% of batters through his first four starts. 

Even Kyle Manzardo, the Rays’ No. 61 pick in the 2021 draft, now ranks among baseball’s Top 100 prospects.

“This would all look a lot better for the Red Sox if they’re in a different division,” Cooper said. “It’s a little rough for the Red Sox when comparing within the division, although it’s still early. I don’t have as many examples like that in Boston since Jarren Duran – he did that. They don’t have as many of those types of wins. But if you compare it to the totality of the league, it looks a lot better.” 

Hitting on picks like Drohan and Anthony is a start. Yorke has returned to his hitter-ish ways in Double-A Portland this season, too, after slogging through a rough 2021. The Red Sox system could use more stories like that, and the July draft represents a great opportunity to do so. 

Local Draft Prospects To Keep An Eye On

The Red Sox haven’t drafted a New England product during the Bloom era. This year wouldn’t be a bad year to start. It’s a deep draft class across the region on the mound. 

Phillips Andover lefty Thomas White is the headliner. The Rowley, Mass. native is Perfect Game’s top-ranked high school pitcher. Baseball America cleverly mocked him to … the Boston Red Sox in a recent May update.

White, a Vanderbilt commit, has a chance to become the highest-drafted Massachusetts high schooler since the Blue Jays picked Tyler Beede (Lawrence Academy) No. 21 overall in 2011. Beede didn’t sign, instead opting to attend – wait for it – Vanderbilt, where he pitched for three seasons. He was later drafted No. 14 overall by the San Francisco Giants in 2014. 

The last Massachusetts prep first-rounder to sign out of school? Peabody native Jeff Allison, who the Marlins drafted No. 16 overall in 2003 and signed for $1.85 million. 

But White isn’t the only name scouts and front office officials are racing in to see. Fellow prep lefty Alex Clemmey (Bishop Hendricken) has dominated Rhode Island high school hitters this spring and closed the gap on White. Like White, Clemmey is committed to Vanderbilt.

There’s a chance both are drafted within the first two rounds. That’d mark the second time in three years for a pair of New England high schoolers. The Royals selected LHP Frank Mozzicato (East Catholic HS, Conn.) No. 7 overall in 2021 – Kansas City picks eighth this year if they’d like to double up with White – and the Cardinals drafted OF Joshua Baez (Dexter Southfield). 

Prior to that? You’d have to go back to 2004, when the Brewers drafted Maine native Mark Rogers No. 5 overall and the Twins selected Hendricken righty Jay Rainville No. 39 overall. 

Here are some of the top local high school names impressing coaches this spring, plus a 2024 arm to keep an eye on. 

Thomas White, LHP, Phillips Andover (Mass.): White uses his prototypical size, standing 6-foot-5, 215 pounds, to generate mid-90s velocity despite a relatively smooth delivery. He’s dominating local competition, having struck out 69 of the first 108 batters he faced this season. There are some minor concerns about his command and his breaking ball would benefit from professional pitching development and design. Teams are more reticent than ever to use premium picks on high school pitchers, but White has an outside shot at being a top-10 pick. 

Alex Clemmey, LHP, Bishop Hendricken (RI): Clemmey has reportedly touched 98 mph this spring in front of scouts, albeit with a much more effortful delivery compared to White, which generates a bit more concern about his strike-throwing consistency. He could become the third Hendricken product to go in the early rounds of the draft this century, joining Rainville and Rocco Baldelli. 

Hiro Wyatt, RHP, Staples High School (CT): Wyatt is the buzz of Connecticut prep baseball this season, touching 96 mph and pairing it with a vicious breaking ball. He’s committed to USC, but there’s a chance he doesn’t get there based on the amount of attention he’s received this spring. 

Boston Flannery, RHP, Brunswick School (CT): The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Flannery is arguably the most electric two-way player in New England. Most coaches see a long-term future on the mound for Flannery, who sits in the low 90s presently. He is committed to North Carolina. 

Jack Cropper, RHP, Norwood High School (Mass.): Northeastern continues to do a great job recruiting the area and Cropper is the latest. The Norwood native has carried momentum from a successful summer on the showcase circuit into his spring high school season, touching 96-97 mph while striking out 44 batters over his first 18 innings. 

Ben Alekson, RHP, Peoples Academy (VT): Just one Vermont native has signed out of high school over the last 20 years – RHP Owen Kellington, who the Pirates selected in the fourth round in 2021. Alekson has an outside shot to be next. Alekson isn’t as physical as Kellington and doesn’t have the same prospect pedigree, but he comfortably sits in the upper 80s, has advanced command and room to add to his frame.  

Mavrick Rizy, RHP, Worcester Academy (MA): Rizy has emerged as Worcester Academy’s ace this spring, striking out 67 batters over his first 37 innings, including a 17-strikeout no-hitter against Phillips Exeter. Rizy went toe-to-toe against White early in the season as well. The 6-foot-9 righty cuts an imposing presence and comfortably sits in the low 90s with his fastball. Rizy is a 2024 UConn commit and is expected to be a prominent prep arm in next year’s draft.