Bedard: Scorecard time - One alternative to what the Patriots did in the 2023 draft

After each draft, everyone wants to know ... "Well, Bedard, if you're so wicked smaht, why don't you say what you would have done."

We started doing just that last year. It's still very early with that class, but like the Patriots, we had some initial hits (Isiah Pacheco) and misses (Kaiir Elam ... although he finished strong with INT and PBU to help win a playoff game against Miami) but most dealt with typical rookie growing pains. However, all of them made rosters and showed at least flashes. We'll see what happens in another two years.

Let's do it again.

After months, if not years, worth of work, Bill Belichick, Matt Groh and the Patriots made their selections in the 2023 NFL Draft:

1-17. Gonzalez, Christian DB Oregon (TRADE DOWN, gained 4-120)
2-46. White, Keion DE Georgia Tech
3-76. Mapu, Marte LB Sacramento State
4-107. Andrews, Jake C Troy
4-112. Ryland, Chad K Maryland (TRADE UP, sent 4-120 and 6-184)
4-117. Sow, Sidy G Eastern Michigan
5-144. Mafi, Atonio G UCLA
6-187. Boutte, Kayshon WR Louisiana State
6-192. Baringer, Bryce P Michigan State
6-210. Douglas, Demario WR Liberty
6-214. Speed, Ameer DB Michigan State
7-245. Bolden, Isaiah DB Jackson State

We'll see in three years how they did. They certainly put in the work and deserve to see their work through.

I had the Patriots going offensive tackle, cornerback, tight end and receiver with their first four picks. They went cornerback, defensive end, LB/S and center.

Definitely, both the Patriots and myself went in different directions in this draft.

The Patriots picked some good players. Gonzalez, White and Mapu were all on my pre-draft lists. I just would have had different priorities when it came to actually selecting them. Namely, I would have prioritized an offensive tackle and an offensive weapon (tight end). Then I would have gotten around to the other guys on defense, if they were there. 

The proof, as they say, will be in the pudding a few years from now.

Let's add to the pile of second-guessing. After a mere week or two of work on these prospects and not much intelligence available on their intangibles, here are the moves we would have made, had we been in control of the Patriots' draft board.

Would we have taken the trade on the first pick?

FIRST ROUND, 14TH OVERALL

The Patriots are on the clock. We know they had an offer from the Steelers for 4-120.

The math on that deal:

Patriots pick: 325 points
Steelers picks: 296 + 24: 320 points.

Another way to look at it (with different value charts).

Players on the board at 14: CB Christian Gonzalez, OT Broderick Jones, ED Will McDonald, CB Emmanuel Forbes, LB Jack Campbell, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Quentin Johnson, WR Zay Flowers, WR Jordan Addison, CB Deonte Banks, TE Dalton Kincaid, NT Mazi Smith, OT Anton Harrison.

The debate: Would I like to get more out of this pick? Yeah, maybe a little, but it's pretty equitable value. Plus, I know the Steelers are looking for a tackle and the Jets just might be as well, even if there have been reports they would have selected Will McDonald in any event. While Gonzalez is really tempting to take right now and I don't want to risk losing him, if I fall back three spots I'm still going to have a chance at Gonzalez, Forbes, JSN, Harrison and Kincaid if the worst happens. I'm ok with that.

THE MOVE: TRADE DOWN

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FIRST ROUND, 17TH OVERALL

Players on the board: CB Christian Gonzalez, LB Jack Campbell, WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba, WR Quentin Johnson, WR Zay Flowers, WR Jordan Addison, CB Deonte Banks, TE Dalton Kincaid, NT Mazi Smith, OT Anton Harrison.

The debate: Well, this worked out just as I hoped. The Steelers take Jones, the Jets take McDonald and Washington surprisingly makes Forbes the second CB taken. Gonzalez is on the board and the only other debates are with Harrison and Kincaid.

THE PICK: Christian Gonzalez, CB, Oregon.

His size/speed profile and film are too good to pass up. Is he a total home run at this point? No, there are some questions about whether or not he has the mental edge to be a No. 1 cornerback. But it's a small risk given the overall package.

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SECOND ROUND, 46TH OVERALL

I have a ton of later-round picks that are burning a hole in my pocket, and I really don't want to take that many players. I'm eyeing Harrison.

He's available at 27 with the Jaguars, who have already traded down twice. What would that move take? If there's even a chance, I think it would take this year's two and next year's two. I would do that because I really need to get a tackle in now for next year. Would I spend the equivalent of 22nd overall (combining both 2nd-round picks) to draft my OT and possible LT of the future and get them in the program now? Absolutely, but I doubt Trent Baalke would. He'd get killed for going back 20 spots.

But after the first round, I see that there are a ton of TEs on the board, an OT that I like (Matthew Bergeron) and WR Jonathan Mingo. At this point, I have to get a tight end for 2024 now.

I see the run on TEs start at 34, 35 ... I've got to go get one.

My draft capital

TRADE: Green Bay 42 (142 points)
New England 46 (128 points) and 135 (17 points) = 145 points

I'm making the move.

Players on the board: TE Luke Musgrave, CB Julius Brents, S Brian Branch, DE Keion White, OT Cody Mauch, CB Cam Smith.

The debate: I'm helping my offense with zero TEs on the roster for 2024.

THE PICK: Luke Musgrave, TE, Oregon State

Bob McGinn's scouting report:

4. LUKE MUSGRAVE, Oregon State (6-6, 251, 4.56, 1-2): Suered a season-ending knee injury aer catching 11 passes for 169 in the rst two games against Boise State and Fresno State. “In those two games he was totally amazing, and then he ran 4.56,” said one scout. “Now there’s limited exposure to him because he only played in a couple games. In those rst two games I was shocked. He was talented. I had never heard much about the guy.” As a true freshman in 2019 he backed up in 12 games, then was a part-time starter in 2020-’21 before his abbreviated stint as the starter last fall. “He’s more of a complete player than Kincaid,” a second scout said. “That (Oregon State) was more of a pro-style oense. He helped himself down in Mobile (at the Senior Bowl).” Finished with 47 receptions for 633 (13.5) and two TDs. “If Kincaid slips then Musgrave, who’s more of a height-weight-speed prototype, might end up in the bottom of the rst,” said a third scout. “He’s got real size, real speed. What he doesn’t have is the top-notch production. This year he was going to show that he could make contested catches but he got hurt. Very gied. He’s just a well-rounded athlete that just hasn’t put a lot of football on tape yet.” Wonderlic of 30, the highest score among the top 12 tight ends. “I question his durability and the kid a little bit,” a fourth scout said. “Got length (32 5/8 arms), got speed, got hands.” From Bend, Ore.

Brugler:

SUMMARY: A two-year starter at Oregon State, Musgrave was a Y tight end in offensive coordinator Brian Lindgren’s run-heavy scheme, lining up both inline and in the slot. After two seasons as a backup behind two future NFL players Noah Togiai (Philadelphia Eagles) and Teagan Quitoriano (Houston Texans), he became a starter as a junior, but his targets were limited in the Beavers’ run-first offense and he missed almost all his senior year because of injury. An impressive size/speed athlete, Musgrave runs like a gazelle (elite high school track numbers for his size), and his lacrosse and skiing backgrounds translate to football with his core strength and hip fluidity as both a pass catcher and blocker. He blocks with outstanding body control and leverage to be a physical edge setter and engage defenders at the second and third levels, although he still needs to improve his sustain skills and steadiness as a pass blocker (only 5.9 percent of his career snaps on offense came in pass protection). Overall, Musgrave must continue to build up his football resume and overall consistency, but he is a high-level athlete with the route running and blocking talent to be a productive starting combo tight end in the NFL. He should be the first-ever Oregon State tight end drafted in the top 100 picks.

GRADE: 1st-2nd Round (No. 29 overall)

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THIRD ROUND, 76TH OVERALL

Players on the board: S Marte Mapu, TE Tucker Kraft, WR Josh Downs, RB Tyjae Spears, CB Riley Moss, LB Daiyan Henley, LB Trenton Simpson, OT Wayna Morris, TE Darnell Washington, OT Dawand Jones, OT Carter Warren, OT Blake Freeland.

The debate: Double-dipping at TE with Kraft or Washington is tempting, but I'm not in love with anything on the board at this point and I'm confident I can get a developmental tackle a little later. 

THE PICK: S/LB Marte Mapu, Sacramento State

I'm looking for playmakers and this kid has a chance at safety or linebacker with some work. So far I'm 3-for-3 adding possible impactful-type players at different spots.

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FOURTH ROUND, 107TH OVERALL

Players on the board: C Jake Andrews, OT Dawand Jones, K Chad Ryland, et al.

The debate: In this area, I don't really care about his issues, including medical, or that he loves basketball. Jones is 6-8 and 370 pounds. The possible upside is too great to pass up here.

THE PICK: OT Dawand Jones, Ohio State ... Carter Warren would be the other guy if the character stuff is really that bad. I'm not leaving without an OT.

Bob McGinn: 

6. DAWAND JONES, Ohio State (6-8, 374, 5.36, 2): Biggest man in the dra. “He’s so enormous and I love watching him play,” one scout said. “I was scouting the other guy, Paris Johnson, but I couldn’t take my eyes o Dawand. Some absolutely love him and some think he’s absolutely no good. It’s a strange thing. He does have some character issues.” Started just one of 15 games from 2019-’20 before starting 25 games at RT from 2021-’22. “He has just dominating strength,” a second scout said. “He’s a big guy that actually plays big. His bend for his size is amazing. He’s got great feet. He’s crazy long. His hand use is really good. He’s light on his feet. His punch is ridiculous. He’s really similar to the best Mekhi Becton played in college (at Louisville) but he’s more dominant. You can see the basketball player in him.” Fielded mid-level Division I basketball oers aer a top-notch career on the court for Ben Davis High School in Indianapolis. “I think he likes basketball more than he likes football,” said a third scout. “I don’t know if he really likes football.” Arms (36 3/8) and hands (11 5/8) were the longest at the combine. His Wonderlic score of 11 was the lowest of the top 12 tackles. “He just wins with his size,” said a fourth scout. “He does stay on his feet for the most part but reaching guys, adjusting, space, slide, all that, he just struggles to do that. How much of that will transfer? Zach Banner was so big and had those limitations, too, and he just kind of bounced around.” Made a terrible post-Day 1 impression at the Senior Bowl and then at pro day. His weight of 374 at the combine didn’t thrill scouts, either. “He was listed at 359 (in the fall),” a h scout said. “That (374) scares me. When a guy gains weight before the combine that shows you how much pride he has. Next thing you know he’s going to be 400.”

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FOURTH ROUND, 117TH OVERALL

Players on the board: K Chad Ryland (projecting he's available for 5 spots), OL Sidy Sow, OT Carter Warren, QB Jake Haener, LB Nick Herbig, WR Tyler Scott.

The debate: Fine, I'll give Bill his kicker here, but I'm not trading up for him.

THE PICK: K Chad Ryland, Maryland.

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FOURTH ROUND, 120TH OVERALL

Players on the board: OT Carter Warren, QB Jake Haener, LB Nick Herbig, WR Tyler Scott, QB Clayton Tune, QB Aidan O'Connell, QB Dorian Thompson-Robinson.

The debate: I'm going offense again and I'm going with my big upside/draft binkie in Tyler Scott. The dude is explosive on film.

THE PICK: WR Tyler Scott, Cincinnati.

McGinn:

10. TYLER SCOTT, Cincinnati (5-10, 177, 4.42, 3-4): Third-year junior hardly played as a freshman, made eight starts in ’21 and posted big numbers in ’22. “More of a No. 3ish kind of guy,” one scout said. “Kind of cray. Good hands, great feel. Not really explosive or a top athlete but just one of those dudes that will make it as a slot and special teamer.” Vertical jump of 39 1⁄2. “I could see him being in the third round because he’s been kind of an underground sleeper, for whatever reason,” said a second scout. “A lot of people in the scouting fraternity don’t know how good of a player he is.” Finished with 87 receptions for 1,439 (16.5) and 14 TDs. “He’s an enigma to me,” a third scout said. “I thought he was one of the fastest and most explosive players in the dra. I was highly disappointed in his 40 time. I thought he’d be like a 4.32 guy. That hurt him, and his hands aren’t consistent.” From Norton, Ohio.

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SIXTH ROUND, 184TH OVERALL

Players on the board: LB Zaire Barnes, OT Jaelyn Duncan, WR Kayshon Boutte, QB Tanner McKee, OL Luke Wypler, 

The debate: Maybe a future QB or another piece, but Duncan has way too much upside to pass at this point.

THE PICK: OT Jaelyn Duncan, OT, Maryland.

He's a bit of a project, but that's why I hired Adrian Klemm. He now gets two rookie tackles to mold.

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SIXTH ROUND, 184TH OVERALL

THE PICK: WR Kayshon Boutte, LSU.

Worth the lottery pick.

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SIXTH ROUND, 192nd OVERALL

THE PICK: P Bryce Baringer, P, Purdue.

Sure, need a punter. I'm on board.

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SIXTH ROUND, 210th OVERALL

Players on the board: WR Demario Davis, RB Deuce Vaughn, RB Zach Evans, CB Ameer Speed.

THE PICK: RB Deuce Vaughn, Kansas State.

Sorry, I'm robbing the Cowboys of their viral moment. And I'm sick of running it back with JJ Taylor. Time for a new little back.

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SEVENTH ROUND, 245TH OVERALL

THE PICK: Isaiah Bolden, CB Jackson State

Always like cornerbacks and I'm fine with the Patriots' assessments.

So in the end, this is my draft class (no trades):

Patriots' picks and trades:

1-17. Gonzalez, Christian DB Oregon (TRADE DOWN, gained 4-120)
2-46. White, Keion DE Georgia Tech
3-76. Mapu, Marte LB Sacramento State
4-107. Andrews, Jake C Troy
4-112. Ryland, Chad K Maryland (TRADE UP, sent 4-120 and 6-184)
4-117. Sow, Sidy G Eastern Michigan
5-144. Mafi, Atonio G UCLA
6-187. Boutte, Kayshon WR Louisiana State
6-192. Baringer, Bryce P Michigan State
6-210. Douglas, Demario WR Liberty
6-214. Speed, Ameer DB Michigan State
7-245. Bolden, Isaiah DB Jackson State

Which one ya got?!