The Celtics lost Game 1 to the Joel Embiid-less Sixers. It’s a loss that has unleashed a storm of anger and frustration around town and condemnation of the team and the coach.
And I get it. It’s frustrating to watch these guys sort of meander their way through a winnable game, letting another team missing a key player pick up a win against them. They seemed to believe that giving up points didn’t matter much because they’d be able to score on the other end. All Boston had to do is sit back and let the misses happen naturally, score, and be done with it.
Well, the thing about the NBA is that momentum can be one hell of an equalizer and confidence can make even a mediocre pro look like an All-Star. The Sixers have a lot of guys who are better than that, including former MVP James Harden, who can put together some pretty nice runs and buck whatever common knowledge or preexisting notions might exist.
So what do the Celtics do from here? The Sixers will likely be without the newly-minted MVP Embiid for Game 2, so Boston has to get ready for another dose of the faster, more spread out Sixers. The way I see it, there are three options of varying degrees.
1. Do nothing different.
Don’t scoff. Boston had a four-point lead and they can blame themselves for things like live-ball turnovers and a late scoreless stretch that kept them off the scoreboard for way too long.
It’s not ridiculous to think, “Hey, let’s just do what we did but do it better and we’ll be fine.”
That, of course, means more forceful double-teams on Harden when they choose to go for those. They can’t be casual about the doubles, and they have to be on point behind that with their communication. This can’t happen:
This whole thing sucks.
Marcus Smart isn’t forcing the ball out Harden’s hands as much as he’s giving Harden an option to make a play.
Why is Jaylen Brown stapled to his guy on the baseline? He can take a step up and be in the way of any pass thrown to Paul Reed while still being in position to guard De’Anthony Melton.
Why is Al Horford sliding with Harden instead of blitzing him? Once Smart is there, just attack and make Harden uncomfortable.
I hate all of it. This has to be better. And it can be in almost every way.
The Celtics can be more cognizant of where the Sixers' role players are, focus on being up on them on the catch, and not let them get such free looks. They can be aggressive with the doubles on Harden knowing he’s not going to be quick enough to escape them all. Just don’t foul and it can be effective.
So they can very easily run the same game plan at the Sixers and feel okay about it working.
They gave up 119 points. If they're stronger on Harden and he has 30 instead of 45, if they're stronger on the role players and each of those guys hits one less bucket, and if they're more careful with the ball and they don’t give up 20 points off turnovers, the Celtics can feel pretty good about holding the Sixers closer to 100 points.
It’s not outrageous to think the same game plan but, you know, actually executed well could work out fine.
2. Play Harden straight up and live with the results while staying home on the role players.
The Celtics have a lot of good defenders to throw at Harden, and they can mix a bunch of them to throw Harden different looks. Maybe Boston goes with Jayson Tatum on Harden straight up and maybe Smart can check Tobias Harris.
I’m sure Harden will look for switches, but the times Tatum takes that challenge, he can just check Harden without help. Tatum has the foot speed, length, and instincts to challenge Harden and make life tough. Smart on Harris is fine because maybe it’ll bait the Sixers into Harris taking more shots.
And hey, if Harden is hitting, then so be it. How much better is Harden going to be than 45 points on 56.7% shooting and hitting half his 3-pointers? Even if he matches that, it won’t matter if Tyrese Maxey is held in check. It won’t matter if Melton is 2-6 from 3 instead of 5-6.
At this point of Harden’s career, these kinds of games are more aberrations than the norm, so play him straight up, stay home on the other guys, and run off whatever misses there are. The more Harden shoots, the more likely the other guys are to take quick or bad shots when they finally touch the ball.
Also, be sure to attack Harden on defense to further defend him with your offense. Test his cardio and resilience. Maybe he’ll go cold late in the game and the Celtics can pull away.
3. Start Robert Williams and move Al Horford to the bench
Horford was a -17, a rare night where he had the worst +/- on the team. Harden went at Horford every chance he got and it worked.
With Horford in drop coverage, he is retreating to a point where Harden is walking into shots. With Horford switching, he’s just too slow to react to Harden’s stops and starts, leaving his challenges too short to bother Harden at all.
Let’s be clear: When Embiid comes back, Horford would slide right back into the starting lineup to match up with him. That's where Horford’s true value lies in this series.
But with Embiid out and the more athletic Reed in there, the Sixers are quicker and tougher to keep up with. By starting Robert Williams against Reed, the Celtics put a disruptive defender on the floor to break up any lobs thrown his way while being springy enough to challenge shots on switches that Horford was missing.
Again, Harden’s just not as quick as he used to be, and Rob can switch onto him and be a threat to challenge the shot while keeping a safe enough distance to avoid the blow-by.
Horford can come off the bench when Harden is out and force the younger Jalen McDaniels into tough decisions guarding the perimeter. Horford can still be a spacer and effective defender on the second unit while Williams’ athleticism and fear factor could deter some of the looks Philly was getting.
I’m not even opposed to a Horford DNP in this scenario. The Celtics can go ultra-small too with Tatum as the big and be fine against those bench lineups. Grant Williams, who I admit looked pretty lost in his minutes in Game 1, can play some small ball big like the old days.
I can absolutely see the justification for going with Robert Williams in the starting lineup while Embiid is out. In that scenario, he’ll be extraordinarily helpful. And if Horford sits out a game, he’ll just get some extra rest to get ready for the physical matchup against Embiid whenever he’s back.
In fact, I can see the justification for any of these three options. What that generally means is that we could see all three deployed at some point. Tatum getting more turns on Harden with significantly fewer, but still some double-teaming is something we could see. Robert Williams starting the second half could be a wrinkle depending on how the first half goes.
Adjustments aren’t all-or-nothing propositions. Horford could start and get subbed out two minutes into the game and it basically amounts to sort of starting Williams. So the Celtics have a few options to go to in Game 2 without going into a full overreaction.
Now that the sting has worn off, the Celtics can look back on Game 1 with a clear head. It was absolutely a missed opportunity and a disappointment, but how much they have to change is up for some debate. It might be time to see if trying to just execute better will work early on, and if not, start working in some of these, and other, adjustments.
“I think our guys have been in this situation a lot,” Joe Mazzulla said at the team’s Monday media availability. “I think the most important thing is understanding what we have to do better and do it for longer stretches of the game. And we just have to have the mindset of, like, when we’re at our best this is what we do. And we’ve gotta stick to it for longer stretches.”