Boston Celtics vs. Philadelphia 76ers
Eastern Conference Semifinals
Regular season: Boston 3-1
Schedule:
Game 1: Monday, May 1, 7:30 p.m., TD Garden (TNT)
Game 2: Wednesday, May 3, 8:00 p.m., TD Garden (TNT)
Game 3: Friday, May 5, 7:30 p.m., Wells Fargo Center (ESPN)
Game 4: Sunday, May 7, 3:30 p.m., Wells Fargo Center (ESPN)
Game 5*: Tuesday, May 9, TBD, TD Garden (TNT)
Game 6*: Thursday, May 11, TBD, Wells Fargo Center (ESPN)
Game 7*: Sunday, May 14, TBD, TD Garden (TBD)
* If necessary
Philly’s path to this point: The Sixers finished third in the East, winning 54 games and boasting the league’s third-best point differential (+4.3, behind Boston (+6.5) and Cleveland (+5.4)). They swept the Brooklyn Nets in the first round.
Injuries: The Sixers have listed Joel Embiid as doubtful with a right knee sprain. The sprain is in the lateral cruciate ligament (LCL). The LCL connects the femur (thigh bone) to the fibula (lower leg) on the outside and is responsible for outside stability in the knee. Initial reports listed it as a grade 1 sprain, but there are reports that it’s worse.
James Harden isn’t listed on the injury report but concerns over his strained Achilles tendon linger. It’s either still bothering him, or he’s facing the lingering cardiovascular effects of not being 100%. Either way, he shot 23% in the paint against Brooklyn, and that's just not going to cut it against Boston.
The Celtics enter the series with no one outside of Danilo Gallinari on the injury list. Jaylen Brown’s hand seems to be fine, and he was shooting without any kind of wrap on it after practice on Sunday.
The strategy
Boston
Offense: They need to play with good pace for the whole game. If Embiid is on the floor, test his cardio (and Harden’s) by making them get up and down the floor. Really wear them out as much as possible. Put them in as many actions as you can and force the Sixers to help them both out to create scoring opportunities. The Sixers will break down with Harden on the floor and there will be no help if Embiid is limited or off the floor.
Defense: If Embiid plays, they have to stay home on him and not let him get shooters going. I say it all the time against the Sixers: I don’t give a damn if he scores 50. Hold the rest of the team to 50 or less and you have a chance to win. Embiid dropped 50 against half-assed defense and half the team sitting in their final regular season matchup and Boston still only lost by two. In this series, they’ll throw varying double teams at him, dig when he dribbles, and be more physical with playoff-level defense.
If he doesn’t play, then they can play a more switching defense. In fact, if Embiid is out, I might consider starting Robert Williams to put pressure on Paul Reed to make choices at the rim defensively. Williams would also provide valuable rim protection against Harden and Tyrese Maxey, letting the rest of the perimeter defense hang with shooters on the perimeter to make sure the Sixers don’t crush Boston from deep.
Philly
Offense: With Embiid, it’s simple. Run a lot of high-post stuff with him, draw bigs away from the rim, run some cutting actions to clear help defenders, and let the big guy cook. He can be a beast off one or two dribbles and live at the free throw line.
Without Embiid, the offense goes more into Harden’s hands, though it should run more through Maxey. Either way, the Sixers will try to attack the switches with slips and cuts and be entirely perimeter-based. They’ll become more pick-and-roll heavy, so the Celtics will have to be aware of over-helping and getting burned by 3-point shooting.
Defense: With Embiid, the Sixers will funnel everything into the middle where the Celtics will be met with one of the best paint defenders in the league. Philly will chase pick-and-rolls over the top, pushing the Celtics into long 2-pointers and rely on the Embiid fear factor to keep guys like Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum from getting to the rim.
Without Embiid, we might see a bit more zone to maybe bait the Celtics into quick 3-pointers and hope they go cold. We’ll see them put Harden on Marcus Smart and then let him roam and hopefully snag a steal or two in passing lanes. Everything will be geared towards 2-point jumpers.
The X Factors:The coaches, Grant Williams, Georges Niang, PJ Tucker, Tobias Harris
A lot has been made of the coaching, with Joe Mazzulla getting the rookie treatment and Doc Rivers getting blasted for a lack of adjustments.
Will Mazzulla see the matchups he needs to put on the floor in real time? Will he be too slow and have it cost him a game? Will he process what’s happening in the moment and come up with a counter?
On the other side, will Rivers be able to come up with the changes he needs to make to take advantage of Mazzulla if Joe is slow to make adjustments? And does Doc have enough to throw at Boston where Mazzulla’s inexperience will cost the Celtics more than one game?
On the court, Grant Williams has the potential to be a big factor in this series. After minimal use in the last series, Williams can be used to be physical and switch from Embiid to Harden to Tucker on a single play while being a 3-point threat who spreads the floor on the other. Williams’ strength and versatility fits well against the Sixes, and I’d expect him to get a lot of minutes.
Could Mazzulla go with a weird wrinkle and start Grant Williams instead of Derrick White?
For Philly, Niang’s shooting can make or break the Sixers. They need someone to spread the floor and hit a bunch of 3s, but they also need to keep that person from being a liability on defense. Can Niang step up? Can Tucker? He made a huge difference in that last game in Philadelphia, hitting a bunch of shots from the corner. I know that game was not indicative of much in this series, but it does tell us that overreacting one way could open up Tucker to hit a bunch of shots.
And Harris is the ultimate wildcard. They need someone to defend Tatum and Brown, and Harris is going to have to be able to check one of those guys while still hitting shots on the other end. If he can’t do a bit of both, the Sixers are toast. At the very least, he needs to bother one of the Jays to level the playing field.
How I think it will go:
I’m legitimately concerned for Joel Embiid. That's not an injury someone should play through. It can get worse, and in a worst-case scenario, it could lead to something catastrophic.
If he decides to play, then the Celtics should test him immediately. Get him into actions and hit him with screens to his left so he has to push off on the right leg. Put Horford on the left side of the floor so Embiid is spaced out and then drive to Embiid’s side. Either he will have to work hard to get over, in which case Horford will have open corner 3-pointers, or Embiid won’t get there in time and Boston gets to the rim with ease.
However it goes with Embiid on or off the floor, Boston has the matchup to counter. They can spread the floor if they want, they can throw Robert Williams into the dunker spot with Reed on the floor and live off alley oops, or they can run pick-and-rolls and let Rob clean up the offensive glass if he doesn’t get the ball.
Defensively, they have a long history of defending the Sixers well even with a healthy Embiid.
Even the Sixers people I’ve talked to acknowledge this is the worst possible matchup for Philadelphia, and the injuries and limitations they have made it worse.
I still don’t trust Boston with a healthy lead in a game or the series, so I can see this playing out in similar fashion as the last series. I don’t think the Sixers win either of these first two games. I think they can win one in Philly, and then I can see Boston relaxing again when they shouldn’t. I think Boston has every matchup they need to make this a comfortable series, as long as they don’t get too comfortable along the way.
Celtics in 6.
For more, here’s my series preview with the hosts of the Locked On Sixers podcast, Keith Pompey (beat writer for the Philly Inquirer) and Devon Givens (of Philly’s 97.5 FM).