Ahead of next week's draft, let's break down the biggest additions to the Patriots: WR Juju Smith-Schuster, TE Mike Gesicki and the two veteran OTs, Riley Reiff and Calvin Anderson. We'll provide strengths, weaknesses, injury history, film analysis, fit projection and the bottom line of the signings.
We'll start with Smith-Schuster, who is basically an even swap with Jakobi Meyers. There are plusses about that move for the Patriots, but also some minuses.
TALE OF THE TAPE
RELEVANT STATS
Final 3 games of 2022: 7 catches, 83 yards, 0 TDs
Final 3 games of 2021: Injured (shoulder).
Final 3 games of 2020: 18 catches, 176 yards, 2 TDs.
Final 3 games of 2019: out 2 games (knee) - 4 catches, 28 yards, 0 TDs
PLAYER STRENGTHS
Big, thick, and physical player who knows how to use his body to shield defenders in order to make catches. Very good hands. Drops are not an issue. Breaks tackles after the catch with regularity and can get up to speed quickly. When healthy, he's got a deceptive burst and his releases off the line are very good. Good vision with the ball in his hands. Smart and professional on the field. Knows the offense and how to diagnose coverages quickly, and then adjusts the route. Expert at finding voids in zones. Willing blocker in the run game. Bread and butter are hitches, slants and in the seam. Workhorse in middle of the field. Great at backshoulders on boundary in shorter yardage.
WEAKNESSES
Not overly explosive or a difference-maker. Won't worry defensive coordinators at all. Not a big scoring threat outside the red zone. Route running is very iffy at the top of routes, although that could have to do with knee and ankle injuries that he tends to suffer as the season goes along. His route running is much better when healthy (see videos below). Route effort his pre-determined by his role on the play. When he has a primary route and a chance to catch the ball, he throttles up. If he's a decoy, his effort is mediocre.
INJURY HISTORY
For his age, it's fairly worrisome, and a reason why he hasn't had much interest now three years running (three successive one-year contracts: back to Pittsburgh, Chiefs and now New England).
- DraftSharks gives him a 91% chance of injury (I mean, it's football ... wouldn't that be the case for every football player?) and projects him to miss 3.6 games in 2023.
- 2022: After missing several training camp practices with a knee injury, played 16 of 17 regular-season games, left AFC Championship with knee injury. Returned for Super Bowl in a move that was lauded by QB Patrick Mahomes.
Missed a $1 million playing-time incentive due to injury in AFC Championship Game.
- 2021: Missed 12 games going on IR with a shoulder injury.
Only received one-year contract offers as a free agent and reports said it had to do with his knees:
Smith-Schuster hitting the market and getting one-year offers was among the most surprising developments of free agency. Maybe it shouldn’t be, since many teams viewed Smith-Schuster as a good No. 2 — which, in this depressed market, doesn’t pay.
But multiple sources said the 24-year-old’s health will be something to watch after some knee concerns have persisted from the past two seasons.
In 2019, Smith-Schuster missed four games with a knee injury and concussion. He missed several practices last season with the knee injury designation, and sources say he’s received frequent treatment for knee-related issues, which makes them wonder about his long-term durability going forward.
This was an injury report from The Athletic before the 2021 season:
- IRC = Injury Risk Category (Low, Elevated, High) — the overall likelihood a player will get injured
- HPF = Health Performance Factor (Peak, Above Average, Below Average, Poor) — our metric to predict player performance
- ORT = Optimal Recovery Time — the amount of time a player needs to fully recover from an injury (not the same as how much time they will actually miss)
IRC: High (29%) — HPF: Above Average (77%)
JuJu’s IRC is higher than any other player I can find who played in all 16 games and didn’t undergo an offseason surgery. He finished as a Top 20 receiver last season but didn’t ever show that he can put up WR1 numbers in any week. His knees are clearly an issue. He missed four games in 2019 with a knee sprain and then battled a knee injury for much of the 2020 season. Smith-Schuster also had a foot injury, hamstring strain, groin strain and multiple concussions during his NFL career. His ceiling is low and the Steelers should be more balanced this year with the addition of Najee Harris. Based on our projections, I don’t see him as a Top 100 player this season.
- 2020: Healthy.
- 2019: Missed 4 games (knee).
WHERE DOES HE FIT?
Straight up slot in this offense with a chance to win a matchup on the boundary against a smaller receiver on 3rd and short yardages.
FILM ANALYSIS
Super Bowl
AFC Championship
Week 7 vs. 49ers
BOTTOM LINE
This really comes down to how healthy Smith-Schuster is for the balance of the season. He was a different player against the 49ers. The player in the playoffs looked 35 years old (I was shocked he's going to be 27 and the same age as Meyers). If the Patriots are getting the 49ers Juju, he's a definite upgrade over Meyers. Just has more giddy-up and ability after the catch. That should not be discounted. It's sizeable. Meyers was like a lawn dart (with a nice vertical jump, however) after he caught the ball.
I don't have any concerns about Smith-Schuster fitting in or getting the offense. I do have a lot of concerns about him keeping his legs healthy for an entire system, and how an injury would impact the offense. I would get getting a young slot receiver out of this draft and ready to go.
Big picture-wise, I don't understand this move by the Patriots. This reeks of the Patriots making a crappy contract offer to a proven, veteran slot receiver (ask Wes Welker and Julian Edelman about that), the player not quickly accepting it, and Bill Belichick throwing tantrum and moving on to what he feels is an equitable player. It's almost the exact same situation as Welker, and Belichick quickly moved onto Danny Amendola. That initially pissed off Tom Brady, and Amendola — another oft-injured player from the outside — didn't have a great start to his Patriots career with 4 games missed in 2013 and he caught 3 passes for 77 yards in two playoff games (lost at Denver). Some viewed Amendola as a bust in his first couple seasons, but he redeemed himself starting in the 2014 playoffs.
The decision to turn their back on Meyers, who is beloved in the locker room and a great example of earning what you get by working your tail off, hasn't gone over well with some in the locker room.
Belichick could come out smelling like a rose on this one, but it's all going to be on Smith-Schuster's health. If he's healthy for most of the season, he should make the Patriots better. But if his legs aren't 100 percent all season, people are going to be asking, 'Why did we let Jakobi go again?'
