Donnelly: The keys to the Bruins’ first-round series against the Panthers

The Bruins will open up the first round of the 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs against the Florida Panthers on Monday at TD Garden.

SERIES SCHEDULE

Game 1: Monday, April 17 at 7:30 p.m. AT BOSTON (TV: NESN, ESPN, Sportsnet | RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 2: Wednesday, April 19 at 7:30 p.m. AT BOSTON (TV: NESN, ESPN, Sportsnet | RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 3: Friday, April 21 at 7:30 p.m. AT FLORIDA (TV: NESN, TNT, Sportsnet | RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 4: Sunday, April 23 at 3:30 p.m. AT FLORIDA (TV: NESN, TNT, Sportsnet 1 | RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 5: Wednesday, April 26 TBD AT BOSTON (TV: TBD | RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 6: Friday, April 28 TBD AT FLORIDA (TV: TBD | RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub)
Game 7: Sunday, April 30 TBD AT BOSTON (TV: TBD | RADIO: 98.5 The Sports Hub) 

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The wait is over. The 2023 Stanley Cup Playoffs are here.

The Bruins face the Florida Panthers in the first round in just the second postseason meeting between the two franchises.

Florida knocked off the Bruins in five games in the opening series of what ended up being a rat-filled run to the Stanley Cup Final in 1996. The Panthers lost to the dynastic Colorado Avalanche by way of a sweep. 

It took the Bruins 13 seasons to win more than a single round. When they did, they marched to a Stanley Cup in 2011. Since 1996, Boston has won 17 series. As for Florida, they didn't advance beyond the first round until last season, defeating the Washington Capitals in six games. 

Organizational trajectories aside, the two clubs have had very different paths this season alone. 

The Bruins' season needs no introduction, between the 65 wins, the wins record, the points record and everything that comes with all of it. David Pastrnak's 61 goals, Linus Ullmark's triple-crown season, the returns of Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci as well as a breakout for Pavel Zacha all helped buoy a historic run for the Black and Gold. 

Throw the 3-on-3 overtime and shootout results out the window, and Boston was 54-12. No one was better. The Edmonton Oilers were the closest to the B's orbit with 45 regulation wins. 

No one allowed fewer goals per game (2.12) and only the Oilers scored more than the Bruins' 3.67 goals-for per game. 

Like the sideshow 3-on-3 and shootout, Boston's regular-season accomplishments have all been defenestrated. 

"The record is 0-0," Brad Marchand said Sunday at Warrior Ice Arena. He added, "The regular season's one thing, you're playing for the opportunity to be in this position."

In the other corner, take the Panthers.

The Cats ran amuck through the league last year, taking the Presidents' Trophy, just as Boston did this season. An offseason blockbuster that centered around  Jonathan Huberdeau and MacKenzie Weegar to Calgary in exchange for Matthew Tkachuk shook up both teams. 

Not unlike the rats many moons ago, Florida squeaked into the playoffs. The math was not in their favor, sitting just 24-22-6 at the All-Star break, but the Panthers rattled off an 18-10-2 run to close out the year. A 6-1-1 end to the regular season secured the last playoff spot in the East. 

"They're a little different team than they were last year with the trade they made with Calgary," said Neely. "I think they got a little bit more grit and agitation up front. They've got a very good offensive team that we've got to be aware of and we've got to make sure that we are disciplined and stay out of the penalty box."

If it's grit and agitation up front you're looking for, see Tkachuk, who instantly stepped in to lead the Panthers with a career-high 109 points (40g, 59a) in 79 games. Only one other player had at least a point per game and 100 penalty minutes. That man would be Ottawa captain Brady Tkachuk. Runs in the family. Matthew's teammate, Brandon Montour, wasn't far behind in that unique distinction with a breakout season of 73 points (16g, 57a) and 107 penalty minutes in 80 games on the blue line. 

Beyond those outputs, one of the biggest reasons Florida finds itself here is Alex Lyon. The journeyman netminder went 9-4-2 with a 2.89 goals-against average and .914 save percentage, by far the best run of his stints in the NHL. Lyon, 30, started every game of the 6-1-1 finish to the regular season. The six wins were all consecutive, and he didn't surrender more than two goals during that run until the finale against Carolina. 

The season series went the Bruins' way, for the most part, as they took a 2-1-1 advantage. The Panthers were one of two teams to beat Boston twice in the regular season, joining Ottawa. 

"They're a good team, and they played us well this year," Charlie Coyle said Saturday. "They beat us a couple times and we beat them a couple times. So, it's going to be a great battle. It's not going to be easy by any means. It's just going to be a rough and tough series, and we're ready for it."

There was a 5-3 win at home, a 5-2 loss on the road, a 7-3 win at home and a 4-3 away loss in overtime. 

"It was pretty tight," Bruins coach Jim Montgomery said Saturday. "You look at the four games, it was a real tight series. Every game was tight. They're a good hockey team. They were in our shoes last year as Presidents' Trophy winners. And I think that since the All-Star break, the record is one of the top six teams in the league."

Here are the keys to the series for the Bruins...

Health

Alarm bells sounded around Boston after Patrice Bergeron missed a second-straight practice on Sunday.

The captain hasn't played since the first period of Thursday's regular-season finale in Montreal, exiting with an upper-body injury out of precaution.

The Bruins maintain that it isn't anything serious. 

"Taking an extra day again today," Bruins general manager Don Sweeney said Sunday, noting it's a combination of illness and injury. Jeremy Swayman was sick on Sunday, and Tomas Nosek did not play in Montreal due to illness. Sweeney said there isn't anything going around the room that he's aware of. "If [Bergeron] feels well enough, he'll play. ... Patrice doesn't need extra days of practice. If he feels better, he'll play."

Team president Cam Neely said, "He's feeling fine. He's good."

Montgomery said Saturday they gave Bergeron extra rest. Marchand, who left Saturday's skate early due to soreness, told reporters Sunday that he feels good and expects Bergeron to play Game 1, "It's not a big deal. He's taken rest days throughout the year to make sure he's feeling good. If someone's not feeling well at this time of year, it's great to have the opportunity to rest up and prepare.

He added he expects Bergeron to play Game 1, "Yeah. I think he's just sick or something."

If Bergeron can't go, it'll be Pavel Zacha centering Marchand and Jake DeBrusk. Tyler Bertuzzi would flank Krejci and Pastrnak on the left of the second line. Not having No. 37 would certainly be less than ideal, but Zacha, as well as Coyle, has shown capable of moonlighting as a top-six center in recent weeks as Boston rested players.

"A lot [of confidence in Zacha at center]," Sweeney said. "With [Krejci] coming back in to go back with his line, Pavel's assumed a lot of those responsibilities and he's handled it well. ... We've played different games without Patrice this year and all those guys have stepped in, but that's to be decided. So, we're not focused on that.

"Obviously, Pavel gets some reps that are much needed to play with Jake and Brad because he hasn't played a lot with them, and Charlie Coyle has moved around there as well. That's not something we're overly concerned about at this point."

Krejci missed the last six games of the regular season. No. 46 returned to practice in his usual spot on the second line. Montgomery said earlier in the week he feels he'll be good to go.

“He’s a playoff-only guy,” Montgomery quipped. “He’ll be ready.”

In goal, Ullmark also returned to practice after leaving Tuesday's game against Washington due to precautionary reasons. 

"I'm feeling great," Ullmark said Sunday. "[Tuesday] was just precautionary, nothing else than that."

It also looks as if Boston could see the returns of Nick Foligno and Derek Forbort, with Foligno returning to his post at fourth-line left wing and Forbort re-assuming the left side of the third pair next to Connor Clifton. Both players feel good to go.

"I think I've made all the threats I need to make to everybody, so hopefully that did the trick and I'll be back for Game 1," Foligno said Saturday.

Forbort said, "[I feel] pretty good. Feels a lot better. ... [Timing] feels O.K. It felt good to get into a scrimmage today and kind of test it in some game-like situations. So it feels good."

If Bergeron and Foligno are both in, Trent Frederic is the likely odd man out. If Bergeron is out, Frederic will stay alongside his familiar linemates in Coyle and Taylor Hall, who is also working back up to speed since returning to injury. With Forbort back in the mix, Matt Grzelcyk was on the extra defense pair with Jakub Zboril this weekend. Swayman is ready and waiting if Ullmark truly tweaked something against Washington.

"Extremely [comfortable with our depth]," Neely said. "We've shown it all year. We've had a lot of players in and out of the lineup this year, and the record speaks for itself. Our depth is as good as it's ever been."

Meanwhile, for Florida, its reliance on Lyon partially resulted in Sergei Bobrovsky missing time due to illness down the stretch. It likely cost the Russian the starting job, at least at the start of the playoffs. The Panthers have also been without Sam Bennett, who has been out of the lineup since March 20th. Bennett traveled to Boston, but is not expected for Game 1. He's a reliable, edgy part of the top nine, and chipped in 40 points (16g) in 63 games. 

Test the goaltenders

Lyon will likely be the Game 1 starter. He's never played in an NHL playoff game.

The Yale product has only appeared in 39 NHL contests, and his 15-game run this season is the longest leash he's gotten at the top level. 

Among goaltenders with at least 15 games, Lyon ranks seventh in goals-saved above expected per 60 minutes (.504), and his counterpart Bobrovsky checks in at 28th (.131). Compare that with Ullmark's league-leading .883 and Swayman's third-ranked .715. 

Lyon ranks 20th in wins above replacement (1.26), compared to Ullmark (7.07, 2nd) and Swayman (4.00, 8th). Bobrovsky is 23rd (1.03). 

Lyon's run of late has been impressive, but whether it's advanced metrics or traditional stats like save percentage and goals-against average on the season as a whole, Ullmark and Swayman have a decided advantage over Lyon and Bobrovsky. Bobrovsky would have the other three beat in overall experience on his career, though. 

With no Spencer Knight, currently in the NHL/NHLPA player assistance program, Bobrovsky is Florida's only contingency plan. He hasn't come close to the player Florida thought it was handing $10 million per year for seven years. In now four seasons with the Panthers, his best save percentage was a mediocre .913 marker. The other three sat at .906 or worse (.901 this season). His goals-against average has ballooned above three twice in four seasons, and his best mark with the Cats so far is 2.67 (last season). This year, "Bob" is at 3.07.

It's not much better in the postseason for Bobrovsky, whose best run came in 2018-19 when the Columbus Blue Jackets made it to Game 6 of the second round before bowing out to the Bruins (6-4, 2.41 GAA, .925 save percentage).

In 51 career playoff appearances, the 34-year-old is 17-29 with a 3.13 GAA and a .901 save percentage. He's posted a save percentage higher than .910 and a GAA below 3.00 in just two of his nine postseasons. 

Boston saw Lyon and Bobrovsky each once in the season series. 

Bobrovsky gave up four on 33 shots in the B's 5-3 win on Oct. 17. His expected goals-against was 2.45. Two of Boston's goals were high-blocker as the Russian was tracking the play moving toward his glove side. 

In the 4-3 overtime loss on Jan. 28, just two of the Bruins' goals actually came off their sticks (Bennett deflected one). One was a shot to the blocker side and the other came from a Pastrnak shot that found its way through plenty of bodies in front, including Zacha and Krejci.

"[Lyon] has had a great two-month run here," Montgomery said. "Might be the biggest reason why they're in the playoffs. So, there's a confident goalie that we're gonna have to get in front of and make sure he's finding it hard to see the puck like he's been seeing it."

The bottom line is, the Bruins need to get pucks and bodies to the net, no matter who's between the pipes for Florida. 

Contain Matthew Tkachuk, Aleksander Barkov, Brandon Montour and so on

Florida loves to attack using its speed in transition, and there's no shortage of offense up and down the roster.

There's Tkachuk, of course. Barkov was over a point per game with 78 (23g, 55a) in 68 contests. Caarter Verhaeghe might have had the quietest 42-goal, 73-point season in the league. There are Sam Reinhart's 31 goals. Seven skaters reached at least 15 goals. Eight hit at least 40 points. 

“They confuse mostly with their routes, and combine that with elite speed and hockey IQ,” Montgomery said. “They’ve got a lot of players. [Anthony] Duclair’s very dangerous on the third line. [Ryan] Lomberg, everyone thinks of Lomberg as an agitator, but this guy makes a lot of plays. He had 12 goals. And again, elite speed.”

Montgomery noted Florida's "X-plays" with crossing routes on the rush.

"I think they're playing faster," he said. "Their transition offense is something that has been excellent for three years and continues to be so."

Montour has offensively led a defense that doesn't hesitate to jump in and make plays. After his 73 points, Gustav Forsling put up 41 from the backend, and Aaron Ekblad, the typical headline-grabber on that blue line, had 38. 

"Brandon Montour's an elite skater and a very, very competitive player," Montgomery said. "He's so active because he's such a gifted skater. You got to make sure you're aware of them almost like a forward, not a defenseman cause he jumps into the play consistently. His instincts are really good, and he trusts his instincts.

"He's someone that with the minutes he plays, you know, that we have to wear on him make him defend, make him play down low."

The Panthers ranked sixth in goals per game (3.51) and had a top-10 power play (22.8 percent). The message for the Bruins is to take care of the puck.

"Any little breakdown, any turnovers, they're coming right down your throat and they'll make you pay," Coyle said. "So, those are things that we have to make sure we're clean with and make sure we're just responsible with the puck."

Foligno said, "I think we've always been committed to defense, and that's going to be an area we have to really focus on with that group. ... It's bode us well all season long and we have to make sure we stay with that. It's kind of the backbone of who we are."

Given the way the defense group is shaping up with Forbort trending toward playing in place of the mobile Grzelcyk, Boston has no shortage of bigger bodies to try to stymie the likes of Tkachuk and Barkov down low, whether it's Charlie McAvoy, Dmitry Orlov, Hampus Lindholm, or Brandon Carlo.

"I know [Tkachuk] a little bit. He's obviously the emotional leader of that team," Forbort said. "He's one of the better net-front players in the league. You've got to do a good job of taking away his stick and boxing him out."

Take advantage of a below-average defense and penalty kill

Florida has had its fair share of keeping pucks out of its net, even aside from the question marks in goal. 

With defensemen like Montour, Ekblad and Forsling activating offensively, there are holes to exploit going the other way. 

Ekblad has struggled without Weegar as a defense partner this season. The Cats have just a 46.85 goals-for percentage at 5-on-5 with Ekblad on the ice, compared to 62.62 last season. Expected goals-against are up to 56.54 as opposed to 40.83 in 2021-22. They have a 27-26 (50.94 percent) advantage in high-danger goals-for, compared with 33-22 (60 percent) last year.

The Panthers give up quite a bit in Grade-A ice. In the season series, the Bruins held a 52-39 (57.1 percent) advantage in 5-on-5 high-danger chances. 

The Bruins scored eight of their 5-on-5 goals against Florida either between the dots or around the crease. Boston got suckered into trading chances at times against the Panthers, but for the most part, the B's got whatever they want around the dirty areas, based on these heat maps from the four games.

The Bruins have succeeded in transitioning in their own right against Florida, taking advantage of Ekblad and the aging Marc Staal, for example, not exactly the most fleet of foot. The Panthers have been caught chasing when Boston's been able to hem them in, Radko Gudas in particular, and turnovers and poor positioning have cost Montour as well.  

The Bruins must take advantage of power play opportunities as well. Boston's man advantage is working at a 46.2 percent clip since the start of April, regaining its form at a good time. 

"I think they're playing confidently. The puck is moving quickly, bodies are moving and there's a great convergence at the net. Then you couple that with, I think our breakouts and entries have been really good here lately. That means you're going to get a lot of zone time if you're doing those two things, and we always win face-offs because we have Bergeron."

Florida took a total of 388 penalties this season, only the Senators (389) took more. Did I mention there's a Tkachuk on each team?

Regardless, if the Bruins can frustrate the Panthers and go a man-up, they absolutely have to take advantage of Florida's middling 75.9 percent penalty kill, which ranked 23rd in the league. 

"Stay in the moment"

The above phrase has been practically every other sentence out of a Bruin's mouth this season. 

No team was better at responding to a loss, as Boston went 14-2-1 following a loss of any kind this season. The Bruins lost consecutive games in regulation just once, two in a row as part of a 1-3-0 six-day stretch in early March. 

There's talk of the Presidents' Trophy "curse" and going the way of the 2018-19 Tampa Bay Lightning, the 1995-96 Detroit Red Wings or other historic teams to have fallen short. Boston can't concern itself with any of the noise.

"It's funny. When things go really well, someone needs something negative to talk about, so added pressure is going to be one of them," Neely said. "You know, this group in here has been pretty good at staying in the moment. You know, they think about, the task at hand, and they've done that well all year."

Montgomery mentioned in March that Boston had looked at certain stretches as best-of-seven segments to continue to find motivation. As much as it might have been downplayed – Swayman said in Montreal, "We took five minutes and celebrated [the records], then we moved on," – the chase for history could have added fire as well. 

"One of the things that I think really helped us this year was the fact that there were some other things to try and achieve in the regular season, that if maybe they were out of reach, we might not have had a strong finish, just based on where we were in the standings so early," Neely said.

The current task is the Florida Panthers, and Boston can't afford to look ahead or behind.

"Everyone's really proud in this room," Marchand said. "Everybody dreams of the opportunity to play in the Stanley Cup Playoffs. Everybody understands that. They know what the stakes are. There's a long road to get to that point.

"Right now, it's still day to day and we don't want to change anything we've done all year, we just want to continue to prepare the same way. I think that's a great mentality for the guys to have and one we're focusing on."

Stats via Statmuse, MoneyPuck and Natural Stat Trick.