Through the first week or so of the 2023 season, the Red Sox were ranked 14th in the American League in starters ERA (8.01), an ominous showing to be sure.
Yes, it's (very) early in the season, and it's dangerous to read too much into performances in April, especially when it comes to pitching. At this point, starters are still building arm strength and are dealing with cold weather conditions. Some Sox starters have yet to make their second start.
But if the Red Sox are going to become contenders in the highly competitive American League East this season, they're going to need far more from their rotation going forward. The lineup looks to be improved and the new emphasis on putting the ball in play and prioritizing on-base skills have provided some optimism there. What's more, the bullpen has been a positive, too, though it's hard to think that will continue if the starters don't provide more innings. Nothing cooks a bullpen's effectiveness like overuse.
There's also the recognition that the rotation the Red Sox have run out to the mound in the first 10 days is in no way representative of what they envisioned or, for that matter, what they will soon deploy.
On Tuesday, Garrett Whitlock is set to join the rotation in the second game of the team's four-game series against Tampa Bay. That, in turn, will likely result in Kutter Crawford being shifted back to the bullpen.
That same night, Brayan Bello will make what is expected to be his final rehab appearance for Worcester, pitching for the team's Triple-A affiliate. Assuming he suffers no setbacks and is able to ramp up to six innings or close to it, Bello could be back pitching for the Sox by next weekend.
Presumably, that will mean that Tanner Houck will go from the rotation to the bullpen to accommodate Bello. Houck was told over the winter that he could be used as either a starter or reliever, but to prepare to start, since it's always easier to build arm strength and then adjust to whatever role is required. Houck would likely be used in a multi-inning capacity, but not in the same way that Zack Kelly or other long relievers are utilized; instead, Houck could be used in, say, both the seventh and eighth and serve as a bridge from the starter to closer Kenley Jansen.
Finally, also waiting in the wings is lefty James Paxton, who is set to face Buffalo for Worcester on Sunday, is perhaps two -- or a maximum of three -- rehab outings away from fully building up sufficiently to be added to the parent club's roster. Paxton has pitched less frequently than Chris Sale over the last three seasons -- a total of 2.12 innings -- but after the Red Sox signed him to a complicated contract two years ago, they may finally be close to getting some contributions out of him. At the very least, they're intent on finding out what -- if anything -- he can provide.
Paxton's return, even if it's 10 days or so away, will result in the toughest personnel call yet for Red Sox management. We know that Paxton himself won't be used in relief, since he's never done that for so much as a single pitch in his major league career and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom effectively ruled that scenario out during spring training. That makes sense -- given how much work he's put in his comeback effort, it would make little sense to ask him to perform a role he's never experienced at the age of 34.
The guess here is that Paxton will bump Nick Pivetta to the bullpen, and it will be interesting to note Pivetta's reaction to the demotion. During spring training, he confronted a reporter who had appeared on the MLB Network and predicted -- before injuries hit the rotation -- that he, Pivetta, could be the odd man out and land in a relief role. Weeks later, he pushed back against Alex Cora when he was tabbed as the No. 5 starter instead of No. 4. (The Sox had slotted Crawford fourth, in recognition of the fact that the team might have to lean more on its bullpen on days he pitched and did not want him pitching in front of No. 1 starter Corey Kluber, whom the Sox are protecting and managing his early-season workload. The slotting was, in fact, a compliment. and illustrated the faith the Sox had in him to provide innings. Nonetheless, Pivetta saw this is a slight).
Before the season even began, the Sox believed that their starting pitching depth had improved, and there's evidence to suggest that's true. Healthy, the Sox can count on nine starters with some major league experience: Kluber, Chris Sale, Houck, Crawford, Pivetta, Whitlock, Bello, Paxton and Josh Winckowski. That headcount doesn't include the likes of Bryan Mata, or Chris Murphy and Brandon Walter, all currently waiting in the wings in Worcester. None of the latter three have pitched in the big leagues, but the expectation is that any or all could make their debuts in 2023.
A rotation featuring Sale Kluber, Whitlock, Bello and Paxton is a formidable one, assuming the starters stay healthy. That may prove unlikely, given the injury history of Sale, Kluber and Paxton. For those three in particular, it would seem a pipe dream that none spends time on the IL going forward. But again, the presence of Houck, Crawford and Winckowski promises some suitable depth options, certainly far more than in recent seasons.
The point? While the Red Sox starters have been shaky to date, this is hardly the finished product. If the Sox can stay near .500 until the rotation is settled, it could bode well for their effort to compete in the second half of the season.
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Over the winter and throughout spring training, Kiké Hernandez bristled when the topic of his ability to perform as an everyday shortstop was broached.
Hernandez would be sure to point out that he had played shortstop his entire life, that it was his original position, and that he had merely had the misfortune to have played on teams (Dodgers, Red Sox) who boasted Corey Seager and Xander Bogaerts.
When the Red Sox identified Hernandez as their replacement for Bogaerts -- at least for 2023, in the aftermath of the elbow surgery performed on Trevor Story -- it set in motion a lot of other moves. It effectively meant that Christian Arroyo would move to second base, and it sent them in search of a center fielder. In the final week of January, the Sox signed Adam Duvall to play the position that had been handled by Hernandez in each of the previous two seasons.
A lot, then, rode on the Sox' confidence in Hernandez's ability to play shortstop, despite the fact that he had never started more than 17 games there in any single major league season. So far, his play at short has produced far more questions than answers.
Through the first eight games, Hernandez has committed five errors -- four on throws. He's skipped throws in the dirt on plays that appear relatively routine. And when he's had to go into the hole, Hernandez's long throwing motion -- an over-the-top release -- allows runners a better chance to beat out ground balls.
A week and a half is too soon for the Red Sox to panic. There's a strong chance that Hernandez can correct some of these early-season issues with more experience and can work through some of these shortcomings. He's a good athlete and over time, should improve.
If he doesn't however, the Red Sox have a big problem on their hands.
* Story isn't likely to be cleared to play in the field until perhaps August, if not later. He could be available to DH prior to that, but that wouldn't address the issue.
* Christian Arroyo probably lacks the range to make the shift to the other side of the bag. And even if he proved adequate at short, his move would only open a hole at second base. Maybe Hernandez would be better suited for second -- the position the Sox originally intended him to play when they signed him prior to the 2021 season -- where the throws aren't as demanding. But this seems like a mere shuffling of the middle infield deck that doesn't fully correct things.
* Yu Chang could perform the job defensively, but in parts of five seasons, he's shown little offensive aptitude with a lifetime average of .211 and a career on-base percentage of .276.
* Adalberto Mondesi would be the perfect replacement were he not currently on the IL through the end of May after the Red Sox, in a roster crunch to start the season, placed him on the 60-day IL. Mondesi is an elite defender with plus-plus speed and occasional pop, but has never demonstrated the ability to stay on the field for an extended period of time.
* David Hamilton is on the team's 40-man roster and has split time between second and short in his minor league career. But evaluators have long had doubts about Hamilton's ability to play short full-time -- at least on the big league level -- and despite being 25, is spending his first week at Triple A currently. His blazing speed -- he swiped 70 bases in just 119 games at Double-A Portland last year -- would be welcome, especially in a season in which stolen base attempts are expected to skyrocket. But he has yet to demonstrate that he can Triple-A pitching, much less pitching in the big leagues.
* Ceddanne Rafaela, also part of the 40-man, is thought to be a plus defender at both center and short, and there's little question he could handle the job from a defensive standpoint. Several scouts have stated that Rafaela is a good enough defender at either position to be able to play in the majors now. But his offense is another matter altogether. The Sox were concerned enough about his habit of expanding the strike zone that they assigned him to Portland to begin the season. If he wasn't ready for Triple A, he certainly isn't ready to succeed at the plate in Boston.
The Red Sox could look outside the organization and trade for a shortstop, but deals in the first month of the season are notoriously rare and would likely involve the team overpaying for a depth piece, only to have that player turn into a spare part when Story is cleared to return.
In other words, there are no easy solutions here, beyond the hope that Hernandez, over time, grows more comfortable and improves his throws.
It's not great, but it serves as a cautionary tale that perhaps the Red Sox shouldn't have put so much faith in a player who has mostly been a super-utility weapon rather than a dependable everyday performer.
