The Celtics still have an outside shot at regaining the top seed in the Eastern Conference, something they have said they wanted.
“When Milwaukee took the No. 1 seed from us after the break, it was sort of a shock to us that we had dropped because we had created some separation between us and them,” Malcolm Brogdon said after the win over San Antonio. “That's something we want, we want the No. 1 seed. I think this team understands the importance of having homecourt advantage in the playoffs so that's something we are going after.”
Can they get there? It’ll be tough. Here’s a look at the path.
Step 1: Celtics have to be perfect
If they really are going for the top seed, there's no room for error. There are seven games left to make up a two game gap. Asking the Bucks to go 5-2 over that stretch is a lot, asking them to go 4-3 to compensate for another Celtics loss somewhere in the next two weeks is a bit much. Boston can’t drop a game like tonight’s in Washington where the C’s are fully healthy and the Wizards are without Bradley Beal and Kyle Kuzma. Lose that game and kiss the top seed goodbye.
Here’s Boston’s remaining schedule:
Tonight at Washington, Thursday at Milwaukee, Friday vs. Utah, Tuesday 4/4 at Philadelphia, Wednesday 4/5 vs. Toronto, Friday 4/7 vs. Toronto, Sunday 4/9 vs Atlanta
Can they sweep that? Sure they can, but it won’t be easy. The back-to-back against Utah will be tough, though Boston has some revenge motivation there. A back-to-back against Toronto will be tough, as is the home double matchup.
There are a couple of things working against Boston there. The back-to-back could be tough, though they have been pretty good on the second night of those games. It’s also tough to beat a team twice in these kinds of series, and the Raptors are in a seeding fight for the play-in tournament. Those will be tough games.
Atlanta is also in a play-in seeding fight, so these are going to be some motivated teams down the stretch.
Step 2: Boston has to win Thursday
That game is for the tiebreaker, and is the key to all of this. Boston’s best chance is to tie the Bucks and win the tiebreaker because they will have a 2-1 record against Milwaukee. If Boston loses Thursday, then forget it. That’ll be too much to overcome.
The good news is Milwaukee will be on a back-to-back. Any little bit helps.
Step 3: Milwaukee has to lose once more after that
A win in Milwaukee Thursday will make up one full game and give them the tiebreaker. If the Celtics can close the season on a 10-game winning streak, they’d just need Milwaukee to drop one more to catch up.
Where can that happen?
Here’s what they have left:
Tomorrow at Indiana, Thursday vs. Boston, Sunday vs. Philadelphia, Tuesday 4/4 at Washington, Wednesday 4/5 vs. Chicago, Friday 4/7 vs. Memphis, Sunday 4/9 at Toronto
The Sixers are a tough matchup for the Bucks. I think Philly understands they're not going to get the second seed now. A three game deficit against the team that holds the tiebreaker means the Sixers have to be four games better than Boston over the last seven and that's just not going to happen. Still, Philadelphia is now trying to hold off the Cavs, who are 1.5 games behind them, so there's still something to motivate them over these next couple of weeks.
The back-to-back against Chicago has some difficulty to it. The Bulls have been playing okay lately and they're trying to maneuver in the play-in tournament, so that's probably no gimme.
Memphis could be an interesting game. I don’t think they're fighting for anything but the whole Ja Morant saga could be motivating him personally and this would be a hell of a message for the Grizzlies to send everyone in an “us against the world” type of game.
It won’t be easy, and the Celtics made this tougher on themselves than it needed to be. This is the time of year where you look back on things like Grant Williams missing two free throws against the Cavs and how much that win would have helped. The bad losses like the one in Houston stand out as well.
Would the second seed be so bad? No, not really. If Miami grabs the sixth seed, then none of the play-in teams worry me at all. Brooklyn, Toronto, Atlanta, and Chicago are all very beatable. Boston would be favored in a second round matchup against Philadelphia, and the Sixers really have no answer for Boston’s offense if the Celtics are clicking. And then an ECF in Milwaukee would obviously be tough but Boston can win on the road so stealing home court back is possible.
Is it the easiest road? No, but it’s not a killer road either. They’d be fine as the second seed, but if they want that top seed, there is still a path to getting it. And honestly, I’m fine with them feeling like they have to play perfect basketball over the next few weeks. It’ll get them into the habit of playing like they need to in the playoffs. I’m not mad at them feeling like they have something motivating them to play better.
