We could write a column criticizing Bill Belichick's over-emphasis on special teams in the modern game, but that's like shooting fish in a barrel (we'll have more on that below).
We wrote it in 2017 before the season ended with the Nick Foles-led Eagles running up 538 yards, 63 percent third downs and 41 points when players like Marquis Flowers, Jordan Richards and Jonathan Bademosi were on the field for big spots in Super Bowl LII. And we've written more about it over the years, especially around cutdown day, as the actual competitive special teams snaps dwindle with each passing year, yet Belichick remains unchanged in staffing those spots.
With Matthew Slater, Cody Davis, Chris Board and Brenden Schooler back for fourth down, Belichick might have even out-Belichick'd himself this season in that regard.
Another example, especially to the "Robert Kraft is to blame" crowd, that Belichick is just being Belichick again. Yeah, I'm sure Kraft is texting Belichick to fill out his roster with the best special teams players he can find. That will fill the Kraft family coffers.
But we digress.
What really has my attention at this point is the Patriots' situation heading into 2024 stemming from a question in our weekly member chat:
It seems that BB is unwilling to make serious financial commitments for 2024. Patriots have around 140 to 150mil for 2024. Do you see a 2021-like reset or does this mean they like many of their 2024 pending free agents like Henry, Onwenu, Dugger, Uche and want to re-sign them?
- Miikka89
BSJ members ... not just a hat rack on top of their heads.
Maybe I've been too focused on what Belichick is doing to get his groove back after two losing seasons in the last three years, but this caught my eye. It's not unusual for the Patriots to have $100 million projected cap space the following offseason (off the top of my head, it has happened often). But it's the totality of the 2024-25 situation that is very curious to me.
Some of the more interesting tidbits
- They have only 35 players signed for '24. Extremely low for them this time of year.
- Patriots have $133.6 million in cap space, which is third in the league. That's a lot for them.
- As it stands right now, and obviously extensions are possible, the list of Patriots 2024 free agents is formidable: two key young defenders (Kyle Dugger, Josh Uche) 3/5ths of starting offensive line (Mike Onwenu, Trent Brown, Riley Reiff), both tight ends (Hunter Henry, Mike Gesicki), two key receivers (DeVante Parker, Kendrick Bourne) most linebackers (Ja'Whaun Bentley, Raekwon McMillan, Mack Wilson). That's a lot of key players and some whole position groups with a bare cupboard a year out.
- The number of players who will be entering the final year of their contract a year from now (2025 free agents) is basically everyone else of substance: Mac Jones, Matthew Judon, Davon Godchaux, Jonathan Jones, Deatrich Wise, David Andrews, Adrian Phillips, Rhamondre Stevenson, Lawrence Guy, and Christian Barmore. All told, 15 UFAs that played at least 30 percent of snaps. Eight played over 50 percent.
- They will need to make a decision on Mac Jones' fifth-year option by early May '24 or he's a free agent in 2025 like Daniel Jones was this year.
I'm always about giving you all sides, even if they don't fit my argument. So I have to state that we've been here before with this team a few times in recent years where, at one point in the offseason, they were projected to have ridiculous cap space, including last offseason.
And it would be quite easy for the Patriots to gobble up that cap space next year and start eliminating future free agents as soon as they start doling out extensions (and it's evidence of how Belichick could have easily put more into this year by easily pushing cap into next year, but he chose not to). And Belichick could indeed be getting to worrying about the future as soon as he's done with free agency here soon (key the obvious and easy Bentley, Wise, Andrews and Phillips extensions).
I readily admit all of that. And if I had to wager over at FanDuel ($200 in bonus bets if you sign up and wager $5!) over what's going to happen next, I would put my money on Belichick moving on to lock up some key people and using that 2024 cap space in the next couple of months.
But the other side of my brain can't help but put some puzzle pieces together that lead to this question ... has Kraft told Belichick this is a make-it-or-break-it year for him?
Again, let me state that this is long odds and no one has told me this — not that anyone would say anything since Belichick's contract and future are better-held secrets than classified documents out of the West Wing.
But hear me out ...
- Kraft was already unhappy with the direction of the team and moving on from Brady, and a year ago he said unprompted that he expected to win playoff games as soon as that season.
- The Patriots finished with a losing record for the second time in three years because Belichick put Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in charge of the offense. The Krafts were as dubious as anyone but said, "Ok Bill, you've earned the right to make that decision, but we expect accountability." It was a debacle that led to serious internal issues with the players, including the first-round QB.
- The Krafts always talk about their other businesses and how they manage them the same as the football team. They're 25-26 since Brady was allowed to leave and 27-32 with zero playoff victories dating back four years to the 2019 collapse — and they've finished weakly the last four seasons. If one of the Krafts other businesses was trending down for four straight years, how would they feel about that leader?
- The Krafts heard the disenchantment about this season and immediately sent an unprecedented email to season ticket holders as soon as it ended, reading in part: "Our expectation was to perform better throughout the season and to advance through the playoffs. We can assure you that no one in our organization is satisfied with the results from this past season. ... In the weeks ahead, we will be making critical evaluations of all elements of our football operation as we strive to improve and return to the playoffs next year.”
So if the Patriots fail to advance to the playoffs this season — New England is currently 13th in AFC odds, and 4th in the AFC East at +700 (3rd place Miami is +370) — what is the Krafts' response ... a quicker, longer email to season-ticket holders. This is the second straight year Belichick has been put on notice.
Third strike and he's out?
Put all the puzzle pieces together and this is how the picture looks to me:
Kraft and Belichick met and the owner was not happy. Kraft didn't want to move on from Belichick, but reserved the right to make a change if Belichick didn't admit the error of his ways — all of which is true.
Belichick fell on the sword, admitted his fault with the offense, vowed to right the ship and to bring in Bill O'Brien and other changes Kraft would like to see (Jerod Mayo's retained for long haul).
But Belichick believed he was on the right track with the team. The 2021 record of 10-7, after just one rebuild season in 2020, would have been built upon if not for his admitted critical error, and he wanted another swing to see his vision through. The defense was good enough with a better offense. The offense with a few additions and a new coach will be good enough. Special teams will be improved. What they both believed in, fiscal steadiness and a strong overall team, can still win in today's game and the 2023 Patriots would show that.
Kraft was dubious given the bottom-line results dating back to 2019 and how things ended for other legends like Don Shula, Tom Landry and Chuck Noll, but thought Belichick had earned the right to see his vision through and to weather one huge mistake (some would argue there have been many more, including Brady).
So Kraft gave the green light with one caveat: we'll back your vision this season and you are free to do whatever you want to the roster, but you have to leave it clean for 2024 in case this doesn't work.
We want you to succeed this season and break Don Shula's record on the Patriots' sideline, but if there's another losing season, we may decide to turn it over to Jerod Mayo (only reason why he would pass on a head coach interview elsewhere in my opinion) or O'Brien. They, in concert with whoever they handpick to lead the front office, will decide on the quarterback and will be free to construct the roster according to their vision. If they want to rip it down to the studs and take a different approach, they will be free to do that. If they want to load up up on offense and forget about special teams, they will have every option available to make the Patriots a contender in 2024.
If you're right, Bill, you are free to write your own ending — including breaking Shula's record — like Tom did. But we're not committing to anything beyond this season.
I mean, if Belichick and the Krafts planned out a possible transition year for him — and it's important for Belichick that the Patriots are in position to be successful after he departs — the blueprint would look exactly like the snapshot you see now.
Another alternative: Belichick just wanted one more run in 2023 to see his vision through and has already agreed to step aside win or lose for Mayo. I have a harder time believing that considering Belchick is just 19 wins from passing Shula.
The bottom is, given the previous four seasons, how they've gone about this offseason, all the important decisions on the horizon for 2024, and the two straight years of putting Belichick on notice, it's difficult for me to see the Krafts just huffing and puffing for show a third time next offseason if the Patriots have another losing season.
Maybe I'm just naive and just have too faith in the Krafts, and Belichick just hasn't gotten around to 2024 yet but will soon.
It is all curious, however. More than normal.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Thank goodness the Cowboys traded for Brandin Cooks, taking that pointless option off the table for Belichick and the Patriots. The compensation: a 5th-round pick in 2023 and a 6th-round pick in 2024 for Cooks and eating $6 million of his $18 million salary. That was a rerun that looks good on paper, but not in big games. Patriots need a gamer.
2. The compensation should be a rude awakening for the Cardinals in regard to DeAndre Hopkins. They will be getting much less than the 2nd and another pick they were looking for. It's good news for the Patriots, who are waiting out the market on Hopkins and Odell Beckham Jr. from what I'm told. Dallas is now out on both.
3. Fun facts that may only interest me: According to OverTheCap.com, Cooks is set to make $121,371,864 over his 11-year career when his contract ends in 2024.
Julian Edelman made $41,172,487 in 12. Puts the Jakobi Meyers situation a little bit in perspective, Felger.
But Bedadh ... one was a first-round pick, it skews things. Why do you have to hate on Belichick all the time?!
Last six years of each player's career:
Cooks $101.5 million
Edelman $31.9 million (starts in 2015 ... Edelman had 105 catches in 2013).
4. Fun facts that may only interest me #2:
2003 Patriots
Combined punt returns with opponent: 88
Combined kickoff returns: 137
Total special teams plays: 225
Offensive plays: 1,052
Defensive plays: 1,038
All plays: 2,327
Special teams share: 9.7 percent
2021 Patriots (decent offense, Jake Bailey kicking off)
Combined punt returns with opponent: 44
Combined kickoff returns: 80
Total special teams plays: 124
Offensive plays: 1,042
Defensive plays: 1,060
All plays: 2,226
Special teams share: 5.6 percent
Do we think Belichick's roster and monetary allocations to special teams have declined at a similar rate?
Oh, and the two last-place teams in Rick Gosselin's special teams rankings a year ago were the Chiefs and Eagles. The best team in special teams was the Texans.
Look, I don't hate on special teams and they can make the difference once you are a true contender, but first you have to get there. Great special teams on an average team is a waste.
5. Yes, the Raiders' decision to basically swap Darren Waller for Meyers makes a lot of sense from the Raiders' perspective, especially with a guy who didn't outwardly appear like he was on the program given his hold-in during camp and subsequent injury that severely limited his impact.
Waller
31 years old - missed 15 games the last 2 seasons
5 TD’s last 36 games
83 catches, 1,053 last two seasons
Dubious buy-in, scheme fit
Meyers
26 years old
6 TDs last season
150 catches, 1,670 yards last two seasons
100 percent buy-in and team fit.
Raiders also gain $5 million in cap space and a third-round pick to help the defense.