Obviously things can literally change at any second, but through the first 10-plus hours of NFL agency, the Patriots have been ... quiet.
New England picked up a seventh-round pick to dump tight end Jonnu Smith after he produced 55 catches and 1 TD in two seasons. That cost the Patriots nearly $27 million in cash, and another $12.8 million in cap space this season.
They made their biggest move to date re-signing defensive back Jonathan Jones to a modest 2-year, $19-million contract. He definitely wanted to stay here, but he obviously wasn't blown away by anything on the market at that price. Good for the Patriots, mistake for the rest of the league. The Patriots retain a secondary leader as one goes out the door (Devin McCourty), and that's important. Jones can play anywhere in the secondary, so that gives the Patriots cover.
"I think it will depend on who’s there…Pats believe in putting the best players out there," McCourty said on Twitter about Jones' future position. "My guess is he plays a few different roles to start."
Jalen Mills chimed in at one point ... "Y’all know I really play safety right?"
Yes, Jalen, we've mentioned a few times that we'd start there — especially if they can land a CB1.
McCourty's absolutely right, as usual. If the roster stays the same, the Patriots will take a look at Mills, Jones, Myles Bryant (if he's back on an RFA tender) and Joshuah Bledsoe at free safety and fit the pieces with box safeties Adrian Phillips and Kyle Dugger, and perhaps others (Jabrill Peppers is a FA). They do this across the roster.
The Patriots also re-signed DT Carl Davis, who is an important role player against the run (and the Patriots don't have anyone else for that role). That's in addition to the previous re-signings of similar role players like LB Raekwon McMillan, C/G James Ferentz, OT Conor McDermott and STer Matthew Slater.
So, to this point, it's been a steak-and-potatoes start to free agency in New England.
Meanwhile, in the AFC East, the Jets are rumored to be closing in on Packers QB Aaron Rodgers, which would change the landscape dramatically if it indeed does happen. And not only did the Dolphins trade for Rams CB Jalen Ramsey to pair with DBs Xavien Howard, Jevon Holland and Kader Kohu, but they got a good deal on Titans speedy LB David Long to fill Vic Fangio's toolchest, and signed Jets' QB Mike White to back up Tua Tagovailoa. The good news in the division? The Bills were weakened a bit with LB Tremaine Edmunds going to Chicago.
So, to recap the events so far ... the AFC East largely got tougher, and the 8-9 Patriots are treading water.
And that hasn't appeared to go over well in most parts of Patriots Nation, especially those that hoped the Patriots would just into the top of the market for impact players at positions of need. But...
OTs Mike McGlinchey, Jawaan Taylor, Kelvin Beachum, Andrew Wylie and Andre Dillard (Patriots were reportedly in on him) are gone.
LBs Edmunds, Long, TJ Edwards, Germaine Pratt, Alex Singleton and Quincy Williams are off the board.
CBs Ramsey, Jamel Dean, Cameron Sutton and Patrick Peterson have found new homes, and safety Jesse Bates got a huge deal from the Falcons.
And the Patriots have been extremely quiet.
What does that mean? What does New England's approach say about how they view themselves? Are the Patriots falling further behind?
Most of you are probably not going to want to hear this, but I wouldn't overreact ... yet. Yeah, 2021 was awesome when the Patriots were swinging deals left and right yearly, and it's no fun being a wallflower at the dance — especially when your neighborhood buddies are dancing with girls left and right. And over at Fanduel.com, the Patriots are 13th out of 16 teams in AFC odds, ahead of only the Titans, Colts and Texans.
But the simple answer is ... there are still plenty of avenues for the Patriots to get better, even in free agency.
If they, say, signed Chiefs OT Orlando Brown, traded for Cardinals WR Deandre Hopkins and LB Isaiah Simmons (hey, let Bedard dream, will ya?) or Denver's Jerry Jeudy, signed TE Mike Gesicki and added CB Marcus Peters or Byron Murphy — and they're all still available — then things would look a lot different. There would be a run on the Belichick GIFs that people used all the time when the Patriots were winning. Belichick and the Patriots would be "back." That can still happen.
Now, I don't expect all or any of those things to happen, but there are plenty of nice pieces out there (receivers have barely moved, and safety and tight end have nice inventory), and the price should be dropping by the hour as some start to panic — not that I'm an advocate for skimping on money.
But what has become clear today is something I've talked about this offseason: the Patriots don't think they are in the dire spot they were in 2021 when they NEEDED to import talent to the roster. They only want a few things, and still have some nice draft capital to continue laying in young talent, something that was also desperately needed.
What that also means is that Belichick is basically saying, 'Last season was on me. I screwed up, lets resume where we were.'
Two years ago they were 10-7 and in the playoffs with a lot of new pieces. Last season, there should have been improvement to around 11 wins and at least being competitive in a playoff game except for Belichick's Blunder. Now with Bill O'Brien and a real offensive line coach on board, they believe they have the pieces to resume their ascension even if it was unnecessarily delayed for a year.
We might disagree on that, but I can definitely see the Patriots feeling that way internally. You have to remember that no one has more confidence in their system and coaches than the Patriots. And, no, the presence of TB12 doesn't factor into that thinking.
Belichick was wrong last season, but that doesn't mean he's going to be wrong again.
A lot of things can and will happen in the next couple of days. And all quiet on the Patriots' front usually means they're working on a few things (I wouldn't automatically leap to HUGE things). I know it hasn't been much fun to this point (like most years other than 2021), but there's still long way to go ... and Belichick might be right about this team. He's been correct a lot more than he's been wrong over the years.