With NFL free agency set to start on Monday with the legal tampering period at noon, you hear a lot of chatter this time of year from fans.
The Patriots need to do this if they want to compete.
I want them to go get X, Y and Z to be a contender.
Heck, I've said similar things. There are definite needs that I have for them, and I want some other things.
But what any of us say is just chatter, noise. The only thing that matters is what Bill Belichick thinks the Patriots need to get better. And no matter how much chatter you hear on sports talk radio, Robert Kraft is not going to influence what the Patriots do.
How does Belichick view things each offseason? Every case is unique, but the important thing to remember is something I heard Mike Lombardi, the long-time Belichick confidant, say a few times over the years:
There's a difference between need vs. want. A need is something that must be addressed to compete. A want is something you’d like to address but it’s not pressing. However, it could present itself if there's a slow market or some other circumstance.
Remember the great free-agent splurge of 2021? That wasn't a Want spending spree. They needed, if not had, to do it because the roster was in complete disrepair.
They added Nelson Agholor and Kendrick Bourne at receiver because they had N'Keal Harry, a failing Julian Edelman and a bunch of nobodies.
They added Jonnu Smith first to a roster with Ryan Izzo, Devin Asiasi and Dalton Keene, and used a Want to get Hunter Henry (thank goodness) when his market didn't develop.
Matthew Judon arrived to take over for an illustrious edge group of John Simon, Chase Winovich and Shilique Calhoun.
Jalen Mills was added to a mix that had Jason McCourty and Stephon Gilmore on their way out.
The Patriots may have been 8-9 and posted their second losing season in three years, but I don't think the Patriots think they're anywhere near the same spot. And most importantly, you have to remember this when it comes to where the team is now: Belichick knows the offense was on him last year, that the talent (yes, Mac Jones) is better than it showed, that Bill O'Brien and Adrian Klemm will fix a lot, and Belichick getting out of the offensive meeting room will help the defense and special teams.
In short, they are banking on a lot of internal improvement to get them back to where they were after 2021 at 10-7 and in the playoffs. Still, Belichick will have his Need and Want list.
I certainly have my annual needs list, which we'll update below. I think the Patriots need certain things to truly compete in the division and the conference. Sometimes my view aligns with Belichick. Often he zags or pushes things off. More often in recent years, they have paid for that due to increasing shortsightedness.
So what do the Patriots think they NEED? What should they WANT? What clues have we already seen that should inform us about this offseason?
Let's start with the current depth chart (open in another tab for larger, or click here):
BEDARD'S PATRIOTS NEEDS LIST
How I think the Patriots view their needs vs. want
I'm not going to pretend to tell you that I have great information on the Patriots' plans this offseason. More than usual in recent years, the Patriots are staying pretty quiet. And what you should always remember is, especially with the Patriots, if something's out there, it's because they want it out there.
NEEDS
Cornerback: I do think they'd like to upgrade here and I think they'll be aggressive. Might not work, but they'll try. The retirement of Devin McCourty complicates things a bit. Unless they just bring back a retread like Duron Harmon for free safety (definite possibility), they might have to dip into their cornerbacks to initially fill the free safety role with a possible draft pick added. Myles Bryant is a restricted free agent and there's no word yet on his tender, which must come before the start of free agency. He has the most experience playing there on the roster, but he's small. I do think Jalen Mills would be a consideration along with Adrian Phillips, whose lack of speed isn't ideal for how the Patriots play. Joshuah Bledsoe will get a shot.
A year ago going with Mills, Jonathan Jones, Bryant and then one of the rookies if they popped. With injuries, it wasn't ideal the way it played out and now they're almost definitely losing Jones (although I could definitely see Belichick being swayed by the early faux performance on the defense). How much do they trust Jack Jones after his suspension? Do they think that Marcus Jones is definitely ready to take over the slot?
It would make things a lot easier and give the Patriots room to maneuver their depth chart if they imported a veteran No. 1 corner.
I think they do take trade swings at Jalen Ramsey and Darius Slay but if they want a new deal, no thanks. I don't see them being in on top free agents like Jamel Dean or Cameron Sutton, but veterans Patrick Peterson and Marcus Peters, and under-the-radar players like Byron Murphy, Sean Murphy-Bunting, Emmanuel Moseley could be more their style.
Receiver: From what I understand, the Patriots internally go back and forth on this. Obviously it comes down to The Big Man. A lot of this comes down to Jakobi Meyers. If he returns on a close-to-market deal this goes from a Need to Want. I think the Patriots roll with what they have and look to the draft with DeVante Parker, Meyers, Kendrick Bourne, Tyquan Thornton and a draft pick. In that case, I think they add a mid-priced veteran like Braxton Berrios, Mack Hollins, Darius Slayton. I think Parris Campbell gets overpaid early like Christian Kirk last year If you want change for this group, you should be rooting for Meyers to leave.
That could lead to a trade for Deandre Hopkins or someone of his ilk. Allen Robinson is available. Then look for something in the draft.
Running back: Provided Damien Harris leaves, I think you can bank on the Patriots adding a veteran running back. I see little chance of them rolling with Rhamondre Stevenson and two second-year RBs that haven't proven anything yet. Leonard Fournette would be on that list.
WANTS
Offensive tackle, linebacker: Sorry, the Patriots don't view these as needs. I think they would be happy adding one of each in the draft, but they'll keep an eye on the market to see if anything develops.
Everything will come via the draft unless it's a bargain.
Free safety: As we said previously, having Mills, Phillips, Bryant (RFA) and Bledsoe gives the team options. There are some intriguing safeties in the draft. Patriots could look for a veteran one-year stopgap if that presents itself in free agency, but I could see them opting for Harmon, a former captain.
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As of today, the Patriots are set to have about $30 million in cap space. At least $10 million will be earmarked for the season. They haven't redone any deals yet to create more space, which is simple and widely done but Belichick just seems to be against doing that. That's another piece of evidence that they aren't loading up for another 2021 run. But it should be pointed out that you can agree on a deal and then redo contracts, but the Patriots don't have a ton of good restructure candidates. Matthew Judon has been one the past couple of years.
So to start, that's about $20 million available to play with. Big deals — even trades for veterans like Hopkins and Ramsey — can be had for about $6 million each for the first season using simple cap tricks. That adds up to two big possible deals, and some tweaking.
But I do think the Patriots think they're in a good spot, but will be looking for some deals to improve the team.