Everything was about to be tied into a nice little bow. This game had everything for everyone, and with a pair of free throws and less than a second to go, all that was left to do was to give fans a win to cleanse their palates of the past weekend and go home.
… sigh
Grant Williams front-rimmed the first and slightly overcompensated on the second and STILL, Marcus Smart almost gave Boston an improbable ending with his late tip attempt.
So instead of giving the fans their reward, they were just taught another lesson. And there were plenty in this game.
The first, and the easiest to pick out for everyone, is the answer to Joe Mazzulla’s question “who are we when we’re at our best?” Cue up the video of Boston’s entire first quarter, put it on a loop, and hang a banner over it that says “this is us when we’re at our best.”
They shot 12-24 from the field overall, 6-8 from the restricted area. So a third of their attempts were at the front of the rim. Their six 3-pointers were all assisted, and eight of their 12 shots overall had helpers. They played at a pace of 114, which means over the course of 48 minutes, the Celtics would have gotten 114 possessions the way they were playing.
The Warriors currently lead the NBA, playing at a pace of 102.65
Mazzulla talks about 3-point rate being the most important stat in the NBA right now, but I think pace is Boston’s number one priority. The number one lesson the Celtics should take away from these last three losses is how their style of play changes so drastically as the game goes along.
Let’s go back to the Brooklyn game pace stats:
- First quarter: 100
- Second quarter: 118
- Third quarter: 100
- Fourth quarter: 96
New York pace stats:
- First quarter: 102
- Second quarter: 102
- Third quarter: 92
- Fourth quarter: 100
- OT 1: 76.8
- OT 2: 76.8
What happened in the Brooklyn game? They came out strong, had a huge second quarter to build a 28-point lead, things started to fall apart in the third, and they stagnated in the fourth as they went iso.
How about the Knicks game? They played well in the first half and they built up a lead in the third but suddenly stopped playing and devolved into iso ball. They frantically picked up the pace at the end to force the overtime, but both OTs were all about hero ball.
Against Cleveland, they went 114/98/88/90/96, giving up the fast early pace that got them out to their early lead.
Want to know who the Celtics are at their best and worst? This number might capture it as well as any number. We can see how it mirrors what we’ve seen. The number applies to the season, too.
- November: 100.1
- December: 101.28
- January: 98.51
- February: 97.29
- March: 97.16
The Celtics have been playing slower and slower all season long, which leads to this lesson applying to Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown … Tatum especially.
Tatum hasn’t played at pace higher than 100 since the 2019-20 season. He’s a slow-down player by nature, but he has to realize that playing fast is when he’s at his best as well.
Tatum and Brown are spending more and more time hunting mismatches on offense. They get the ball, survey the floor, pick out who they want setting the pick for them so they can get the switch, and then they try to do something in isolation. Maybe that ultimately involves passing the ball, but the process is slow, it lets the defense relax and communicate where the help will be, and it ultimately costs Boston possessions over the course of the game.
What they should be doing is moving faster and hunting defensive breakdowns. It’s a different mindset, but it’s a more effective one.
One of Bruce Lee’s signature philosophies was “Be Water,” which meant we should all be as flexible as water, which takes the shape of whichever vessel it is in. That's what Tatum and Brown should be, but they should also be water in a different way.
Water always finds cracks and slithers through them. Early against the Cavaliers, the Celtics were creating cracks in the defense, and the water that coursed through them was rotting the defense away. Instead of hunting mismatches, the Celtics created opportunities and exploited those.
Tatum and Brown need to change the way they think of how to attack, play with more pace, move the ball more, and ultimately understand that they will get the ball back with defenders out of position. Give me Tatum or Brown in that situation over them facing a weak defender with set help defense behind him every day of the week.
This flows into another lesson they should take from this Cavs game, which is about generating 3-pointers versus taking 3-pointers.
There’s a big difference between shooting a lot of 3s and generating a lot of 3s, and the Celtics are generating a lot of good ones this half.
— Tom Westerholm (@Tom_NBA) March 7, 2023
Generating 3-pointers comes from ball movement, stretching the defense, and creating open looks for teammates. Taking 3-pointers means coming down, making a pass or two and taking the first semi-open one that presents itself.
Generating 3s means making the defense work. Generating them means creating openings where there might not be one. The guys who don’t normally get minutes have to work harder for their 3-pointers than the guys with more talent, but yet they seem to generate some pretty good looks for themselves.
That's because work and effort can make up for a lack of talent. And if someone talented puts in that work and effort, then who knows how good things can get.
Actually, we do know how good things can get, because we saw it earlier this season. We saw this Boston team become one of NBA history’s greatest offenses with good pace and shot generation. We saw what this team could be at its best, and now we’re seeing what it is at its worst.
“We should be fighting to win. And that's, that's what it should be,” Jaylen Brown said after the game. “Whether you're in a rhythm or not in a rhythm, what matters is winning games. And at this point in the season, I think that we are fighting to get in our own rhythms a little bit too much, and that's from the top to the bottom. We should be fighting to win.
“We've had possessions that have been pivotal and we haven't executed; rebounds, loose balls, turnovers, free throws, all of that stuff. Me included. As we move forward, if we want to do what we want to do, this is the time where you improve is the time where you respond.”
The Celtics have said they want to get back to the Finals because they want to avoid the sting of that loss. I saw the looks on those guys’ faces in the immediate aftermath. I know how much that hurt them.
But the saying “time heals all wounds” is having a bit of a negative impact on the Celtics right now, because they seem to have forgotten why they lost to the Warriors in the first place. They seem to have forgotten why they went and got Malcolm Brogdon. They seem to forget why they gave up so much to bring in Derrick White.
It’s because the Celtics slowed things down too much against the Warriors, and Tatum and Brown got beaten to hell trying to carry so much of the burden.
But here we are again, and when push comes to shove, they're doing the same things. When it comes to crunch time, Mazzulla is taking the ball out of Smart’s hands, putting in Tatum and Brown’s, sitting the other ball-handlers, and now the results are repeating themselves.
The end of the Cavs game was a little different because of the absences, but the idea is the same because the Celtics still made a lot of the same mistakes. This one was more about fatigue than it was about everything I’m talking about here, but it doesn’t change the fact that the beginning of this game showed us the Celtics are capable of good execution no matter who is on the floor.
The Celtics know what they have to do to get this right, but they also have to want to do it. It’s as simple as that.
