The NBA has been a busy and interesting place over the last few days. Here’s a quick whirl around the association with some thoughts, some of which impact the Celtics.
- A new collective bargaining agreement is almost done
According to Shams Charania, we’re at the dotting i’s and crossing t’s stage, which means this thing is basically done.
Despite some wondering out loud to the contrary, there was never going to be a lockout or strike over this. There is way too much money being made and a lot more is coming in when a new TV deal kicks in for the 2025-26 season. And remember, Jayson Tatum can opt out of his deal and sign a new contract that begins that season, so prepare yourselves for Tatum setting a new record with his contract.
Of course, the new CBA can impact that deal. Cap smoothing, or phasing in the influx of new TV money over time, is on the table as of right now. Instead of a massive cap spike like the one that allowed Kevin Durant to go to the Golden State Warriors, they could decide to slowly introduce the money to the league.
The league wants to avoid another free-for-all where almost all teams suddenly have max cap space and the league’s superstars all conspire to reshape the landscape in particular cities. Giannis Antetokounmpo and Donovan Mitchell have the same out Tatum does. Imagine a scenario where every team in the league has the opportunity to sign one or two of them? The league doesn’t really want that dramatic shift.
Another one of the goals in this deal is to punish the big tax spenders more while making it less painful for some teams to dip their toes into the tax. This provision will come a bit too late for the Celtics, as they’ll be swimming in the deep end of the tax pool for a while, but how much it hurts Boston will still be interesting to see.
The Warriors and Clippers are the main targets here, with both teams’ monster tax bills potentially topping a combined $300 million. And while the non-tax teams are certainly enjoying the free cash from Joe Lacob and Steve Ballmer, the teams with a few more financial restrictions would like to see the playing field leveled a little more.
Obviously, every team is watching to see how this new deal shakes out. Boston’s front office is really good at finding the loopholes and ways to maneuver a CBA to their advantage, so I’m sure they’ll be exploring the studio space when it’s all done.
- Marc Lasry sells his stake in the Milwaukee Bucks at a $3.5 billion valuation.
Lasry owned about 25% of the Bucks, buying in with Wes Edens nine years ago for $550 million. So Lasry is cashing out for almost $900 million alone.
Whew.
The Suns were valued at $4 billion when Matt Ishba bought the team from Rob Sarver.
The current Celtics ownership group, headlined by Wyc Grousbeck and Steve Pagliuca but consisting of many investors, bought the team for $360 million in 2002.
Forbes has the Celtics valued at $4 billion, which would be a tidy profit for anyone who would like to sell and exit the partnership. It would also be a great time to carve out a chunk, say 25% of the team, and add $1 billion in cash to the mix. Everyone in the ownership group can get a taste of the action and still have plenty to pour into the team.
Personally, I want to see the team build its own stadium and turn itself into a Warriors-like cash cow, but they just extended their lease at the Garden through 2037 and I’m just not sure there's anywhere to put a new building now that makes sense.
Regardless, I think the money that's been thrown around the league right now has to be tempting for this ownership group. They don’t have to give up control of the team to get a huge cash infusion. All of this is just my speculation, but one thing I know about rich people is that when they see money being thrown around, they want in on it.
- Quin Snyder hired in Atlanta
It’s a five-year deal, which makes me wonder where he’s going to be coaching next in three years.
I'm only half-joking here because unless he figures out how to get along with Trae Young, he’ll be on the chopping block soon enough.
The five-year contract is a message to the team that Snyder is their guy, and it’s up to everyone involved to make it work. Young, especially, is going to have to come around. After butting heads with Lloyd Pierce, Young and the Hawks rallied behind Nate McMillan. It was such a successful pairing that they gave McMillan a four-year contract ahead of the 2021-22 season.
That's the season where Young expressed boredom with the regular season after a deep playoff run, and the Hawks slipped to a disappointing 43-39, ninth in the East and a quick first-round exit after finding their way out of the play-in tournament. They're 31-30 so far this season and back at the bottom of the playoff pack, seemingly destined for a similar fate.
This could be Boston’s first-round opponent this year. Will Snyder get them whipped into shape enough to climb out of eighth? Will they stay there and be a first-round nightmare for the Celtics? Or will they slip out of the playoffs with a whimper?
It might be too much to ask of Snyder to get the most of them now, but history tells us the Trae Young Hawks respond to coaching changes. Maybe they will here as well, but the bigger question is whether the Hawks will fashion themselves into an Eastern Conference power with Snyder at the helm and Young as their top option, or if they're destined to run in the hamster wheel of mediocrity, always feeling they're one move away from figuring it out.
- Damian Lillard drops 71
It’s our second 70-point game this season. Lillard now has scored 71, 60, and 50 points this season. No one has done that in the 3-point era.
The scoring has been incredible this season. We’re knee-deep in the NBA’s juiced-ball era. There have been 21 games so far this year where players scored at least 50 points. It happened 19 times last season, 14 the season before.
Ten years ago it happened three times.
There have been five games of 70 or more in the 3-point era, two of them have happened in the past two months. There have been 40 games of 60 or more in the 3-point era, 11 of them have come in the past four seasons. The first 11 took 10 seasons to accumulate.
Let’s fold in the Sacramento Kings beating the Clippers 176-175 in overtime on Friday, which was the second-highest-scoring game of all time. On that same night, we saw teams put up 121, 124, 128, 131, and 136. We just watched the Celtics beat Indiana 142-138.
On one hand, it’s fun to watch guys make buckets. The skill level is out of this world right now. Lillard went 13-22 on 3-pointers in his 71-point game. That's beyond outrageous. It’s the 26th time anyone has taken 20 or more 3-pointers in a game, and even that has happened twice this season (I love that one of those guys is Marcus Smart. He hit 11 of them to set the team record).
On the other, I’d like to see a little bit of defense here and there. The Bucks lead the NBA with a 109.3 defensive rating and Boston is fourth at 111.0. Ten years ago, in the 2012-13 seasons, 109.3 would have been 27th, and Boston would be dead last.
In that season, Miami’s offense was number one at 111.4. This year, that would be 25th.
The league has changed drastically over 10 seasons. I’m curious to see if the league is okay with the product, or if they’ll try to find a way to balance things out. It’s fun to watch these outlier games like Lillard’s, but is the process of turning games into glorified 3-point contests really where the league wants things to go?
And don’t get me wrong, I get why the 3-pointers are a priority. This is absolutely the right strategy in this environment, but the question is whether this is the environment the NBA really wants long-term. Do the rules need to be adjusted to account for the incredible skill these players are showing?
The 3-pointer is like the home run in baseball, a particular skill that should be reserved for particular players with unique abilities. If everyone in the lineup is giving you at least 25 dingers a season, then everyone is just going to swing for the fences. If everyone on an NBA team is a threat from 3, then the nuance of cutting and scoring at the rim dwindles a little more.
The Celtics love early offense 3-pointers, which can be maddening as a fan. When guys catch the ball with :20 on the shot clock and fire, we feel robbed of a possession because those shots will fail six times out of 10. The math is good on that shot, but the aesthetics are not.
It’s a delicate balance because we have no choice but to watch how the sausage gets made. I don’t blame the players for taking the shots or the coaches for encouraging them because this is how points are scored, games are won, and contracts are earned today. The question is whether the league sees this as good or bad. I guess we’ll get a sense of that when the rules committee gathers at the end of the season.
