FORT MYERS, FL. -- From the time that he was hired as the Red Sox' chief baseball officer after the 2019 season, Chaim Bloom has made it clear that building up the team's player development system was a big focus.
In Bloom's eyes, a fertile farm system that produces a player or two a year for the major league club is essential to achieve his goal of sustainability. And on Bloom's watch, the system has indeed been upgraded, with a handful of top prospects added either through the draft or the international free agent portal.
Evaluators differ on just how much improvement has been made, however. Several publications rated the Sox in the lower half of the 30 systems this year, with one citing the absence of high-end starting pitching as a particular failing of the organization.
Still, there's reason for optimism, considering the presence of high-ceiling prospects like Marcelo Mayer, Miguel Bleis and Mikey Romero.
But one walk through the Red Sox clubhouse at Fenway South this spring can be illustrative about the pitfalls of expecting major league stardom -- or even a spot on a major league roster -- from highly rated prospects.
On Friday, when the Red Sox kick off their exhibition season against Northeastern University, Jarren Duran will be in center field and hitting leadoff. And sometime in the next day or two, Bobby Dalbec will be in the lineup, likely at third base. Not long ago, both were among the most highly-touted prospects the Red Sox have had in the upper reaches of their system in some time.
Duran boasted incredible speed and, after some adjustments with his stance, emerging pop. To some, he was a more muscular version of Jacoby Ellsbury, who, when healthy, offered the Sox a blend of speed and power. For his part, Dalbec appeared poised to be the team's first baseman for a long time, with a natural power stroke capable of often denting -- or clearing -- The Wall at Fenway.
Or so it seemed.
Now, with the start of the 2023 season just over a month away, the two already seem like their time has come and gone.
Duran's chance to establish himself came last year when he got into 58 games as injuries struck the Red Sox outfield. But Duran never could get going and slashed .221/.283/.363. Worse, he seemed lost at times in center, unable to put his speed to use to track fly balls and frequently taking wrong routes. Duran was easily the fastest player in the upper reaches of the organization, but the combination of his poor on-base percentage and some tentativeness limited his ability to put that speed to good use. In parts of two seasons, he amassed just nine stolen bases.
Offensively, his strikeout rate (28.3 percent) was down some from the year before (35.7 percent), but still, far too high, especially for someone with aspirations for the top of the lineup. Alex Cora has said that Duran's jumps improved late last season, and publicly, the Red Sox like to point out that he's still learning the nuances of outfield play after being drafted as a second baseman.
But that ignores the fact that Duran made the transition to the outfield some four years ago, and that Duran will turn 27 in September.
At times last year, Duran suffered a crisis of confidence and expressed fears to some teammates that he was going to be remembered as little more than a bust.
Had the Red Sox had more faith in his abilities or his chances to make a significant contribution to the 2023 team, they wouldn't have signed Adam Duvall to handle center field. And as it stands, Rob Refsnyder looks like the likely fourth outfielder and primary depth option in center.
Before long, it's possible that Cedanne Rafaela will leapfrog Duran in the organization's depth chart and be viewed as the center fielder in waiting. Rafaela, too, has flaws to his game. He currently expands the strike zone too frequently, leading to weak contact, but the Sox are hopeful that he can overcome that and gain better knowledge of the zone. Already, the organization is thrilled with his athleticism and the potential to be a plus-plus defender in either center or at shortstop.
Dalbec, meanwhile, has enjoyed a measure of success in the big leagues, but his lack of offensive consistency is impossible to overlook.
In the second half of 2021, Dalbec posted a .955 OPS with 15 homers in 48 games. But last season, he failed to follow that up. Dalbec would frequently fall behind in the count, then passively take a called strike three. And more times than not, his struggles at the plate carried over to the field. After the All-Star break, the Red Sox were so desperate to find a league-average first baseman who could make the routine plays at the position that they dealt for Eric Hosmer.
Then, in the final month, the Sox promoted Triston Casas, who arrived with a more measured approach at the plate (.358 OBP) and the ability to use the whole field while promising plus power. The Sox were also committed enough to Casas that they designated Hosmer for assignment over the winter. And with the team's foundational piece, Rafael Devers, now signed for the next dozen years at third, Dalbec finds himself blocked at two different infield spots.
With Adalberto Mondesi unlikely to be 100 percent recovered from knee surgery for Opening Day, Dalbec stands a chance to make the team this spring. He could theoretically contribute at all four infield spots early in the season and the threat of bringing his power off the bench in the late innings still holds some value.
But long-term, it's hard to see him fitting into the Red Sox plans. The Red Sox unsuccessfully shopped him around over the winter, but what little interest they received wasn't enough in return to make a deal. A trade in spring training cannot be ruled out, especially if some teams are hit by injuries.
"I think they both could use a fresh start elsewhere,'' noted one evaluator recently. "They're both 'change of scenery' candidates.''
For now, however, they're a reminder that not all player development is linear and that prospect status and rankings don't mean much when it comes to enjoying sustained success at the big league level.
