After being the league’s best offense for the first quarter of the season, the Celtics have dipped to fourth in offensive rating. After 26 games, the Celtics offensive rating was 119.9, best in the league by nearly eight full points. But over the last 25, they’ve dropped to 113.1, sixth in the league.
“Less threes,” Joe Mazzulla said when asked about the offensive issues. “We're shooting less threes.”
That's not exactly true. They're shooting plenty of them. What they're doing is not making as many. Teams are known to use their own statistics, and what Mazzulla might be talking about is quality of 3-pointers Boston is getting, not the total volume.
Over the first 26 games, when Boston was 21-5, they were taking 41.5 per game and hitting 40% of those shots. They scored 1,296 points off 3-pointers, 49.85 per game. In the 25 games since then, the Celtics are taking 41.9 per game, but hitting just 33.8%. They’ve scored 1062 points off 3-pointers, 42.48 points per game. That's essentially a seven-and-a-half point drop.
They went from averaging 120.8 points per game to 114.6 over their last 2, essentially a six point drop.
“It starts with our spacing, and so we can't get the threes that we want because we're not fighting for our spacing,” he said “When we do get to our spacing early in the shot clock and the first action doesn't work, we don't fight for our spacing in the last 12 seconds of the shot clock. And then so when you're not spaced in the last 12 seconds, defenses are naturally better and it’s less likely to find the two-on-one and you don't get the shot that you want.”
That has been especially true lately. Boston’s late-clock offense has cratered into abysmal.
In their first 26 games, the Celtics shot 51.9% on late shot clock shots (between :04 and :07 on the shot clock). They were 59.2% from 2, and 45% from 3. In very late clock situations (less than :04) they shot 40.1% overall, 53.2% from 2, and 23.3% from 3.
In their last 25, Boston’s late-clock percentage has dropped to 42.4%, 53.4% from, and 29.5% from 3. Their very late clock numbers dropped to 32.6% overall, 41.5% from 2, and 23.3% from 3.
“And then we're turning the ball over which is allowing teams to get out and transition,” Mazzulla said. “So it's a combination of spacing, early offense, late offense, and then it's a combination and making sure we make the right read when we have the ball.”
So what’s the difference? Part of it could simply be that the split between the first 26 and the second 25 coincided with that long west coast road trip. That was always going to naturally cause a dip in some of their offense. Part of it could be a natural regression from an insanely hot start which was just unsustainable. And part of it coincided with a string of injuries.
"I think it shouldn't be happening regardless but I understand people in and out of our lineups and different lineups and different personnel that confusion is going to happen, especially against crossmatches and stuff like that,” Mazzulla said. “But at the same time, spacing is the one detail, it's the one constant that you can control regardless of the circumstances. We just have to do a great job of not taking something as small as spacing for granted throughout the entire year."
The spacing is also different now. Instead of a five-out scheme, it’s four-out with Robert Williams in the dunker spot or setting screens to run pick-and-roll. The dip over the last 25 games coincides with 17 games of Robert Williams back in the lineup. That takes some getting used to.
"I think we've had some stuff where Rob and Al (Horford) are both spaced. It all depends on who your matchup is, who's guarding you,” Mazzulla said. “In the Laker game, at the end of the game, Davis was on Al and we did a great job spacing him in the strong-side corner and above the break so that he wasn't the rim protector. It's not a matter of if you can shoot it or not, it's a matter of who's guarding you and really we want him so that we can generate a trigger for our offense and a trigger for our 2-on-1."
It’s important to keep the proper perspective here. Boston’s offense has dipped, for sure, but they are the only team in the NBA with offensive and defensive ratings in the top five (they’re fourth in both). Historically, teams with both ratings in the top five are championship-caliber teams, so even though they’ve slipped a little, they are still really good.
But it’s clear that they're not doing the same things they used to do, and that's something that needs to be corrected. It seems the full effort of finishing off plays has waned a bit, and if they can get that back, their offense can stabilize a bit.
MARCUS SMART INJURY UPDATE
One thing that has become pretty clear is that the Celtics miss Smart running their offense. According to CleaningTheGlass.com, the Celtics offense is nearly two points better per 100 possessions with him on the floor and Boston’s effective field goal percentage (which is weighted to account for 3-pointers) is 3.2% better. The Celtics shoot 8.5% better at the rim and 3.1% better on corner 3-pointers with Smart on the floor, which is what you want from a point guard who can penetrate and run pick-and-roll.
“As a competitor, you always think and feel you can help when things are going kind of south or not as planned,” Smart said at the team’s practice facility Tuesday afternoon. “But I believe in these guys. Even though I’m out, I still believe that things can fix themselves right now. Yeah, we’re struggling, but it happens, and I have so much faith in these guys. I’m not even worried about it. So it sucks that I’m not out there to help those guys, but we’ll figure it out.”
Smart is taking his time coming back from a right ankle sprain and bone bruise. He injured the same ankle during the playoffs last year, and he says he’d probably try to play if this was the playoffs instead of the middle of the regular season. Considering how close we are to the All-Star break, Smart says he’s still not sure if he’ll return before or after.
“We haven’t made any decisions like that yet,” he said. “Right now, we’re just taking it one day at a time. It’s one of those things if I’m feeling good enough to get out there, then I’ll be out there. If it’s not, then there’s no need to try to get out for a game or two and we got All-Star coming up. I’ll probably know here in the next couple games whether or not that’s the case.”
There was not much of an update on Robert Wiliams.
“Rob’s just continuing to work on his ankle. We’ll see how he goes,” Mazzulla said. When asked if there was a chance he’d play tomorrow, he added, “there’s always a chance.”
SAM HAUSER’S FUNK
In a bit of a chicken and egg scenario, Sam Hauser has struggled a lot over the past 25 games. Since December 10, he’s only shooting 29.2% on 3-pointers. He’s made 21 over that span, which is rough because it only took him 11 games to get past 21 to start the season. He shot 45.5% over the first 26 games, so the question is whether the offense is struggling in part because players like Hauser have cooled off … or has Hauser cooled off because the offense is struggling?
“I think our early offense creativity, our early offense unpredictability allowed for more of that, especially early in the shot clock,” Mazzulla said of Hauser’s shot attempts. “So we’ve gotta do a better job of recognizing the cross matchup, getting into a quick trigger in the first six to eight seconds which will allow that unpredictability and open shots, which is something that really helped him.”
Hauser is very dependent on his teammates to be successful. Every one of his 72 made 3-pointers this season has been assisted. Of the eight unassisted baskets he’s made, five of them are tip-ins or putbacks. He has created only two made field goals this year, unassisted, off the dribble.
So if there's any symptom that the offense needs to revive itself, it’s Hauser’s shooting numbers. The Celtics need him coming off the bench and drilling triples to build leads and maybe reduce some minutes (more on that later). What the Celtics need from him in the meantime as they figure that out is to do the other little things that can keep him on the floor.
“I think a huge area of growth in his last couple outings is (missing shots) wasn’t affecting him,” Mazzulla said. “I think he’s done a good job of understanding, especially young players in general, their value doesn’t come from their shot making. It comes from their effort, it comes from their individual defense and their team defense. And I think the shot making is kind of what separates you after that.”
MAZZULLA NAMED ALL-STAR COACH
The Philadelphia 76ers seven-game winning streak ended last night when they lost to the Orlando Magic. But they didn’t just lose a game, they lost Doc Rivers an opportunity to coach Team Giannis in the All-Star game. Instead, that honor will go to Mazzulla, making him only the third first-year coach in the last 24 seasons to guide an All-Star team. Naturally, the first question to Mazzulla at practice was what this meant to him.
“Nothing,” he deadpanned.
“Bullshit,” Smart retorted later when told of Mazzulla’s stance. “It’s just the humble mentality that we have. We got a lot of great guys, from coaches and players, that could sit here and boast about themselves about everything they’ve accomplished and things like that, but that’s not us. We love each other, and we let all the outside noise do the talking for us. But it definitely means something to Joe, and it means a lot to us for him to do it. Joe’s been through a lot. He stepped into a situation that wasn’t ideal for anybody, and he strived and exceeded I’m sure a lot of expectations, so we’re happy for him.
“He’s definitely pumped about it. I mean, first time being a head coach and you go to coach the All-Star Game, I don’t see how you’d not be excited. But that’s just Joe. He does a good job of hiding his enthusiasm for certain things and other times, he lets you know. But like I said, we’re just extremely proud of Joe and everything and how him and the rest of this team and coaching staff has responded to everything we’ve been through this season.”
To be fair, Mazzulla did disperse a lot of the credit in the midst of declaring multiple times how little he cared about anything All-Star.
“Really happy for our staff. I think it'd be a great experience for our family,” he said. “It's really cool that since this all started that our staff has really been able to come together and work hard together, and just kind of figure it out. So really happy for them, and it just says a lot about our team being able to sustain a level of play for a long period of time and we just have to continue that. So, blessed and happy for our families to be able to have that opportunity.”
The All-Star game will be played Sunday, February 19 in Salt Lake City.
NOT MUCH OF A BREAK FOR JAYSON TATUM
While we wait for official word of Jaylen Brown’s inclusion in the All-Star game, we do know that Tatum will be a starter. The teams will be picked on that Sunday, so we don’t know which team he’s actually on or who his teammates will be.
It’s not exactly heavy lifting, but it will actually mean more basketball for Tatum, who has been carrying a heavy workload this season, especially lately.
He’s second in the league in minutes per game at 37.5, just behind Pascal Siakam. But over the last 10 games, Tatum has played 40.8 per game, and it’s 41.9 over the last five.
When asked about limiting Tatum’s minutes, Mazzulla said “don’t play overtime games,” which certainly is something the Celtics would love. They’ve played two straight OT games and three in their last six games. He’s played 48, 43, and 47 minutes in those three games.
“I'm tired. I am exhausted,” he said after the Lakers game. “Obviously, some big-time players made plays on both sides. Obviously the history between both sides. But 47 minutes tonight, I'm ready to go to sleep."
The Celtics came into this season with a stated purpose of not wearing Tatum and Brown out before the playoffs. It’s widely accepted that part of why Tatum struggled in the Finals was because he had nothing left in the tank.
“Maybe when you go through something and then you learn how to navigate that, you’re better at it when you come back,” Mazzulla said.
There's something to that. We all focus on the minutes as the be-all and end-all of the discussion because they're the most taxing part of the job and the only part of the job, generally, that anyone sees. But there is more to it than that.
“One way is to adjust by limiting minutes within games and/or the occasional game where somebody doesn’t play, which doesn’t happen very often with our guys,” Brad Stevens said in a recent radio appearance. “And the other way is really managing how you navigate your off days. And I think that's another way to do it. Nobody ever talks about it. Everybody looks at ‘okay, you averaged 37 minutes versus 35.’ Well, if you play two more minutes in a game but your off days are managed appropriately with treatment, less time on your feet. It’s really not that big of a deal.”
It seems that for now, the Celtics are relying on that off-day plan to get Tatum through this part of the schedule.
“I trust how he takes care of his body, I trust the people around him and I trust everything that he does,” Mazzulla said. “Will there be moments when we have to cut his minutes down? Yes, absolutely. I’m not here in favor of playing guys until they can’t play anymore. At the same time I trust his work ethic and I trust the people around him to think that he took what he learned from the finals and was able to apply that in his summer workouts, in his preseason workouts and in his daily approach to how he takes care of himself.”
PATRICK BEVERLEY’S THEATRICS
Color Smart amused by Beverley pulling out a camera to show referee Eric Lewis that LeBron James was fouled on Saturday night.
“The Pat Bev thing is hilarious,” he said. “I’ve never seen that. But that’s the beauty about this league—we’re entertainers. We’ve got some guys in here that give the fans their money's worth.”
