We’ll do deep position breakdowns leading up to the draft again but before we get there let’s start at a high level. At this point, apart from the College Football Playoff, the bowl games are mostly for ratings and boredom. The draft season really starts next week with the All-Star games, which is essentially a job interview with all 32 teams. It provides scouts and coaching staffs the opportunity to interview these guys in person and see them against other top-tier talent without protection of a scheme advantage. It’s good on good and the Patriots love it.
Have doubts? 80% of their picks last year were selected for these two games. Three went to the Shrine Bowl (Tyquan Thornton, Pierre Strong, and Jack Jones) and five went to the Senior Bowl (Cole Strange, Bailey Zappe, Chasen Hines, Andrew Stueber, and Marcus Jones was a scratch with an injury).
The Senior Bowl remains the top game because of the depth of talent. Most of the players will be drafted and last year there were 6 first-round picks (including surprise selection, Cole Strange). This year is a bit unique; the Patriots have direct involvement in both games.
For the Shrine Bowl, which is now played in Las Vegas, the Patriots will be coaching the “West” team starting Saturday. Bill Belichick, Jerod Mayo, and Bill O’Brien will be in supervisory roles. Troy Brown (WR Coach) will serve as the Head Coach, Ross Douglas (assistant WR Coach) will serve as the OC, Mike Pellegrino (Cornerbacks Coach) will serve as the Co-DC along with Brian Belichick (Safeties Coach).
For the Senior Bowl, current defensive line coach DeMarcus Covington will be the Defensive Coordinator for the “American” team. Belichick rained praise on Covington earlier this year, “DeMarcus does a really good job. He's coached linebackers, coached defensive line, really understands the entire defense. I'm sure he could coach a lot of positions on defense. Young guy that's really smart, works hard. Has worked with, again, a lot of different types of players, even on our defensive line. That difference between our interior guys and our outside guys is quite distinct. Pass rush, pass coverage, interior run play, so forth.... It's a lot of different techniques to coach. He's very well versed in the fundamentals and schemes. He does a good job. Really glad we have him."
Both teams that coached the Senior Bowl last year, the Jets and the Lions, had strong rookie classes that produced well on the field this year. Let’s hope the Patriots realize the same benefit.
Here’s a quick summary of each position with a Patriots perspective leading into this week (listed by need).
OT: The top priority on the offense is finding some tackles to protect the QB and support the running game. The Patriots have traditionally invested in this position a year early (Light, Solder, Vollmer, Wynn) since it can take some time to develop and get comfortable with the speed and strength at the NFL level. I was surprised they didn’t take one last year (the 7th rounder Andrew Stueber was never active and could end up at guard) but it’s likely that they didn’t like how the board fell to them. They’ll take a tackle in the first few rounds and hopefully one later. There is not an elite prospect at the top of class but some good depth through the first two rounds.
WR: The position is sort of a mixed bag. With the evolution of the college and pro game, it’s getting easier for these players to make an impact early. I would assume 10 prospects go in the first 2 rounds of the draft but there is no top 5 pick. I would compare this class to 2019, which is the last time the Patriots went with a WR early, and once again they need WR help. I don’t normally subscribe to drafting a WR in the top 15 (too much depth) but they will definitely draft this position in April. Especially with Meyers & Agholor as free agents. There’s a chance they go early here, and I only see one WR worth drafting at pick 14.
CB: This is another top need for the Patriots. They were not good against top WRs this year. Jonathan Jones is getting older and is a free agent. This class doesn't have an elite corner (last year there were 2, year before there were 2). But there is some depth here. They could get good potential in Round 1.
Edge: One of the deeper positions at the draft, although teams evaluate this position differently depending on scheme requirements. While this isn’t a top need for the Patriots, it should never not be a priority for a team. There is value to be had in this position and it’s always good to have depth.
TE: One of the best positions in the draft. With a solid Round 1 target, depth on Day 2, and value on Day 3. I do see this as a need area for the Patriots. They need both depth and a long-term answer. When their offense has been effective they have TEs and slots that open up their offense. That’s incredibly important for a rhythm QB, which Mac most certainly is (thank god Billy O’Brien will be here to help him get into said rhythm).
S - Also a position of need for the Patriots since they will need a long-term replacement for Devin McCourty. I expect a Day 2 or Day 3 target.
LB: I strongly believe the Patriots need an athletic playmaker in the middle of their defense. But this draft class is weak at the top (I don’t see a Devin Lloyd or Quay Walker in Round 1) and I think they should focus elsewhere early. I do expect them to draft and develop at linebacker. There are lots of prospects that are smaller but faster.
DL: Better class than last year, especially for nose tackles or strong DE types. Just like the offensive line and CB, it’s a position that needs consistent investment. The Patriots could select someone for depth.
RB: The position has been devalued but this is a really solid class. There will be Day 3 starters. I normally don’t subscribe to drafting a RB in Round 1 unless he’s a true difference-maker. Texas’ Bijan Robinson is that player. For the Patriots, not an area of need unless they see a player they really like.
C: Weak draft class and not a top need for the Patriots. David Andrews was solid this year and should be a pivotal part of next season. While he’s getting older, I think a realistic succession plan could involve moving Strange inside.
G: Average class and not a priority for the Patriots given their current depth chart.
QB: Much better than last year but it’s the eye of the beholder in the first round and then it’s a crapshoot thereafter. I expect the Patriots will either sign a veteran (in the Hoyer role) or draft/sign a developing player. It would be smart for them to bring on a more athletic QB who could develop but more importantly bring value to the scout team in preparation for similar style QBs that they Patriots face.
Top 10 Prospects on West Team the Patriots Are Coaching This Week at the Shrine Bowl
WR Zay Flowers (BC): Here’s a top-50 pick with a chance to break into the first round. He’s explosive with the ball in his hands and he’ll interview well for teams.
DE Habakkuk Baldonado (Pitt): Smart kid that is still developing. Great size (6-5, 260) with a frame to put on more weight. Needs more anchor, polish but he has good instincts and I love the upside.
TE Luke Schoonmaker (Michigan): The CT native is one of the more balanced TE’s coming out this year. He’s a top 100 player that could be a Patriots target late Day 2 or early Day 3.
DL Devonnsha Maxwell (UT-Chattanooga): Same school as Cole Strange. Set the school and conference record for sacks (37.5). Consistent producer each year and played well against top talent this year.
RT Dalton Wagner (Arkansas): Smart player started 39 games for the Razorbacks. He’s mostly a RT and teams will dive deep on his medicals at the combine. He had a strong senior season and he's a late Day 3 pick.
LB Isaiah Moore (NCST): 3x captain for the Wolfpack is athletic and attacks the line of scrimmage well. He’s going to be a late pick because of his injury history.
S Trey Dean III (Florida): 3-year starter that was originally a safety. He can be scheme diverse. Enough speed to run deep, enough size to come to support the run. He’s a Round 6 or Round 7 player.
WR Jake Bobo (UCLA): The North Andover native transferred from Duke to UCLA this year and was the top receiver for the Bruins. We covered him a number of times, he’s a tough kid that is a solid possession receiver. He’ll be a late pick or a PFA.
WR Bryce Ford-Wheaton (West Virginia): Big (6-3, 224), athletic talent that could be the eventual replacement to DeVante Parker. He’s potentially a 4th or 5th rounder.
K Jake Moody (Michigan): I won’t claim to know the intricacies of the kicking game but Moody was one of the best in college.
Five Players On East Roster I Like Best
OT Warren Carter (Pitt): Coming off an injury and tons of playing experience. Strong in the pass game. Round 4-6.
DL Dante Stills (West Virginia): I really like him as a potential strongside end. Intriguing frame and versatility but he needs more consistency. Good overall production and I think he’s Round 4 to 5.
NT Keondre Coburn (Texas): I think he’s Day 2 or early Round 3 player. Power and quickness to play the NT role in the NFL.
LB Orji Anfernee (Vanderbilt): The former safety racks up tackles, plays with good explosion and he’s a smart player. Coverage ability will help draft grade.
WR Jalen Moreno-Cropper (Fresno St): He’s a slot at the next level because of his change of direction ability. Day 3 prospect.
Top 5 Potential Patriots
WR Zay Flowers
TE Luke Schoonmaker
DL Dante Stills
NT Keondre Coburn
DE Habakkuk Baldonado