NFL Notebook: Patriots are being more public, but will anything really change?

There's no question that the press release sent out by the Patriots on Thursday night was fall-out-of-your-chair stunning. It was a complete 180 for an organization that allowed its football coach to conduct their operations like they were the gridiron CIA. 

It was a signal that Bill Belichick, after two losing season in the past three years and a 25-26 record since pushing Tom Brady out the door, was no longer going to go unchecked.

Belichick had his chance to set things right, and he blew it with his decision to put Matt Patricia and Joe Judge in charge of an offense that had a good, solid first year with a rookie quarterback and four new receiving targets. As we all know, instead of taking another step forward as a group, they took three steps back as the team was the team lost two more games and slipped back to third place in the AFC East.

Remember what Robert Kraft said at the league meetings about Belichick's setup for 2022?

"I think Bill has a unique way of doing things. It's worked out pretty well up to now so ... I know what I don't know. And I try to stay out of the way of things I don't know," he said. "... It doesn't sometimes look straight line to our fans, or to myself, but I'm results-oriented."

The results spoke, and they said that Belichick no longer gets to do business as he long did.

But that's just the superficial, public relations side of this. At the end of the day, and after this search for an offensive coordinator, is anything going to fundamentally change at One Patriot Place?

That's the key question people are asking around the team.

It's great that they have stepped up and retained Jerod Mayo to the point that he even removed his name from a head coaching interview with the Panthers. But it's similar to what they did with Josh McDaniels in 2018 — just on an accelerated timeline, in part due to the lessons learned from that episode, but also the fact that the Patriots weren't on a Super Bowl run like they were in 2017. If the Patriots made the postseason this season, Mayo would have likely been in the same boat as McDaniels and taken a plethora of interviews, coordinator and head coach, and who knows what would have happened since Belichick does not discuss anything beyond the next game until there are no more games.

And when it comes to choosing the next offensive coordinator of the Patriots, is anything really going to be different outside of the Patriots being more public about it? That's the essential question. More than a few saw this announcement and I'm sure they had visions dancing in their head of some innovative mind coming to Foxborough and drastically changing how they do things on offense.

But is that reality? With a 71-year-old head coach (in April) who is accustomed to doing things his way for 23 years in New England, most doubt it.

When it comes to choosing his next offensive coordinator, Belichick is going to have to answer a few key questions, and that will lead him on his path — and he's probably already done that.

1. Does he want to drastically change things ... again?

For 20-plus years, the Patriots ran their offense — which Belichick had a hand in building — with great success. The only time they changed anything drastically, this year, it was a disaster that sunk them to the bottom of the league in virtually every offensive category. Why did he do that? Belichick knew he didn't have anyone in the building that was ready to run that system, so they tried to bridge the gap by simplifying some of the complex parts — like route concepts, and changing blocking assignments (they took a lot of that out) — because the coaches couldn't coach it anywhere near to the level of Josh McDaniels.

Is Belichick, at 71 and with a few years left, really going to feel comfortable turning to a whole new system, which would be the third in three seasons for many of them — which would also mean Belichick would have to learn it and put his twist on things? Or is he more likely to go back to what worked, and get that going again?

2. Is Belichick going to welcome an insider into the sanctum?

For most of his career, Belichick always had either coaches that came from his/Bill Parcells tree, or young neophytes that he trained. Belichick has only become more insular in recent years. RBs coach Vinnie Sunseri came from Alabama and Nick Saban. Offensive assistant Tyler Hughes was a high school head coach and DII head coach before landing in Foxborough. DeMarcus Covington has been here six years after coaching in college. CBs coach Mike Pellegrino has been here eight years and was in lacrosse before that. Cam Achord came from Southwest Mississippi Community College. Before his eight years with the Patriots, all on offense, Nick Caley was a defensive coach in college for 10 years.

The last position coaches to have worked for other NFL teams — DL Brendan Daly (4 years), OL Dave DeGuglielmo (2 years) — did not last long. Daly left for a lateral move with Kansas City.

Belichick has never hired a coordinator on either side of the ball that previously worked for another NFL team. Even Dean Pees came straight from being the head coach at Kent State.

So now, at 71 and with a few years left, Belichick is suddenly going to hire an outsider for a vital role? To Belichick, that's risky on a number of levels, including opening up his fiefdom to someone who may blab all over the league about the inner workings, especially if it goes poorly. Belichick has increasingly operated at his comfort level being a focal point — coaches and players he's comfortable with — and now he's going to introduce a huge x-factor? We'll believe it when we see it.

There's also the very real possibility that if Belichick hired a coach from outside the system, and that coach had a major impact in the first season, that the coordinator would be heavily sought-after and a one-and-done candidate without establishing the system. Can you imagine how much owners would be tripping over someone who had been touched by both Sean McVay and Belichick?

3. Is he going to fit the system to the QB, or the QB to the system?

The Patriots drafted Mac Jones because it was easy to project him into this system and that he could, in time, run it at a high level. It took about one practice to see that was going to be the case, and his rookie season proved that. It was a nice baseline. 

In Year 2, the scheme decisions basically neutralized Jones' great assets. So, provided Jones is at least given a third season in New England to prove his worth as a franchise quarterback, are they going to continue down this path, or will Belichick be more inclined to correct his mistake and get back to letting Jones operate in the system he thrived in at Alabama (to some extent) and New England?

If the Patriots believe in Jones, and the feeling around the team is they do for at least another season, wouldn't the paramount factor for the next system/scheme be taking advantage of Jones' best asset, his mind? Jones is never going to blow anyone away physically, but if you combine his skills with a quick and strong mind ... that makes him a potential Top 10 QB. That would also favor a strong foundation in the old Patriots offense.

It's also vital that, by the end of this, Belichick gets someone who can really coach the quarterback. Ideally it's the coordinator, but they need a QB specialist.

RANKING THE CANDIDATES

Given all that, this is my ranking of real candidates that Belichick/Patriots would prefer:

1. Bill O'Brien, Alabama OC: He checks all the boxes — knows the system, can coach the QB, has a relationship with Jones, is not an outsider — and has probably learned a few new-age tricks in the college game. Last I heard, and this can change as quickly as the Patriots' policy on commenting on contracts, he was not gung-ho about this gig due to the lack in clarity about the setup. If Belichick told O'Brien he had autonomy, including over assistants, that might make it more attractive.

2. Chad O'Sh ea, Browns WRs/pass game coordinator: Former Patriots assistant checks a lot of boxes, and has the added benefit of having been in the Shanahan/Kubiak system the Patriots fell on their face installing. But he hasn't coached QBs. Would need to bring someone to do that.

3. Nick Caley, Patriots TEs: He's already been strongly mentioned with the Jets' OC spot, which would be the kind of embarrassment that led them to extend Mayo. If Caley's that thought of, and I don't know anything on that front, he would make a lot of sense. But I have a hard time seeing Belichick go there because it would make this past season even worse. If Caley was that good to be hired in 2023, why did anyone have to go through the disaster of 2022?

4. Bo Hardegree, Raiders QBs: He coached Jones with the Patriots, has two years of experience working under McDaniels, and has more Patriots ties back to his days with the Dolphins under Brian Flores. McDaniels and Belichick working out a Hardegree-for-Caley swap would save Belichick a lot of embarrassment. You have to question, however, why he hasn't risen anywhere for very long. How do you go from being Dolphins QBs coach 2016-2018, to being an offensive assistant with the Jets and Patriots the next three years? Could have been circumstances, but worth checking out.

5. Jerry Schuplinski, Raiders senior offensive assistant: Similar to Hardegree but has even deeper Patriots ties, and was Joe Judge's QBs coach with the Giants. Same question, however: why hasn't he risen further?

6. Marc Trestman, free agent: The former Bears head coach (and three-time Grey Cup champion with the Alouettes & Argos) has extensive QB and coordinator experience at five different NFL stops, last with the Ravens from 2015-16. He's a frequent visitor to Gillette and is viewed as a friend of Belichick.

TOP MINORITY CANDIDATES (teams must interview at least one)

Brian Johnson, Eagles QBs: Has done great work with Jalen Hurts and has studied under Nick Sirianni after being a coordinator/QBs coach for three major colleges (Utah, Houston, Utah). This would be a big scheme departure to the Frank Reich tree.

Marcus Brady, Eagles offensive consultant: The former CFL QB steadily rose in CFL coaching ranks to OC with the Argos, and in the NFL to OC under Reich with Colts from 2021-2022.

Charles London, Falcons QBs: Has been in that spot for two seasons but previously was mostly a RBs coach for the Texans (under O'Brien) and Bears.

NICKEL PACKAGE

1. For those of you dreaming of Kliff Kingsbury, it appears he's doing the walkabout thing ...

2. Not sure I understand how anyone with the Rams — assistant coaches and players — can have confidence in Sean McVay, even with him returning in 2023. He's clearly thinking about his exit ... like players, once you start thinking about leaving the game, you're gone.

3. Congrats to Marcus Jones for making first-team All-Pro as a punt returner. Even though that part of the game is diminishing (Gunner Olszewski got the same honor a few years ago), it's still a great honor, especially for a rookie. He has no idea how good he can be. Other Patriots in the voting:

- Onwenu 3rd at RG
- Judon 6th at edge
- Dugger t-12th at safety
- McCourty received a vote
- Slater 5th for STs
- Schooler received a vote

I have no complaints about the results. No one got robbed — especially after Judon finished just behind Maxx Crosby, who did get robbed. Crosby was slightly better all season.

4. Who I like this weekend:

• 49ers (-9) beat the Seahawks but don't cover due to the wind and rain in California;
• Jaguars (+2) to beat the Chargers. Brandon Staley should be fired for getting Mike Williams hurt. Completely changes their offense.
• Bills (-13.5) to win and cover. Dolphins have a chance if they stick to the ground game, but the defense won't hold up.
• Vikings (-3) to win and cover. They've had a rabbit's foot all season and it won't end this week.
• Bengals (-8.5) to win and cover. Ravens are good on defense, but the Bengals are better in every way without Lamar Jackson out there.
• Bucs (+2.5) to beat the Cowboys. Nobody fails in the postseason like Dallas. Brady will do his thing.

5. Going forward...

Divisional weekend

Chiefs over Jaguars
Bengals over Bills

Eagles over Bucs
49ers over Vikings

Championship weekend

Bengals over Chiefs
Eagles over 49ers

Super Bowl

Bengals over Eagles

Bengals are the most complete team I saw this year — admittedly, I didn't see much of the Eagles. Tempted to go with Bills being the team of destiny, but the Bengals are just too good.