Apologies on the delayed posting of this. Patriots season-ending reporting took precedence - and got pushed back again with Thursday night's breaking news. We'll be back next week to review the season.
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Give the Patriots' defensive coaches credit: they did indeed throw the kitchen sink at Josh Allen and the Bills in the season finale.
What a stark difference from the first loss to Buffalo. In that one, New England basically sat on their hands, and hoped Allen and the Bills would show them mercy on the scoreboard - which they did. In that game, the Patriots only blitzed 15%, generated pressure on 20% of dropbacks, and just tried not to give up the big play.
This time around, the Patriots were much more aggressive. New England sent extra rushers on 27% of dropbacks — easily their most since Week 6 against the Browns. That, in turn, generated a 49% pressure rate — one of their highest of the season. Combine that with the Patriots constantly changing coverage and pressure looks, and that's about as difficult as they can make it on Allen.
The problem? It still wasn't enough, not even close.
The Bills might have run around and through the Patriots last year in their final two meetings of the year, but you got the sense it didn't bother Bill Belichick all that much because there were so many injury issues on New England — especially in the playoff matchup — Matthew Judon was in the middle of a disappearing act, and Allen and the Bills had shot up to a new level at the end of that season.
Not as many ready explanations this time around.
This had to feel emasculating, unless you want to take the false view that the two kickoff returns did in the Patriots and the defense was fine. That's not taking into account how the Bills could have scored on those drives, and how much time off the field it bought the Patriots' defense and left them more fresh to defend the Bills (and more varying defensive calls at their disposal since Buffalo only ran 58 plays). When you consider the Patriots' defense was only on the field for 4:07 in the third quarter, it makes Allen's 7 of 12, 158-yard, 2 TD second half look even worse.
Plus, we had the Bills for eight critical unforced errors in this game, including two drops (one for a touchdown) and four bad throws from Allen, who wasn't on top of his game.
Plus, the Patriots had the entire year to get ready to defend the Bills, and had data from the first matchup — not to mention Buffalo was dealing with the Damar Hamlin situation.
Yes, the Patriots were down some cornerbacks (everyone is) but that doesn't begin to explain how New England hasn't closed the gap on the Bills' offense — which is actually lacking playmakers themselves and could stand to improve in that area in the offseason (a scary thought).
Yes, Allen's an awesome talent but when you consider his underwhelming performance and that the Patriots did a great job against him — their rush plan was excellent. They seemed focused on flushing him to his left (instead of the right), which led to him running nines times for just 16 yards (1.8 average) and sacking him twice. That's a tremendous job. Allen normally kills the Patriots with his legs, and they made it a non-factor this time around.
And it just wasn't enough. The Patriots just aren't good enough on all three levels to combat Allen — especially in the secondary. All three touchdowns were either the Patriots busting a coverage (John Brown when Jonathan Jones forgot about his Cover 3 responsibility) or just getting beat (Kyle Dugger on Dawson Knox, Jones against Stefon Diggs). And it doesn't help when the pass rush isn't getting there in time on the biggest plays.
If anything, this game should fortify the Foxborough thinking that last year was not a one-off, and they have to get serious about getting the talent to match the Bills and Allen if they ever want to a division title as long as he's there and healthy. Their pass rush pieces are nice, especially against average teams, but it's not dynamic enough. Their linebackers should have been more exposed by the Bills, but they're lacking a fast, effective blitzer from there. The Patriots have to get someone to defend Diggs — and the Bills are surely going to get more weaponry to deal with. Dugger needs to be better against Knox in big spots.
There was a lot to like from the Patriots' defense in this one, but sadly they are still a ways off because their talent has a ceiling against the best.
Here are the positional ratings against the Bills:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (2.5 out of 5)
Much like Mac Jones' season, this one was a mixed bag. All three interceptions could have been better throws, but others factored into them as well. Nelson Agholor didn't fight on a pass that was the exact same one DeVante Parker would later score on (don't think Agholor, 4 total snaps, played after that). Cole Strange allowed pressure to Jones' face on the second one. Jones' throw to Hunter Henry would be a completion for a TD nine of 10 times, but Jones threw it a half-beat early due to the pressure, and Henry didn't have time to time his jump right. The last one was a harmless garbage-time checkdown to Damien Harris who normally catches that but probably didn't expect it. .... Still, Jones missed other throws - one to Jakobi Meyers, short of Harris in the end zone and a big third-down incompletion to Tyquan Thornton (after a terrible, slow route) should have gone to an open Henry. ... But there were a lot of good throws as well, especially the TD to Meyers, a third-down throw to Henry under pressure, and on the Parker TD, Jones stayed in and took a shot.
Running backs (2.5 out of 5)
Rhamondre Stevenson limped to the finish line this season due to a heavy workload, and this was no exception with a drop, fumble and knockdown allowed. Was very good with the ball in his hands. ... Damien Harris was sorely missed this season, and he always seemed to make something happen when he touched it. He did have a failed blitz pickup. That was an issue for this group later in the season. It was rarely a problem in previous years.
Receivers (3 out of 5)
Parker, Meyers and Bourne all had highlights, but this entire group had its share of issues. ... Parker's big plays show how much the Patriots miss a physical presence when he's not on the field, which has been a problem throughout his career. ... Parker, Meyers and Bourne all had drops, Henry had an OPI penalty and could have had another. ... Thornton ran two bad routes. ... This game left you thinking, 'If everyone stayed healthy and they ran a real offense, the Patriots would have been OK on that side of the ball.' Sigh. The talent is there. No one is dominating, but they all do something well. Amazing what happens when Bourne gets consistent playing time.
Offensive line (3 out of 5)
The interior was largely good (Strange struggled some in run blocking), but both tackles struggled. ... Brown gave up a hurry on the first INT, Strange the second. ... Conor McDermott has consistently been good in the first half, but struggles mightily in the second. Sad state of affairs that Yodny Cajuste could not play over a guy off another practice squad. ... David Andrews and Mike Onwenu did a great job in the run game, especially on double teams up to the linebackers. They rendered Matt Milano and Tremaine Edmunds largely non-factors.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
Thought this group was really good for the most part and gave Allen some fits with their pass rush. They were mostly disciplined, but Josh Uche (two), Lawrence Guy, Daniel Ekuale and Anfernee Jennings all allowed some Allen escapes that hurt. Have to be basically perfect against him, and Patriots defenses of yesteryear had that potential, but those days are gone. There are always big mistakes on all three levels, especially against the best teams. Those teams make the Patriots pay, the average and others don't. ... Very quiet game from Matthew Judon again against the Bills. Mildly concerning. ... Wise and Barmore brought the most consistent pressure. Barmore closed the season strong. Hopefully he stays healthy going forward.
Linebackers (2 out of 5)
Just a meh game from this group. Jahlani Tavai got his hands a pass for once (zone drops have been issue for this group all year), but the line-drive pass from Allen was puzzling. ... Ja'Whaun Bentley is solid, nothing more. ... Raekwon McMillan was awful in the run game, allowing two 10-yard runs when he was easily blocked.
Secondary (1 out of 5)
Outside of Devin McCourty (INT, PBU in end zone, fumble recover) — who did a great job making Allen double clutch on his eventual interception by deftly playing two different routes — and Jonathan Jones' forced fumble, this group was again punching out of their weight class against Allen and Co. And outside Stefon Diggs, I don't think the Bills are really that good with weapons. ... Jones gave up two touchdowns. Marcus Jones gave up 19 yards on 3rd and 7, Jabrill Peppers missed a 28-yard missed tackle. ... We wrote about it last week, but Kyle Dugger again struggled in a big spot. He gives up just as many as he makes. On the Knox TD, Dugger again got his eyes in the backfield. A constant issue. ... People love to kill Myles Bryant, but I really didn't see much wrong in his play. He might have been in the area on some throws, but that doesn't mean it was his responsibility (like the Brown TD, where McCourty stared daggers at Jon Jones).
FIVE UP
Christian Barmore: Finished being just a complete menace to other teams.
Deatrich Wise: The dude can generate pass rush, that's for sure. Those long arms and legs cause big leverage issues.
DeVante Parker: Feels like the team's only legitimate red zone threat at times.
Kendrick Bourne: When's allowed outside the doghouse, damn, he's good. Damn shame what happened to him this season.
David Andrews: The Bills are tough inside and it wasn't much of an issue due to his play.
FIVE DOWN
Special teams: This is obvious.
Nelson Agholor: Gets one target, doesn't give a great effort and then is never heard from.
Raekwon McMillan: Rarely makes an impact and is often a big liability in the run game - like the other teams target him.
Kyle Dugger: These are the types of games where the Patriots need him to be a difference-maker, and he's just not.
Conor McDermott: His second halves have been killing the offense.