NO. 1 GEORGIA vs. NO. 3 TCU at SoFi Stadium in Inglewood, Calif. 7:30 p.m. on ESPN
A little different format this week. Leaving last week’s notes on the prospects along with some thoughts on their performance in the semifinal game. Before we get there, some thoughts on the matchup.
- An intriguing matchup, especially if you like an underdog vs. a heavyweight storyline.
- Both teams won classic games in the semifinals. Georgia had to play from behind which they haven’t had to do much this year. TCU was incredibly opportunistic which is a sign of a good team.
- TCU was faster and matched Michigan’s physicality. It was impressive and they’ll need to do the same against Georgia. The Bulldogs are bigger and much faster than Michigan.
- TCU is 6-1 in one-score games, with their lone loss being against Kansas State in overtime.
- TCU’s Max Duggan won the Big 12 OPOY Award and was a Heisman finalist.
- TCU LB Johnny Hodges (Bill, he’s a former Navy transfer who used to play lacrosse!) leads the Horned Frogs in tackles and was Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year. He’s expected to return to TCU next season.
- WR Derius Davis won the Special Teams Player for the Year. He’s more of a gadget player but he has legit speed.
- Georgia is well-coached on both sides of the ball. On offense, they rotate their backs (like an NFL offense) and spread the ball around which leads to incredible balance.
- Georgia QB Stetson Bennett only has one loss in the last two seasons as a starter. A win would secure his second National Title.
- Bennett does a good job distributing the ball, but I expect a big game from Georgia TE Brock Bowers. He was huge for Georgia in the 4th quarter last week.
- Georgia stops the run and makes teams beat them with the pass. They get ahead and it allows for a creative rush. TCU's offensive line dominated Michigan up-front last week, running for 263 total yards. Sonny Dykes’ team is well-balanced on offense.
- Ohio State C.J. Stroud was effective leaving the pocket (71 rushing yards) and Georgia will need to tighten that up against TCU’s QB, Duggan. He’s better with his legs.
- TCU is fast and physical. Their 3-3-5 defense was effective against Michigan. It essentially shoots gaps and it’s difficult to beat without patience and execution. Stetson Bennett’s experience and Georgia staff should help.
- The key for TCU is to get up on Georgia, stop the run, and force them to be one-dimensional.
- Expect the Horned Frogs to try to go fast with tempo and spread out the Georgia defense with their formations.
- TCU often beat the Michigan defensive blitz for big plays. Georgia will need to get home without the blitz or hold firm on the backend. The only way I see TCU winning is if they pop several big plays. They are one of the best teams at chunk plays.
- I believe Georgia’s corners can be beaten. I said that last week and Stroud from Ohio State (better player) threw for 348 yards and 4 TDs. Ohio State may have won the game if their best player, Marvin Harrison Jr., hadn’t suffered a concussion. He was dominating to that point.
- Kelee Ringo vs. Quentin Johnston is a key matchup to watch. More below.
- Lastly, Georgia OLB and captain Nolan Smith is out for the year with a torn pec. Other key contributors, TE Darnell Washington, RT Warren McClendon, LB Chaz Chambliss, and WR Ladd McConkey are questionable. For TCU the big question is RB Kendre Miller.
- Prediction: Winning back-to-back titles is hard (Alabama has only done it once under Saban) and TCU is an awesome story. They are a good team, and they play hard. But I don’t feel good about them winning. I think Georgia’s depth and size take over in the second half. Georgia 44 - TCU 21.
Potential First Rounders
Georgia DT #88 Jalen Carter (6-foot-3, 310 pounds): This is what I said about Carter before last year’s playoffs. “Every time I watch a game, this kid makes an explosive or disruptive play. He doesn’t have Richard Seymour’s height but has his style. He’ll be a name to know, future first-rounder.” He seems to always be moving through blocks. While he’s a good enough football player to be scheme versatile, he’s a penetrating 3 technique who’s a likely top-5 pick. I think a good comp is current Jet, Quinnen Williams.
Last week: He wasn’t that effective against Ohio State at least on the stat line. He played a career high in snaps and while he made some impactful plays, he didn’t change the game. That said, Ohio State did have a plan for him and decided to not even run between the tackles (only 7 carries inside the tackles for 2.6 YPC).
Georgia OT #59 Broderick Jones, (6-4, 310): He’s a former 5-star prospect in his first full season as the starter. He’s full of talent and he’s been effective, not allowing a sack all year. His high-end athleticism really helps him in the pass game, and he has power in the run game. Needs to tighten up his technique (especially on counter moves) but the potential is obvious. He’s well built (reminds me of former Raven, Eugene Monroe). He hasn’t played a ton, and experience is desired in a tackle prospect, so teams will have to get comfortable that he isn’t a finished product but he’s worth the bet.
Last Week: I thought it was a really good game for Jones. He’s good on the move and effectively clears a defensive target once he locks in. He had another clean sheet in the pass game. He’s a guy the Patriots will evaluate deeply for Round 1.
TCU WR #1 Quentin Johnston (6-4, 215): The true junior is one of the biggest receivers in the draft. He can test a defense with his speed (sub-4.5) and he’s especially dangerous after the catch (surprisingly so given his size). He needs some route-running polish, but he reminds me of Mike Williams when he was at Clemson.
Last Week: He had 6 catches for 163 yards and 1 long TD (76 yds) that came in a huge moment in the 4th qtr. He’ll need to win his matchups against Ringo and the Georgia secondary. Johnston just looks like he belongs on an NFL field.
Georgia CB #5 Kelee Ringo, Georgia (6-2, 210): If you were making a CB in a video game it might be him. He has safety size and a track speed (4.3ish). He’s an outside CB because of that combo and should have the strength to effectively jam with the right technique.
His match-up against super sophomore Marvin Harrison Jr. (yes, the son of former Colt, Marvin Harrison) is a key to the game. The intriguing thing with Ringo is that he’s the rare corner that won’t be at a physical mismatch against the 6-foot-4, 205-pound wide receiver.
While the idea is that Ringo plays like Patrick Peterson, I am not sure his football speed matches his track numbers. He can also be targeted inside because he’s not terribly fluid in the hips. There are certainly things to like, he’s confident, physical, hunts for the ball, top competition, etc. While he’s likely Round 1, I am a bit lower on him than most because I think he’s still a work in progress.
Last Week: He struggled on the big stage against a fellow top-tier prospect. He finished with 5 tackles and 1 PBU but Ohio State attacked him. They targeted him 13 times which shouldn’t happen at the college level (from this level prospect).
Top 100 Prospects
TCU OG #79 Steve Avila, TCU (6-4, 330): He’s experienced, and he’s played all over the line of scrimmage. He was All-Big 12 last season as a center, and he was All-Big 12 this year at guard. His versatility will help and while he carries some heft, he’s an athletic mover that packs a punch.
Last Week: Great performance by Avila and the whole TCU line. They rushed for over 250+ yards against a previously strong Michigan front. Avila has some pop when he hits, and he still hasn’t surrendered a sack this year. Avila’s matchup against DT Carter is one of the premier 1v1’s in the title game. He plays well in that one and now he has a legit chance to be top 50.
Georgia TE #0 Darnell Washington (6-7, 270): He’s a physical specimen. Sometimes scouts take the “alien test”. How many guys in the world are that size, move that fast, and have that type of agility? Things that you can’t coach. Washington looks like an offensive tackle that can hop over defensive backs. He still needs development, and I don’t think he’ll break receiving records in the NFL. I’ve been saying for two years he reminds me of current Packer, Mercedes Lewis. That fits exactly what the Patriots need for their scheme.
A great stat for a TE, 22 of his 26 catches went for first downs or TDs.
Worth noting, fellow TE, Brock Bowers (#19), isn’t eligible for the draft but he’s the best offensive player for the Bulldogs.
Last Week: He had 1 catch for 9 yards before hurting his ankle and needing help to the locker room. The Georgia program says he’s a game-time decision. His blocking chops would be missed, especially against a 3-3-5 front.
Georgia S #29 Chris Smith (5-11, 195): Ringo is a better prospect, but I think Smith might be their best playmaker in the secondary. He’s really the glue on their back end. Smith was hurt in the SEC Championship against Alabama last year and it cost them. He’s a versatile free safety who is a decent tackler (4th on the team in tackles) and leads the Bulldogs with 3 INTs. I think he could be a third-rounder.
Last week: The leader of the Bulldog secondary had 8 solo tackles. While he’s not the biggest or fastest, he’s a smart player that plays with good instincts. He would be a good FS addition to replace Devin McCourty.
TCU DE #98 Dylan Horton (6-4, 275): He’s a player to watch because of his frame. He started his career at New Mexico and was recruited as a safety. He was a 3-sport star in high school, and he’ll test well at the Combine. He led TCU in TFLs last year; he was second this year. Their scheme doesn’t maximize his potential, but the NFL won’t just look at his stats. The potential is there, and they’ll need him to be productive on Saturday.
Last Week: We’ve covered Horton twice this year, but the semifinal was his coming out party nationally. He was a monster with 6 tackles, 4 sacks, 1 FF, and PBU. They don’t win without his relentless performance. He’ll be on the rise like we said last week.
Potential Day 3
Georgia C #63 Sedrick Van Pran (6-4, 310): He was a rock on their national title team last year. He doesn’t make many mistakes in the run game. In the pass game he has a very strong anchor, which makes him difficult to overpower but he needs to clean up his technique. Potential starter at the next level.
Last Week: He struggled against the Ohio State front a bit. Georgia did not run the ball terribly well and Van Pran gave up a few pressures.
Georgia RB #6 Kenny McIntosh (6-1, 210): Averaging 5.2 YPC, he’s the guy they’ll trust in the red area. Georgia is similar to an NFL team with how they rotate their backfield. McIntosh doesn’t have much tread on his tires. He’s comfortable catching the ball out of the backfield; he’s their third leading catcher right now (he had 9 catches in the game I watched against Oregon). He has an NFL frame, solid balance, and a pretty good burst. I see him as a Round 4 or Round 5 player.
Last week: He had 10 touches for 126 yards and 2 TDs. Great game by McIntosh. I expect him to be a good NFL player when he gets his chance.
TCU RB #33 Kendre Miller (6-2, 220): Early down back with good footwork and enough speed. He's been moving up draft boards all season. He’s averaging over 100 YPG with 1,343 yards this season (6.2 YPC) and 17 TDs. He has 109 broken tackles in his career and 3.8 YAC. This is a good test for Miller since Michigan is one the hardest teams to run against in the country. He’s a Day 3 guy who has NFL size and traits.
Last Week: Miller hurt his knee in the first half and never returned. He was off to a great start with 8 rushes for 57 yards. They have him listed as questionable for Monday’s title game and it would be big for TCU if he was healthy. Senior Emari Demercado was effective as a replacement, rushing for 152 yards on 17 carries.
TCU LB #13 Dee Winters (6-0, 230): He’s not a lock to be drafted because of his size and consistency. But he’s a captain for the Horned Frogs and first-team All-Big 12. He’s a solid blitzer with 7.5 sacks a year. If they need a big play from their front seven, it’s likely coming from him.
Last Week: We nailed the Winters evaluation last week and he made himself some money by ensuring he’ll be drafted with this performance. He had 7 solo tackles, 3 TFL, 1 PBU, and 1 INT that he returned for a TD. His size will be an issue at the next level, so how he tests and measures will be important, but he plays fast.
TCU CB #1 Trevius Hodges-Tomlinson (5-9, 180): He has 37 PBUs over the last few seasons (3x All-Big 12). That’s pretty good ball production given his size. He plays mostly outside for the Horned Frogs but seems to have good hips which would allow him to move inside in the NFL. He’s a competitor and a good athlete but size will limit how early he gets drafted. He’s the nephew of fellow alum and Hall of Famer, LaDainian Tomlinson.
Last Week: The Jim Thorpe winner had 3 tackles and 3 PBU. He’s small and got beat deep a number of times. While he’s a competitor he’s not going to over much in the run game if (when) he moves inside.
TCU QB #15 Max Duggan (6-2, 210): Highly rated recruit who played early but as the TCU program struggled the last two seasons, he took a lot of heat. He’s a tough and smart dual-threat player who is having an outstanding season. He’s connecting on 63% of his passes and he has 40 total TDs, with only 6 INTs (updated). While he’s good on short throws, he doesn’t have the best touch and consistency on intermediate to big time passes. He can also lock on receivers. Expect Michigan to force the issue with coverage looks and intermediate throws that require touch. He reminds me of Saints utility player, Taysom Hill, when he was at BYU.
Last Week: Duggan wasn’t that effective through the air, but he was effective. He completed 14-29 attempts, 225 yards and 2 TDs. He also turned the ball over twice (one of which bounced off his receiver’s hands). Running the football continues to be where he is lethal. He had 64 yards and 2 TDs on 15 tough carries.
TCU WR #11 Derius Davis (5-10, 175): Conference Player of the Year on Special Teams. He averages 14 YPR on punts (2 TDs) and 20 YPR on kicks. While he’s second on the team with 35 receptions and tied for first with 5 TDs, his value at the next level will be as a returner. He’s one of the best in the country.
Last Week: He’s more of a gadget player but he may be one of the fastest players in this draft cycle. He only had 2 catches but he’s more dangerous in the return game. He had 106 return yards highlighted by his 31-yard punt return.
Georgia OT #70 Warren McClendon (6-4, 300): First-team All-SEC by the coaches, and he's started 38 games for the Bulldogs. He has solid athleticism but needs to work on his anchor. He’s likely a guard at the next level.
Last Week: He was a game-time decision and didn’t end up playing. Same label this week and it’s not clear he’ll play yet.
Georgia QB #13 Stetson Bennett (5-11, 190): There’s something to be said for winning at a high level. Throwing for 4 TDs in the SEC Title game and only having 1 loss in the last 2 seasons is impressive. The larger, and murkier question is how it actually translates to the NFL. He’s accurate (68%) but Georgia uses his athleticism to get him clean looks via rollouts, short passes, play action, etc. That gets harder in the NFL. What you like is that he isn’t afraid of competition and he’s a gamer but he’s going to be 26 next year and doesn’t do anything at an elite level. Very late pick or PFA.
Last Week: He’ll be a legend around Athens for a long, long time. He’s a gambler and that’s where you see the 2 turnovers, but he showed up when they needed him. He led them back from double-digit deficits twice and a late 4th quarter TD drive to win the game. His stat line was 23/34 for 398 yards and 4 total TDs (2 turnovers).
Top Fits for the Patriots
- Georgia LT Broderick Jones
- Georgia TE Darnell Washington (game-time decision)
- Georgia S Christopher Smith
- TCU DE Dylan Horton
- TCU LB Johnny Hodges (technically eligible but expected to return)
Underclassmen to Watch
- Georgia TE Brock Bowers (#19)
- Georgia LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (#10)
- Georgia S Malaki Starks (#24)
- Georgia RB Daijun Edwards (#30)
- TCU CB Josh Newton (#24)