It's fairly easy to look at the splash plays that Kyle Dugger has made this season — three returns for a touchdown, including game-changing plays against the Raiders and Dolphins — and conclude that's the way he always plays, throughout most of the games. We've heard a lot of that this week, especially on the national pundit level.
Of course, that's an extremely incomplete evaluation of a player — and rarely ever truthful.
In many ways, Dugger's performance on Sunday against the Dolphins is a perfect illustration of his Patriots career as his third season winds down.
The talent and his skillset are absolutely undeniable. There's nothing he can't do on the football field when he's dialed in. He can be a sledgehammer in the run game, pull of breathtaking blitzes from the second level, and has the athletic ability to pull off game-changing plays that not many can at his position.
I mean, you could see it in his first extended playing time at Seattle as a rookie. It left me, basically, panting.
He should be the Patriots' version of Jamal Adams in short order.
— Greg A. Bedard (@GregABedard) September 22, 2020
But has he really come all that far, as a complete defender since then? It's a legitimate question, especially following Sunday.
There are also a lot of plays, especially in this game, where you wonder if he's ever going to take that last, final step — and he's tantalizingly close at this point — to become a down-in, down-out dominating and impact defender.
Because he's not there yet. He just isn't. On film, it's an undeniable fact. Despite the pick-6, this was actually one of my lowest-rated games for Dugger this season.
And then you remember that, despite finishing just his third season, Dugger is far from a kid. When the Patriots drafted him in the second round in 2020 out of Lenior-Rhyne, he was 24 years old. He will be 27 heading into the final year of his rookie contract next season, when many players of his experience would just be approaching their mid-20s. It's part of the evaluation of Dugger when it comes to giving him a contract extension, perhaps as soon as this offseason. Is he worthy of one? Sure, it's not like he's a bad player or needs to be replaced — don't confuse things. But at 27, is he going to get appreciably better over the course of his next contract, say 3 or 4 years? How much will it be worth to extend a player that may be an occasional Pro Bowler, but it's tough to project (though not impossible) to do the same as an All-Pro?
I mean, read my post-draft analysis of Dugger after watching his film. Has all that much changed?
But the Patriots also factor into this, and not all that well. You could make a substantial case that they have not utilized Dugger in the way he should be – as an in-the-box game wrecker similar to Seattle's Jamal Adams (but better) — either on purpose because they need him to fit there due to personnel issues elsewhere, incompetence because they just don't see it, or because they don't think he can handle it (they know him better than we do, obviously).
In many ways, as we said in Dugger's post-draft evaluation, he is the evolution of the man he replaced, Patrick Chung — bigger, faster ... Dugger does everything better except maybe tackle. The Patriots admitted they didn't use Chung properly in his first stint (as more of a true free safety), but knocked it out of the park once he returned to the team. Maybe the same thing is happening again.
On film, Dugger still isn't consistent enough to be tagged with a star label. Does he have star talent? Hell yes. Does he make star plays? Absolutely.
But that doesn't make you a star, or one of the best. Consistency determines that, and Dugger is still way too inconsistent, as we'll illustrate with the film before getting into the positional ratings, game charts and 5 up/5 down from the win over the Dolphins:
THE GOOD
1Q 2-8-MIA 38 (4:07) J.Wilson right guard to MIA 40 for 2 yards (K.Dugger; D.Godchaux).
Dugger beats a block and lays a brutal hit on the running back. Not many safeties, maybe outside Jabrill Peppers, hit with this much force. It's legit.
3Q 3-15-MIA 24 (3:03) (Shotgun) T.Bridgewater pass short right intended for T.Sherfield INTERCEPTED by K.Dugger at MIA 39. K.Dugger for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIA-T.Bridgewater was injured during the play. NE 23-Dugger 3rd def. TD of season, 1st Patriot to do that since 1970. Patriots 7th defensive TD of season, new franchise record. Patriots defensive TD in 4 straight games, new franchise record (first NFL occurence since TB 2002).
We've been over this play. Very nice read, nice pick, sensational return.
THE NOT-SO GOOD
2Q 3-3-MIA 39 (8:41) (Shotgun) T.Bridgewater pass short right to R.Mostert to NE 36 for 25 yards (J.Uche).
One of many Patriots to miss the tackle here, but he's the first and he comes in with bad level and tries to make a weak arm tackle. The whole defense was kind of embarrassing on this one.
3Q 1-10-NE 41 (12:02) T.Bridgewater pass short middle to J.Waddle to NE 18 for 23 yards (M.Bryant).
Falls hard for the playaction — about four steps more than fellow linebacker (on this play) Raekwon McMillan — and his void leads to an easy pitch and catch for a plus-20 play.
4Q 3-9-NE 37 (14:55) (Shotgun) S.Thompson scrambles up the middle ran ob at NE 26 for 11 yards (M.Bryant
PENALTY on MIA-T.Hill, Illegal Shift, 5 yards, enforced at NE 37 - No Play
This play didn't count because of a ticky-tack shift penalty on Tyreek Hill, but Dugger didn't know that at the time. Pretty weak effort trying to stop Thompson on what would have been a third down conversion.
4Q 3-6-MIA 24 (11:58) (Shotgun) S.Thompson pass short right to J.Waddle to MIA 36 for 12 yards (J.Peppers).
Again, leaves his zone responsibility and being out of position compared to his teammates left the room for another third down conversion.
4Q 4-7-NE 48 (2:00) (Shotgun) S.Thompson pass short middle to T.Hill to NE 31 for 17 yards (K.Dugger).
This one isn't blatant and could definitely be argued, but his pass drop left too much room for Thompson to fit this in. He could have read this play better and been more competitive.
4Q 1-4-NE 4 (1:11) (Shotgun) S.Thompson pass short right to M.Gesicki for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Similar to the Buffalo touchdowns he always seems to give up in the same corner of the end zone, Dugger loses his coverage responsibility and is too late to prevent a touchdown. He's better than this. This pass should not get by him.
Here are the positional ratings against the Dolphins:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (3 out of 5)
Live, I wasn't so hot on Mac Jones, but I thought he was better on film because, as usual, you can see the continued flaws in the Patriots' passing games — mostly the route timing and spacing that continue to plague it. It was far from perfect. Jones threw behind Jakobi Meyers, way overthrew Nelson Agholor (on third down), threw incomplete to Tyquan Thornton when Meyers was WIDE open for a big gain, and threw behind Thornton in the end zone on the bobble. But Jones also made some really nice, big-time throws (seven by our count). ... We didn't put any of the QB pressures on Jones, and he was actually really let down by Rhamondre Stevenson (whiffed on two blitz pickups) and Conor McDermott in this regard. ... Most of the indecision you see in the pocket continues to be because the receivers are not ready for the ball when Jones wants to throw against that coverage — and he's usually right. We had seven poor routes in this game.
Running backs (2 out of 5)
Damien Harris' legs looked lively and we'd like to see more of that, and he's a more natural pass catcher than Stevenson, so it was nice to have him back. ... Not one of Stevenson's better games and, in fact, he's in a bit of a slump. Perhaps it's tired legs from his workload, but Stevenson now has a negative or even rating in four-straight games. He has one the rest of the season. ... That pass that looked behind him was Stevenson again showing late to Jones, who wanted to throw to the back earlier. This is not hard stuff.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
Jakobi Meyers was terrific in this game, especially with his ability to find separation against Miami's man coverage and backup cornerbacks. ... Thornton is improving, but he has very little feel for getting open in zone coverage. He doesn't see the voids that Jones does. Three poor routes in this one. ... Hunter Henry had one route and a drop, Kendrick Bourne had two routes and a penalty. ... Puzzling that Dolphins DC Josh Boyer continued to play press man with backup CBs. Really dumb.
Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)
Breaking news ... Cole Strange had his first positive game (not easy the way I grade linemen) of the season. Just one pressure allowed, and I thought he had some really sensational one-on-one pass blocks. Now, don't go crazy quite yet. He didn't go up against Christian Wilkins. Mike Onwenu did, which makes his zero-pressure performance all the more impressive. And 1.5 stuffed runs is pretty good against 94. ... Very surprised David Andrews struggled as much as he did. It was his lowest-rated full game of the season. ... Trent Brown had a bad first half, but had a clean sheet in the second.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (3.5 out of 5)
Far from perfect, especially in relation to the pressure against a badly injured line (it really didn't kick in until Skylar Thompson got into the game and the Patriots had the lead, but he was mostly solid. ... Christian Barmore had his way against subpar competition. We'll see if he can continue that this week. Josh Uche, Matthew Judon and Deatrich Wise were also impactful. ... I forgot Davon Godchaux played in this game until I saw a bad gap on his sheet. .... Anfernee Jennings can set a good edge, I'll give him that.
Linebackers (2 out of 5)
A good game from Ja'Whaun Bentley for the most part. Did a really nice job in the running game. ... Jahlani Tavai got a bit exposed in this game, and allowed a touchdown on the goal line.
Secondary (2 out of 5)
Don't be fooled by the lack of production by Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle in this game. It had very little to do with the Patriots' play or execution, I don't care how many cornerbacks they were down (Tae Hayes only played 24 snaps; Quandre Mosely 1). This had everything to do with Mike McDaniel's choices and Teddy Bridgewater not making plays that were there for him. ... McDaniel was obviously trying to protect his line, but I don't know how he looked at this Patriots defense and his speed and though the way to go was to run up the middle in condensed formations. I would have spread the crap out of the Patriots and just gashed them with quick throws and gun runs (which the Dolphins did when they went spread, which was far too infrequent). The Dolphins' coaches lost this game more than the Patriots won it. ... Both safeties, Dugger and Devin McCourty had poor games over the course of 60 snaps. Love McCourty, but he's looking older by the week. He should have been better on the Hill touchdown, missed a tackle and dropped that punt interception. ... Jonathan Jones and Jabrill Peppers (man that guy can hit) were the best of the bunch.
FIVE UP
Christian Barmore: Beast mode was activated in an easy personal matchup.
Jakobi Meyers: Only receiver that does his job with any regularity.
Mike Ownenu: Very much held his own vs. Wilkins.
Jonathan Jones: Good, solid day of work against a lot of speed.
Cole Strange: Best game of the season. Have to give him a spot. Atta boy.
FIVE DOWN
Special teams: Since Week 11, the Patriots have the 2nd-lowest special teams DVOA in the league (Tampa). Terrible punting. Missed extra point. Brenden Schooler penalty. A dumb KO return. Unacceptable.
Conor McDermott: Got progressively worse at pass pro as the game went on, and wasn't great in the run game. If Yodny Cajuste is healthy, why isn't he playing? Nice player development (third-round pick).
Kendrick Bourne: KB, we all want you on the field. Stop making simple mistakes.
Rhamondre Stevenson: He seems to be a bit out of gas, not that the blocking has been great.
Devin McCourty: Just a little later on everything with each week. Hoping this is it for him. A great Patriot.
