NO. 2 MICHIGAN vs. NO. 3 TCU in Glendale, 4 p.m. on ESPN
BSJ article from last year previewing. Fun to go back and see where I hit and where I was wrong.
Thoughts on the matchup:
- Michigan’s star RB Blake Corum (upside would be Maurice Jones-Drew) is out for the season with a knee injury. Michigan has several underclassmen who are potential future prospects (see below), including RB Donovan Edwards. He ran for a combined 400 yards and 3 TDs against Ohio State and Purdue in the Big Ten Championship.
- Michigan doesn’t have a ton of high-end (first-round) talent, but they are very deep and lots of very talented underclassmen.
- Michigan has the best offensive line in football. They won the Joe Moore Award (given to the country’s best unit). OC Olu Oluwatimi won the Rimington and Outland Awards.
- Not a surprise but they are a big, physical, and well-coached football team.
- Michigan is excellent in the second half of games, especially the third quarter.
- TCU is 5-1 in one-score games with their lone loss being against Kansas State in overtime.
- Max Duggan won the Big 12 OPOY Award.
- TCU LB Johnny Hodges led the Horned Frogs in tackles and was Big 12 Defensive Newcomer of the Year.
- WR Derius Davis won the Special Teams Player for the Year.
- Duggan was a Heisman candidate and will be the main dish for TCU on the telecast. But the straw that stirs their drink is RB Kendre Miller (see below). Sonny Dykes’ team is well-balanced on offense.
- The TCU offense will try to spread out the Wolverines. I expect them to be 4 wide a fair amount.
- TCU needs to stop the run to have a chance in this game.
- Prediction: I expect it to be close in the first half before Michigan’s physicality starts to pay dividends. The Wolverines pull away in the second half and win by double digits. Michigan 30 - TCU 10
Potential First Rounders
WR #1 Quentin Johnston, TCU (6-4, 215): The true junior is one of the biggest receivers in the draft. He can test a defense with his speed (sub-4.5) and he’s especially dangerous after the catch (surprisingly so given his size). He needs some route-running polish, but he reminds me of Mike Williams when he was at Clemson. His match-up against the Michigan corners, especially the freshman Will Johnson (#2 is a future star), will be a key to the game.
Top 100 Prospects
Michigan NT #58 Mazi Smith (6-3, 337): He’s a player the Patriots should target to be their eventual nose tackle. He’s a big guy that plays a lot (not always the case at DT) which speaks to his stamina, smarts and athleticism to play situational football. He has elite strength and he’s incredibly agile. I think he will be a really productive player for 30 snaps a game.
Michigan RG #65 Zak Zinter (6-6, 315): For the consistent readers, you know I’ve been riding shotgun on the Zinter bandwagon since last season. The two long TD runs Michigan had in the 4th quarter against Ohio State were directly behind Zinter. He may not declare this year, but I think he has the best pro potential on that line of scrimmage. Plus, he’s a local guy (North Andover).
Michigan CB #5 DJ Turner (6-0, 180): Turner caught my eye against Ohio State last year Diving deeper, he has good measurables and speed (4.4 or under), and elite 3 cone drill. We took a deep dive on him earlier in the year; he needs to play with a little more control, but he has strong recovery speed and he’s willing to be physical. Michigan provided him some help over the type which doesn’t align with a top pick. I came away thinking Round 3 but there’s potential there. While he doesn’t have an INT this year, under 40% of passes have been completed when targeted and he’s broken up 9 passes.
This will be an important game for him against Quentin Johnson. If he has a strong playoff then he’s going to make himself some money and be a name to watch.
TCU OG #79 Steve Avila, TCU (6-4, 330): He’s experienced, and he’s played all over the line of scrimmage. He was All-Big 12 last season as a center, and he was All-Big 12 this year at guard. His versatility will help and while he carries some heft, he’s an athletic mover that packs a punch.
Michigan DE #90 Mike Morris (6-6, 292): He has the great size and enough athleticism for a 3-4 DE or strongside DE in a 4-3. He has good quickness off the ball, uses his length well, and plays with some power. He leads the Wolverines with 7.5 sacks and 11 TFL. He played hurt against Ohio State and sat out the Big Ten Championship. He’s expected to play on Saturday.
Michigan TE #86 Luke Schoonmaker (6-6, 250): The local New England prospect is the second-leading receiver for the Wolverines with 30 catches and 315 yards. We covered him earlier this year. He’s a balanced TE who can block and gets first downs. Offensive coordinators will like him because of his balance in the passing game but also his ability to block in the run game. I said earlier this year that I think Schoonmaker may have played himself into the top 100 picks.
Potential Day 3
DE #98 Dylan Horton, TCU (6-4, 275): He’s a player to watch because of his frame. He started his career at New Mexico and was recruited as a safety. He was a 3-sport star in high school, and he’ll test well at the Combine. He led TCU in TFLs last year; he was second this year. Their scheme doesn’t maximize his potential, but the NFL won’t just look at his stats. The potential is there, and they’ll need him to be productive on Saturday.
Michigan OC #55 Olusegun Oluwatimi (6-3, 307): He won the Rimington Award (CFB’s top center) this year and he was a finalist last year while at Virginia. He’s good on the move, gets to the second level and reaches blocks very effectively. Smart player who will be able to handle line calls at the next level. He’s only allowed two pressures this season. Finally, his leadership made an immediate impression within the Michigan program; they made him a reserve captain shortly after transferring.
TCU RB #33 Kendre Miller (6-2, 220): Early down back with good footwork and enough speed. He's been moving up draft boards all season. He’s averaging over 100 YPG with 1,343 yards this season (6.2 YPC) and 17 TDs. He has 109 broken tackles in his career and 3.8 YAC. This is a good test for Miller since Michigan is one the hardest teams to run against in the country. He’s a Day 3 guy who has NFL size and traits.
Michigan RT #76 Ryan Hayes (6-7, 305): He carries his weight well and does a good job using his length and athleticism (former TE) in pass blocking. His ability to anchor will be important and he'll want to be a better finisher in the run game. Good leadership traits according to Harbaugh. He'll need to develop more strength (and technique at that height) but his movement skills allow him to get to the second level consistently.
TCU CB #1 Trevius Hodges-Tomlinson (5-9, 180): He has 37 PBUs over the last few seasons (3x All-Big 12). That’s pretty good ball production given his size. He plays mostly outside for the Horned Frogs but seems to have good hips which would allow him to move inside in the NFL. He’s a competitor and a good athlete but size will limit how early he gets drafted. He’s the nephew of fellow alum and Hall of Famer, LaDainian Tomlinson.
TCU QB #15 Max Duggan (6-2, 210): Highly rated recruit who played early but as the TCU program struggled the last two seasons, he took a lot of heat. He’s a tough and smart dual-threat player who is having an outstanding season. He’s connecting on 65% of his passes and he has 36 total TDs, with only 4 INTs. While he’s good on short throws, he doesn’t have the best touch and accuracy on intermediate to big time passes. He can also lock on receivers. Expect Michigan to force the issue with coverage looks and intermediate throws that require touch. He reminds me of Saints utility player, Taysom Hill, when he was at BYU.
TCU WR #11 Derius Davis (5-10, 175): Conference Player of the Year on Special Teams. He averages 14 YPR on punts (2 TDs) and 20 YPR on kicks. While he’s second on the team with 35 receptions and tied for first with 5 TDs, his value at the next level will be as a returner. He’s one of the best in the country.
TCU LB #13 Dee Winters (6-0, 230): He’s not a lock to be drafted because of his size and consistency. But he’s a captain for the Horned Frogs and first-team All-Big 12. He’s a solid blitzer with 7.5 sacks a year. If they need a big play from their front seven, it’s likely coming from him.
Michigan K #13 Jake Moody (6-1, 210): He’s one of the best kickers in the country. He won the Lou Groza award last year and I expect he’ll win it again (he’s 26 for 32 with a long of 54 yards). Nick Folk has been a stud for the Patriots but he’s 38 years old. It’s not inconceivable the Patriots invest in the position to have a long-term answer.
Michigan WR #8 Ronnie Bell (6-0, 190): I’ll see Ronnie at the Senior Bowl in February. I don’t think he’s a lock to be drafted but he’s the best WR for the Wolverines. Plays hard, good hands, does all the little things well and that’s what will help him make a roster. His testing and medicals (he tore his ACL last year) will be important. He has 56 catches, 754 yards and 3 TDs this year.
Michigan CB #0 Mike Sainristil (5-10, 182): We’ve covered the Everett native several times this year. He’s a converted WR that is still figuring out the intricacies of the nickel role. He’s talented and I like his upside. He had a scrappy game against Ohio State (7 tackles, 2 PBU, 1 TD scored on him). Harbaugh reportedly loves him, and I’d love for the Patriots to take a chance on him late or as a PFA if he went undrafted.
Top Fits for the Patriots
- Michigan DT Mazi Smith
- Michigan CB DJ Turner or Michigan NB Mike Sainristil
- Michigan RG Zak Zinter
- Michigan TE Luke Schoonmaker
- TCU DE Dylan Horton
Top Underclassman to Watch
Michigan QB J.J. McCarthy (#9)
Michigan RB Donovan Edwards (#7)
Michigan CB Will Johnson (#2)
Michigan LB Junior Colson (#25)
Michigan S Rod Moore (#19)
Michigan TE Colston Loveland (#18)
Michigan WR Cornelius Johnson (#6)
Michigan DT Kris Jenkins (#94)
TCU CB Josh Newton (#24)
NO. 1 GEORGIA vs. NO. 4 Ohio State in Atlanta, 8 p.m. on ESPN
Thoughts on the matchup
- Two of the more talented teams in the country, current and future prospects.
- Ohio State has the athletes to match up. They need to answer the bell on physicality and toughness (especially along the lines of scrimmage).
- Georgia stops the run and makes teams beat them with the pass. They get ahead and they can bring pressure. For all the hoopla about Michigan stopping Ohio State, they still ran for over 5 YPC and 143 yards total. It would have been over 150 yards if the game was closer. That’s only happened to Georgia twice in the last 4 years.
- Georgia rotates their backs (like an NFL offense) and spreads the ball around very well which leads to incredible balance. It will be the best pass game Ohio State has seen all year and the best run game besides Michigan.
- Ohio State’s defense isn’t as good as Georgia, but they are close to if not more talented. Stopping the run and discipline is the key for them, especially in the play action game.
- Ohio State needs to limit the big plays, Michigan killed them with home run-hitting plays and then let their running game take over late in the second half.
- The key is to get up on Georgia and force them to be one dimensional.
- I believe Georgia’s corners can be beat. Ohio State must win that matchup and be patient doing it. They have 2 WRs over 1k yards receiving (both sophomores)
- The Kelee Ringo vs. Marvin Harrison Jr. matchup is one to watch. More below.
- For Georgia, they need to limit Marvin Harrison Jr. He’s the best wideout still playing and he has 72 catches, 1,100 yards, and 12 TDs. Even more impressive, 55 of those catches went for first down. If they limit him and they stop the run, Ohio State is in for a long day.
- Stroud needs to run, or Ohio State needs to keep him clean. He’s not the best in a dirty pocket. OSU has only given up 8 sacks this year but DT Jalen Carter (below) is an elite prospect that will be looking to collapse the pocket. If they take him out of the game, give him time and create some offensive balance then Ohio State wins.
- Three key injuries. Ohio State’s starting RB Trey’Veon Henderson is out for the season with a foot injury. Backup, and leading rusher, Miyan Williams has NFL potential so they should be fine. WR Jaxon Smith-Njigba is out for the year and preparing for the draft. He’s a Patriots target. Lastly, Georgia OLB and captain Nolan Smith is out for the year with a torn pec.
- Prediction: If Ohio State can match Georgia’s physicality and get ahead then it bodes well for them. Both big question marks and you could make a strong case that Georgia is a better version than Michigan. I think it’s closer than the experts think and we’re due for an upset in the college playoffs. Ohio State 34 - Georgia 31.
Potential First Rounders
Georgia DT #88 Jalen Carter (6-foot-3, 310 pounds): This is what I said about Carter before last year’s playoffs. “Every time I watch a game, this kid makes an explosive or disruptive play. He doesn’t have Richard Seymour’s height but has his style. He’ll be a name to know, future first-rounder.” He seems to always be moving through blocks. While he’s a good enough football player to be scheme versatile, he’s a penetrating 3 technique who’s a likely top-5 pick. I think a good comp is current Jet, Quinnen Williams. Ohio State will need to have a plan for him.
Ohio State QB #7 C.J. Stroud (6-foot-3, 218 pounds): Really important game for the top prospect. The Heisman runner-up is a good pocket QB (3,340 yards, 37 TDs, 6 INTs and completing 66% of his passes). Scouts would actually prefer he run more given his ability, but he throws with great anticipation and the best accuracy in the class. He can make some “wow” passes. That said, he’s going to get dinged for the “Ohio State effect”. Good arm, not great. Great offense around him (top skill, top line, top scheme) which means he has more talented players running open with time to throw the ball. Therefore this game is important for him. It won’t be easy; he’ll get moved off the spot and need to deliver in key moments. He’s a first-rounder and maybe as high as top 5.
Ohio State LT #77 Paris Johnson Jr. (6-6, 310): Paris is having a very good season and he’s the type of prospect you build in the lab with the ideal size and traits. He’s a smooth mover, smart player, and the coaching staff is very high on him. He’s only allowed 10 pressures and 1 sack this year. While he may need some more anchor to be consistent on Sundays, that upside puts him in the conversation to be a top tackle taken next year.
Georgia OT #59 Broderick Jones, (6-4, 310): He’s a former 5-star prospect in his first full season as the starter. He’s full of talent and he’s been effective, not allowing a sack all year. His high-end athleticism really helps him in the pass game, and he has power in the run game. Needs to tighten up his technique (especially on counter moves) but the potential is obvious. He’s well built (reminds me of former Raven, Eugene Monroe). He hasn’t played a ton, and experience is desired in a tackle prospect, so teams will have to get comfortable that he isn’t a finished product but he’s worth the bet.
CB #5 Kelee Ringo, Georgia (6-2, 210): If you were making a CB in a video game it might be him. He has safety size and a track speed (4.3ish). He’s an outside CB because of that combo and should have the strength to effectively jam with the right technique.
His match-up against super sophomore Marvin Harrison Jr. (yes, the son of former Colt, Marvin Harrison) is a key to the game. The intriguing thing with Ringo is that he’s the rare corner that won’t be at a physical mismatch against the 6-foot-4, 205-pound wide receiver.
While the idea is that Ringo plays like Patrick Peterson, I am not sure his football speed matches his track numbers. He can also be targeted inside because he’s not terribly fluid in the hips. There are certainly things to like, he’s confident, physical, hunts for the ball, top competition, etc. While he’s likely Round 1, I am a bit lower on him than most because I think he’s still a work in progress.
Ohio State RT #79 Dawand Jones (6-8, 350): He has some Trent Brown to him, which based on the Patriots LT’s recent play, isn’t going to generate much fanfare. But Jones is more athletic than he first appears. According to Ohio State teammates, he’s one of the best basketball players on their team.
He swallows up defenders in the pass game. His technique and conditioning have improved this year (and are critical for his success going forward). While I’d still like for him to stay with blocks longer and tighten his pass sets, he is effective (only 15 pressures in 2 years). He’s a guy that I am super interested to watch on the All-Star circuit. He could dominate and rise into Round 1 or fall to Round 3. Lots to be determined but I’ve consistently been higher on Dawand Jones than most.
Top 100 Picks
Georgia TE #0 Darnell Washington (6-7, 270): He’s a physical specimen. Sometimes scouts take the “alien test”. How many guys in the world are that size, move that fast, and have that type of agility? Things that you can’t coach. Washington looks like an offensive tackle that can hop over defensive backs. He still needs development, and I don’t think he’ll break receiving records in the NFL. I’ve been saying for two years he reminds me of current Packer, Mercedes Lewis. That fits exactly what the Patriots need for their scheme.
A great stat for a TE, 22 of his 26 catches went for first downs or TDs.
Worth noting, fellow TE, Brock Bowers (#19), isn’t eligible but he’s the best offensive player for the Bulldogs.
Ohio State DE #9 Zach Harrison (6-6, 272): He’s always been a great athlete but this year he’s really developed into a good player. As an edge rusher, Harrison looks the part and he'll make the occasional highlight play, but I haven’t had him in the top tier because he's never been consistent. While he has significant athleticism (that’s going to get him over drafted) he's not a bend-around-the-edge player. He’s playing better when he rushes from the inside. Kudos to the Buckeye coaches for being creative. I believe he might be better suited as a strongside DE or adding some weight to play a 3 technique. He’ll be a top 100 pick.
S #29 Chris Smith, Georgia (5-11, 195): Ringo is a better prospect, but I think Smith might be their best playmaker in the secondary. He’s really the glue on their back end. Smith was hurt in the SEC Championship against Alabama last year and it cost them. He’s a versatile free safety who is a decent tackler (4th on the team in tackles) and leads the Bulldogs with 3 INTs. I think he could be a third rounder.
C #63 Sedrick Van Pran, Georgia (6-4, 310): He was a rock on their national title team last year. He doesn’t make many mistakes in the run game. In the pass game he has a very strong anchor, which makes him difficult to overpower but he needs to clean-up his technique. Potential starter at the next level.
Potential Day 3
Ohio State LB #35 Tommy Eichenberg (6-2, 236): He’s a really good player that reminds me of A.J. Hawk. Whenever I watch Ohio State, I’ve been focused on other players, but he’s always gotten my attention. Really good instincts that allow him to play fast. I think he’ll be athletic enough for the next level, but testing will be important. Solid tackler (112) and led the Big Ten in solo tackles. But perhaps the best middle linebacker stat of all, he played the game against Michigan with 2 broken thumbs.
Ohio State OC #53 Luke Wypler (6-3, 300): He may not declare but he’ll be a top positional prospect when he does. He has plus athleticism for the position, and he’ll fit nicely in an NFL zone scheme. His run matchup against Georgia DT Jalen Carter is critical for Ohio State running the ball and protecting Stroud. This a tape that the NFL scouts will focus on.
RB #6 Kenny McIntosh, Georgia (6-1, 210): Averaging 5.2 YPC, he’s the guy they’ll trust in the red area. Georgia is like an NFL team with how they rotate their backfield. McIntosh doesn’t have much tread on his tires. He’s comfortable catching the ball out of the backfield; he’s their third leading catcher right now (he had 9 catches in the game I watched against Oregon). He has an NFL frame, solid balance, and a pretty good burst. I see him as a Round 4 or Round 5 player.
OT #70 Warren McClendon, Georgia (6-4, 300): First-team All-SEC by the coaches, and he's started 38 games for the Bulldogs. He has solid athleticism but needs to work on his anchor. He’s likely a guard at the next level.
Ohio State TE #8 Cade Stover (6-4, 255): He's a physical, tough midwestern TE that is deceptively good after the catch. It takes an effort to bring him down. While he’s not a primary target in their offense, he’s been able to feast on linebackers. Seeing him matched up against better athletes will be good for his evaluation. He had a tough game against Michigan. I think he could use another year of seasoning but if he does declare he will get picked because of his ability in both the run and pass game.
Ohio State SS #14 Ronnie Hickman (6-1, 205): A darling of PFF, he struggled in the game against Michigan. He plays all over the defense as Ohio State has switched up their play calling in the secondary this year. Largely, he’s been in coverage this year, averaging only 1 catch allowed per game and no TDs. Hickman led the team in tackles last year (100) and this will be his 26th career start. He has 51 tackles, 6 PBU, and 2 turnovers. It’s really important for the Buckeyes that their safeties play well against the Georgia tight ends. Discipline in play action will be critical. Hickman has already declared for the draft.
Ohio State FS #12 Lathan Ransom (6-1, 205): He’s an instinctive player and not shy about run support. He broke his leg in the Rose Bowl last year and he’s come back quickly to play a full season. He has 61 tackles, 3.5 TFL, 4 PBU, and 2 turnovers. While he’s eligible for the draft, consistency will help his draft stock (and in this game) and so he may return to school. That said, he has the highest potential within the Ohio State backfield.
Ohio State RB #3 Miyan Williams (5-9, 225): He’s a rolling ball of knives that is very difficult to tackle. Scouts will like the toughness, playing through a lower body injury in the game against Michigan. He’s been the best rusher for the Buckeyes. He’s averaging 6.5 YPC (817 yards) with 13 TDs this season. He’s been out of practice this week with a stomach bug, but he’s expected to play.
Ohio State OG #55 Matthew Jones (6-4, 315): His game is more strength than agility and he’s a potential All-Big Ten candidate. He has starter potential but isn’t always consistent. Ohio State’s ability to run the ball in the next couple of games will be important, not to mention the reps against Carter, for Jones’ draft profile. Right now, I have him as a late pick or PFA.
Georgia QB #13 Stetson Bennett (5-11, 190): There’s something to be said for winning at a high level. Throwing for 4 TDs in the SEC Title game and only having 1 loss in the last 2 seasons is impressive. The larger, and murkier question is how it actually translates to the NFL. He’s accurate (68%) but Georgia uses his athleticism to get him clean looks via rollouts, short passes, play action, etc. That gets harder in the NFL. What you like is that he isn’t afraid of competition and he’s a gamer but he’s going to be 26 next year and doesn’t do anything at an elite level. Very late pick or PFA.
Top Fits for the Patriots
- Georgia TE Darnell Washington
- Ohio State RT Dawand Jones
- Georgia LT Broderick Jones
- Georgia S Chris Smith
- Ohio State C Luke Wypler
Underclassman To Watch
Georgia TE Brock Bowers (#19)
Georgia LB Jamon Dumas-Johnson (#10)
Georgia S Malaki Starks (#24)
Georgia RB Daijun Edwards (#30)
Georgia WR Ladd McConkey (#84)
Ohio St WR Marvin Harrison Jr. (#18)
Ohio St WR Emeka Egbuka (#2)
Ohio St DE J.T. Tuimoloau (#44)
Ohio St DT Michael Hall Jr. (#51)
Ohio St LG Donovan Jackson (#74)