There are a few things that we've learned over the past couple of years and now know about the Patriots as it relates to their future.
1. That not every coach can coach any position, especially when it comes to offense.
2. The Patriots no longer are a team that plays their best ball after Thanksgiving.
3. Do not change offensive schemes, which takes away what your young QB and veteran center do best, after one season together to fit what the coaches may or may not be able to call.
4. Switching up personnel on a good offensive line without a veteran line coach with attention to detail probably isn't a great idea. The coaches obviously have zero confidence in said line to pass or run block well enough at this point, and that has caused them to largely turn into a gimmicky college offense to maintain possession and the defense off the field as much as it can.
And there's one more thing that has become apparent over the last few weeks, when the Patriots have graduated from playing bad teams and backup quarterbacks, to real offenses and good quarterbacks and multiple weapons: the Patriots don't believe in their secondary can compete — even with a pretty good pass rush. The Vikings' game (30 fo 37, 8.1 YPA, 3 TDs for Kirk Cousins) appeared to spook the coaches, or at least gave them a dose of reality. Against the Bills, Cardinals (until Kyler Murray was hurt on the third play), Raiders and Bengals, the Patriots largely went to different passive zones.
Especially against the Bills and, on Saturday, the Bengals, the Patriots' decisions defensively said, basically, "We can't match up. We're just trying to keep the score somewhat reasonable to give us a remote chance of winning."
Even still, the Patriots got absolutely whipped in the secondary by the Bengals. Combined, the Patriots had 22 minus plays in the secondary — which is the norm for about four games.
By halftime, the Patriots trailed a combined 39-7 — and it could have been worse if it weren't for some miscues by the opponents. Josh Allen and Joe Burrow combined to complete 70.2 percent of their passes, for 7.1 yards per attempt, 5 TDs and a passer rating of 111.9.
The Patriots are just trying to be a speed bump against the better quarterbacks — even when they are behind shaky offensive lines. Even after trailing big (factoring in the Patriots' offense) at halftime, New England only blitzed Allen 15 percent and Burrow 5.2 percent.
What further illustrates how much the coaches don't trust the secondary is that the Patriots actually have a good pass rush this season with Matthew Judon, Josh Uche, Deatrich Wise and, now that he's back, Christian Barmore — way better than other recent versions of this defense. But to make the rush effective, you have to play tight coverage to make the QB hold the ball to let the rush affect the passer. The Patriots are playing off the receivers so much now, the rush has zero chance — hence, the easy first halves.
If you're clinging to the fact that the Patriots "shut out" the Bengals in the second half, that may technically be correct, but that's not how the game was actually played:
- The Bengals took their foot off the gas and, considering the Patriots didn't even get into Bengals territory until the final play of the third quarter, it was warranted.
- The Bengals dropped a TD pass to end the game, and missed the subsequent field goal, early in the fourth quarter. If Trenton Irwin doesn't drop that wide-open pass against more zone coverage, the end of the game never happens.
- The Bengals were "stopped" because of 3 plays — a QB sneak in NE territory, an INT where the QB and WR weren't on the same page (it wasn't totally caused by the defense), and a fumble that can't happen. Carl Davis, Marcus Jones and Matthew Judon certainly made good plays, but if those plays happened to the Patriots, there would be calls for Cole Strange, Mac Jones and Rhamondre Stevenson to be benched.
- The Patriots had two three-and-outs when the Bengals were aiming to run clock.
- Similar to the Bills' game, the Patriots did not change their defensive approach at all after halftime — in fact, they blitzed less. In many ways, the Bengals stopped themselves.
Patriots used to famously be a bend-but-don't-break defense. Their approach in recent years is more apt to a speed bump. They're hoping just to slow down an opponent enough to compete — they've abandoned hope of stopping them.
That wasn't the case for the last three World Champion Patriots. After going a decade without a title, Bill Belichick realized he had to be able to play good man to thwart the better QB play and offenses around the league. Enter Darrelle Revis, Brandon Browner and Logan Ryan in 2014. In '16, it was Ryan, Malcolm Butler and Jonathan Jones. In '18, it was Stephon Gilmore, Jones and JC Jackson.
The Patriots aren't possibly headed for their second losing season in three years just because Tom Brady left. There have been multiple failures at planning for the inevitable departures in coaching, the front office and also with players. Gilmore and Jackson have predictably departed in recent years, without succession plans. Patriots could be losing Jones and Devin McCourty this offseason.
It's not a great situation now, and it doesn't look great for next season — but there is a possibility the Patriots could start to compete better against the upper echelon in the AFC if they do well this offseason. There's some promise.
Say Jones departs, which feels inevitable at this point. Marcus Jones has shown a lot of promise as a slot corner, if they don't target him for more of an offensive role (Myles Bryant also potentially back as an RFA).
Fellow rookie Jack Jones also showed starting ability in his first season, and got the chance to show what he could do with Jalen Mills' extended absence. Jones has been good in flashes, but has gotten more exposed as the season has gone on and opponents have more film to go off of. Still, as far as rookie campaigns, it's been pretty good overall.
You do worry about both Joneses being too small/slight to take on full-time roles, but there's no doubt the ability is there if they continue to progress.
On the flip side, you also have Mills signed, amazingly, for another two seasons beyond this year. If the rookies showed the potential to do more the more that was asked, hasn't Mills shown the opposite? All the preseason buzz of Mills possibly being a No. 1 CB to replace Jackson quickly dissipated, and more questions than ever exist about whether he can play good man coverage. The Patriots can release him easily in the offseason, and the cap savings could help to find which is undoubtedly the No. 1 need on this team at the moment: The Next No. 1 Corner.
Revis and Gilmore were really the only two they've had in recent years. The Patriots never thought Jackson was that type, so they didn't retain him.
If the Patriots can find the next No. 1 somewhere via trade or possibly the draft — free agency options are limited, unless you think James Bradberry (Eagles) and Marcus Peters (Ravens) are that — to join the Joneses and, possibly, Mills, the Patriots might have the ability to match up at corner (we're not even getting into safety where McCourty could retire, Adrian Phillips has seen his role lessen, and Kyle Dugger continues to show he needs to be near the line of scrimmage like Patrick Chung 2.0).
As the Patriots are set to face the weapons of the Dolphins (with Teddy Bridgewater at QB) and the Bills once again, it's time to get the future started and to see what some of them can do heading into next season. Finding out what they have at cornerback and improving it, will be one of the biggest offseason issues if this team is to truly become a contender again.
Here are the positional ratings against the Bengals:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
After a fairly blah first half (not of his own doing - it was, again, terrible execution), Mac Jones took off in the second half with Kendrick Bourne unleashed and the offense opened up a bit (unlike the Bills game). Jones started the second half with a perfect deep pass to Tyquan Thornton, who dropped it. Jones also had great throws to Bourne of 19 yards with pressure coming, 32 yards, the touchdown in the back of the end zone, and a 28-yarder to Bourne. Between Bourne being let out of the doghouse and it appears that Jones has been given more controls at the line of scrimmage to change routes (not everyone is on the same page), you got the sense of what could have been for this passing offense if all the offseason changes didn't happen. Too little, too late it appears. Jones' second half was by far his best of the season (it wasn't perfect ... two-point throw and one decision to Bourne weren't great) and showed the Patriots should just throw caution to the wind in the final two games.
Running backs (1 out of 5)
Rhamondre Stevenson fumbled twice (one lost), failed on a blitz pickup and Kevin Harris allowed the sack to the 2-yard line. Not great out of this group, and the Patriots knew they couldn't block this front so they went away from the run game. Not their type of game, and that will happen.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
This was Bourne show we've all been waiting for. He carried this group, which got a lucky touchdown from Jakobi Meyers and Marcus Jones being Marcus Jones. That was about it for the good. ... It's embarrassing what the Patriots' coaches have done with Bourne this season. ... There were six crappy routes by this group, including two that ended up getting both tight ends knocked out of the game. Just, please, run the route that's dialed up — and quickly. Meyers hop-skipped-and-jumped on 1st and 10 13:21 2Q on the Patriots' old bang-action play. Play was set up, well called by Matt Patricia, and it was there — Meyers just took forever on this route and ruined what should have been a good play, simply due to poor execution.
Offensive line (2.5 out of 5)
Thought this was an OK game for the group overall — pressure of 27.5% was an acceptable rate, and the Patriots didn't really try to run against a front seven that had the advantage over the Patriots. ... Cole Strange predictably struggled again in a matchup against a much bigger line, especially DT DJ Reader. Strange has most of his big issues in short yardage, but he also allowed a quick sack of Mac Jones. ... Conor McDermott did a solid job in this game as he took advantage of DE Sam Hubbard being injured. ... Bengals got most of their pressure from second-level blitzes that attacked the Patriots' inability (by their own decision this year) to change blocking assignments at the line of scrimmage. Some smart pressures by DC Lou Anarumo. Patriots didn't have many answers.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (4 out of 5)
The Bengals couldn't run the ball against the Patriots, and the pass rush would have been a lot more effective if the Patriots played much man coverage in the back end. ... However, this is the type of game (same against Josh Allen) that sort of makes a mockery of Belichick's insistence on having run stoppers on the defensive line. Davon Godchaux played 44 snaps in this game and didn't make one impactful play. It reinforces that those types of players aren't worth the money in today's NFL. ... Matthew Judon was terrific in this game, and the adjustment he made at the line before stripping Ja'Marr Chase was brilliant. He read the play, and wisely chose to drop into the flat. Very heady. ... Josh Uche might not have been as impactful, but he still looked good on film. He needs coverage to do his thing. ... Barmore made barely any impact in this game as well. ... Can't remember the last play Anfernee Jennings made and he played 24 snaps.
Linebackers (1.5 out of 5)
Ja'Whaun Bentley broke up a bad pass in the end zone, Jahlani Tavai ran through for a stuffed run ... and that was it from this group. Similar to the DTs, it seems like the Patriots are still trying to play a game the better offenses left behind a few years ago.
Secondary (1 out of 5)
The two interceptions were more bad plays by the Bengals (QB and WRs read the play differently) than great plays by the Patriots. Other than that, the Patriots got whipped in the back as 63 percent of their minus plays in this game were just located in the secondary. Marcus Jones led the way with six (size mismatch vs. Tee Higgins — Jones has to be a slot going forward), followed by Jonathan Jones (4) and Myles Bryant, Kyle Dugger and Devin McCourty (3 each). ... Dugger looks lost playing in space in zone coverage, similar to Chung. He contributed to one TD, and was lucky the other one was dropped. He's at his best blitzing, attacking the run and tackling in space. Feels like we're watching Chung's career all over again — with way more upside.
FIVE UP
Kendrick Bourne: It's an absolute joke it took until Week 15 for him to be showcased out of necessity with the TE injuries. Of course, this is the same outfit that played LJ Humphrey a ton early in the season.
Matthew Judon: Another dominating performance for the team's best player.
Mac Jones: Just spread it out let Mac throw it around in the last two games.
Marcus Jones (just for pick-6 and his run): Got the Patriots going, and on brink of an upset.
David Andrews: Held the fort in the middle against a tough defense.
FIVE DOWN
Shaun Wade: Not fair for the coaches to put him in that spot, but 1 play, 1 TD allowed. His TD-allowed % this year is absurd.
Tyquan Thornton: Dropped a perfect pass and had more route issues.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Two fumbles, and one cost them the game.
Cole Strange: Time to great ready to add weight and strength this offseason. Not a bad player at all. Just needs time.
Marcus Jones (every other play): Got absolutely roasted by the Bengals in this game. Tough to ask a rookie to perform in that spot.