Confidence is a double-edged sword. It is necessary, especially in basketball, to attempt and accomplish difficult tasks. It is also, however, the driving force behind trying to do too much. Just like an evening cocktail, just enough will make you feel good, and too much can lead to poor decisions.
With no Matt Patricia around on Sunday, Jayson Tatum has spent the weekend being the punching bag for fans around Boston thanks to a 6-21 shooting performance that led to 18 points in a disappointing loss to the Golden State Warriors this weekend. He earned that by trying to do too much, as I suggested after the game. This wasn’t a Tatum no-show, it was Tatum trying to be too big a part of the show.
There are two plays that highlight that the most -- one done completely wrong, one done completely right, and both starting out pretty much same way.
There are some minor difference initially (that I'll get to in a second), but the set up is essentially the same. Tatum has a defender on his left hip and he's driving right with a teammate in the corner.
In the first play, that teammate is Sam Hauser, who is defended by Steph Curry. Curry isn't going to move much, so Tatum turns the corner and sees a lane open. What he has to realize, though, is that this is a trap, and he has to be aware of the need to make a play at the last second.
Look at how Curry is positioned right now.
Now look at how he's shifted over slightly here:
You might not think there's much, but watch it in real time.
That little shift from Curry is the opening Tatum needs to flick it over to the corner for an open 3-pointer. Even if Curry recovers, Hauser can take a dribble and Tatum can relocate to the corner.
Side note: Once Luke Kornet's defender stepped up, that could have been a lob to him as well. I bet if Robert Williams were there (a) that would have been an alley-oop, or (b), the help wouldn't have come that far over and Tatum would have had an easier lane to the basket. Let's not discount that as a fix for the next time around. People will question how Williams impacts the offense and this would be a play that changes simply with him being on the floor.
Anyway, the moral of this story is that Tatum missed at least one, maybe two opportunities to get off the ball and make the right play for his teammates. It should have looked like this:
Why was this play so different? Well, for starters, the play was much more obvious.
Tatum's path to the lane was cut off early, so there was no temptation to attack and try to finish past three people. But what this highlights is Golden State's ability to make a player commit to something and then quickly take it away. To beat a team like the Warriors, a player has to be willing to make later reads and adjust rather than put his head down and simply commit to something.
In fact, one of the things I've been waiting for from Tatum is a consistent ability to manipulate the defense. Beyond just making the right read, Tatum has to start creating the right read more often.
Let's go back to the first play and take it back a step further and read the floor.
Tatum, a right handed player, is being played to drive right. (Insert Brian Windhorst "why would they do that?" meme). He needs to see right away that they're baiting him into this, so he needs to bait them back. This is where the chess moves come in. This is easy for me to do after the fact with screen shots and time to figure things out, but this is also what makes an MVP candidate. The processing of information on the fly is what makes Tatum on of the best players in the world and me a dude drawing on screen shots while eating Christmas cookies for breakfast.
Nevertheless, Tatum should instantly see (1) I'm being forced to my dominant hand, that must mean help is coming, (2) Steph is probably not going to do much more than swipe defensively (3) Malcolm Brogdon is going to pull his man away from the play, leaving Luke's defender as the main helper. From there, he shouldn't be picking up his dribble when he turns the corner. In fact, he should take one more dribble into the paint.
If he still had the live dribble, he could have drawn the help out a step and opened up a lob to Kornet
He could have also drawn Curry in with the promise of a possible steal, giving Hauser a more open look from the right corner.
The power to manipulate defenders can open up a lot for teammates. Tatum can do it, and he has, but in this situation he decided to put his head down and drive.
It's obvious Tatum was in scoring mode against the Warriors and it cost him dearly. This play was a pretty egregious example.
There are two obvious outlets here and Tatum decided to try to score from behind the backboard.
There's an easy wrap around pass to be made to Jaylen Brown, an All-NBA caliber teammate who was making shots and shoots better than 50% from the exact spot he's in. There's also Grant Williams, one of the best corner 3-point shooters in the league absolutely WIIIIIDE open for a warmup-level shot. For Tatum to choose neither of these options shows you where his head was in this game (I heard that joke you just made).
It feels like Tatum showed up with something to prove. Maybe he felt the need to show everyone he is a legitimate MVP candidate, but he'll rarely send a message like that by playing the way he did.
Like the play to Brogdon showed, the strength in Tatum's abilities is making the right reads and the right plays and then attacking the defense that has been broken down. He spent too much of Saturday night's game trying to do it all, which is what cost him in the Finals. The good news is that this little reminder cost him nothing but some shots to his pride.
If Tatum plays the right way, he could win the MVP and a championship. If he tries to do this more often than not, then he'll have to settle for some third or fourth place votes and another summer full of what ifs.