Well, this would be interesting.
First of all, the Patriots should be the AFC's final wild-card team a week from today, if they can beat a beat-up Cardinals team that will be coming off a bye.
But that could be short-lived, because of an old friend.
Three weeks ago, after falling 25-20 to the Colts in Jeff Saturday's first game as an NFL coach, Josh McDaniels and the Raiders were the butt of a lot of jokes as they stood at 2-6.
Now, after the Raiders won their third-straight game Sunday, 27-20 over the Chargers, it's not a far-off scenario that the Raiders could pass the Patriots in the AFC wild-card standings with a win in their Dec. 18 matchup, which has now been flexed out of Sunday Night Football and will be played at 4:05 p.m.
Even weirder: the Raiders could jump into the final wild-card spot by beating New England.
Both teams have tough closing schedules, so it might be moot. But, for one week, it would certainly be an interesting storyline.
If the Patriots defeat the Cardinals — no given with the state of the team after a second-straight loss to the Bills — they'll be 7-6. The Raiders can move to 6-7 on Thursday night against the Rams, which has lost six-straight games and is starting John Wolford at quarterback.
A Las Vegas victory would make both teams 7-7, and the Raiders would have the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If the Jets fall at Buffalo and then get upset at home by the Lions, who have won 4 of 5 with the only loss by three to the Bills, the Raiders would be the AFC's seventh seed — the final wild-card spot.
Now, things get interesting after that for all the teams involved in the race for the final AFC playoff spot (Jets, Patriots, Chargers, Raiders). A look at that, and other thoughts from watching much of Week 13:
No. 7 Jets, 7-5 (4th-hardest schedule by DVOA)
at Bills
vs. Lions
vs. Jaguars
at Seahawks
at Dolphins
With the Lions and Jaguars on the schedule, the Jets have the easiest path to 10 wins, the mark that should secure a playoff berth. But finding that third victory (and Detroit is no given now that they're playing better defense) at Buffalo, Seattle or Miami, may prove elusive.
No. 8 Patriots, 6-6 (6th-hardest)
at Cardinals
at Raiders
vs. Bengals
vs. Dolphins
at Bills
You could make the argument that it's more likely the Patriots lose their final five games than it is finding four wins to get to 10. New England's best chance will likely be if multiple teams are tied at 9-8.
No. 9 Chargers, 6-6 (29th-hardest)
vs. Dolphins
vs. Titans
at Colts
vs. Rams
at Broncos
LA has all sorts of offensive line issues at this point, and they are basically relying totally on Justin Herbert carrying them to victory. They close with three weak games, so a split of the next two games could keep them in the conversation. But this team really isn't good. They could lose to any team at any time.
No. 10 Raiders, 5-7 (8th-hardest)
at Rams
vs. Patriots
at Steelers
vs. 49ers
vs. Chiefs
They have to run the table, which they did last year, but it's difficult to see. Their defense has played better and Chandler Jones finally decided to start his season on Sunday with three sacks, but a very weak defense will make every game a tractor pull. All but one game has been decided by 7 points or less. That being said, Vegas just got their best cornerback back on Sunday (Nate Hobbs) and, TE Darren Waller and WR Hunter Renfrow can return to practice this week. And the schedule is starting to fall its way. The 49ers just lost QB Jimmy Garoppolo for the season, and the Chiefs might not have anything to play for in the final week and Andy Reid always sits his starters, if he can. Still, Vegas can lose any game, including this Thursday.
Other thoughts on Week 13:
- Look out for the Bengals, who visit Gillette on Dec. 24th. Now that Ja'Marr Chase is back, this offense is a handful even with a weak offensive line that has improved (you go, Teddy Karras). Joe Burrow is just flat-out ballsy. To defeat Mahomes and the Chiefs three-straight times ... it's like watching Tom Brady against the Colts and Peyton Manning. And that defense is tough, as is RB Samaje Perine.
- The Chiefs are a really good team, but they seem like they are a dependable receiver short. Same goes with the Bills. If you limit Stefon Diggs (ie NOT what the Patriots did) and play soft, they aren't all that explosive. Josh Allen is great like Mahomes, but they do have their limits.
- The 49ers' defense is incredible, which makes the Garoppolo injury even more painful. You could make the argument the 49ers were rounding into the best team in the league. The Faithful turn their lonely eyes to ... Brock Purdy? Panthers just released Baker Mayfield. Wonder if the Seahawks claim him to block San Fran signing him.
- It's embarrassing for the Patriots that NBC would rather take Giants-Commanders in that window rather than Patriots-Raiders.
- Is it just me, or do Garoppolo and Lamar Jackson both sustain debilitating for their team's chances every season? They're like bicoastal twins. Good teams a healthy QB short.
- Some nice karma there with Deshaun Watson absolutely stinking up the joint in his return against the Texans.
- The Vikings have a horseshoe up their rear and it's bound to fall out, probably in the first round. That team is not that good. Justin Jefferson is.
- Mike White showed me more in that loss to the Vikings. Reminds me more of a younger Joe Flacco than Bailey Zappe.
- I don't think Tua Tagovailoa and the Dolphins got exposed by the 49ers' defense, they do that to a lot of people — it's an all-time defense, truly. But it does show that you can't scheme everything up. At some point, it's about the Jimmys and the Joes, not the X's and O's. Dolphins are really limited on the offensive line. It did show the value of pass protection for a non-elite QB. Same goes for Mac Jones.
Belichick leaves door open to offseason offensive changes?
Bill Belichick said on WEEI today that drastically changing the offensive system would be virtually impossible.
"I think we need to do what we're doing better. I don't think at this point making a lot of dramatic changes; it's too hard to do that," Belichick said on "The Greg Hill Show." "If we can just do, consistently, what we're doing, I think we'll be all right. We just haven't been able to have enough consistency. And that's hurt us. It's not one thing. One time it's one thing. Next time it's something else. We just have to play and coach more consistently."
With that answer, Belichick did leave the door open for changes after the season. If he really liked what he saw, Belichick would have quickly dismissed the question.
Of course, much will depend on how the Patriots finish the season. If the offense plays better and the Patriots make the playoffs, it would not be a surprise to see them stay the course. I'm not joking.