The Celtics offense through 25% of the season is on a historic pace. If things continue rolling the way they do, this Celtics team could go down as one of the best offenses in NBA history.
There are a few factors at play here. Scoring, in general, is up, partly because the “take foul” has gone away. That little wrinkle -- losing the ability to foul someone to stop a fast break with basically no consequence -- has created more scoring opportunities. It has also created a mentality in the league that running will be rewarded, so teams are putting more points on the board.
But the Celtics are also playing a much better brand of offensive basketball thanks to improvements from all phases of the organization. Under the coaching of Joe Mazzulla, they are more creative on offense, which leads to better scoring chances. Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown have demonstrated strong internal growth and trust in their teammates, while players like Al Horford, Marcus Smart, and Grant Williams have settled into their roles and generally excelled. And the front office has supported that by adding shooters and ball-handlers around them to make it very difficult for defenses.
The Celtics are currently averaging 123.3 points per game, an 11.5-point increase over last year’s 111.8 ppg. The simplest way to explain it is that they're making their 3-pointers at a higher rate. They're averaging just about four more attempts per game this season, but they're making 3.5 more per game. In essence, they're making almost every additional 3-pointer they’ve added to their totals.
Beyond that, the additional 3-pointers are almost all wide open shots. According to NBA tracking data, Boston’s “wide open” 3-point looks have gone from 16.5 per game last year to 19.2 per game this year. In fact, the combination of open looks from 3 (with a defender 4-6 feet away) and wide open looks (6+ feet away) accounts for 3.5% more of the overall offense.
Boston is generating these looks by moving the ball more. Over the course of the past four seasons, the number of assisted baskets from the 2019-20 team to this one has jumped from 55.7% to 63.5% (last season was 60.9%). But even though the assist percentage increased 2.6%, their effective field goal percentage jumped by 5% (by contrast, the assist percentage jumped 4.3% the year before and the efg% stayed the same).
The Celtics are putting up all of these numbers because their style of play has generated great looks all over the floor. Actually, this 3-pointer kind of captures most of what’s at play with this year’s team.
Let’s go down all the elements from top to bottom.
- Smart has the ball in his hands: Smart as the point guard has paid great dividends for Boston. His 7.5 assists per game are a career high, and he’s also averaging an additional 1.5 potential assists per game.
- Mazzulla’s creativity: This isn’t the most creative of Mazzulla’s sets, but also there is some trickery between Williams and Tatum. The way it looks like a screen for Tatum to come up and get the ball but ends up being a screen for Williams to get a look is deceiving to the defense.
- Tatum as a screener: Tatum has talked about adding elements to his game, and being the screener in Boston’s offense has been a part of that. It’s not the greatest screen in the world, but it works.
- Williams attacking closeouts: His ability to put the ball on the floor breaks down defenses. He’s able to get past the initial contest, and from there he has a chance to make the right play.
- White’s hot shooting: He’s up to 45.3% from deep. He relocates to a good spot in the corner and gets the pass for a wide-open look, which he buries.
Here’s another one:
- Smart in the post: I’ve already gone into this at length, but Smart in the post has been exceptionally effective for the Celtics.
- More misdirection: Williams and White screening for Tatum? Nope … the play is for White.
- Tatum screening again: How does White get wide open again? Tatum is there to keep Hornets defenders away from White.
And yet another:
- Brogdon attacks: Having another ball handler on the floor has made the Celtics very difficult to defend. There's always someone with the ball in his hand that can break down a defense.
- Multiple attacks: The Celtics are at their absolute best when they hit the paint more than once. Add White to the list of ball handlers who can break down a defense. The Celtics have Smart, Brogdon, and White on the floor so every drive, kick, and secondary attack just pulls more defenders out of position.
- Inflated shooting numbers: Smart is up to 35% on the season. White, Horford, and Brogdon are all shooting above their normal averages. Is there a concern that there will be a regression? Maybe, but they are getting these wide-open looks on a regular basis. No one was defending Smart at all.
The Celtics are a versatile group of guys who can do a lot, but no one is trying to do too much. They have developed incredible trust with one another, and everyone understands how everything is supposed to work. There might be a regression in the shooting from some of these guys, but also keep in mind that Tatum and Brown are currently shooting below league average (35.6%) from 3. Smart is hovering right around league average (35%), and every other rotation guy is shooting better than 40%. Even if a few of those guys dip, Tatum and Brown can make up a lot of the difference just by sheer volume.
And this is the last piece of why this offense is so good. Tatum is shooting 34.7% from deep and he’s averaging about 31 points per game. That's because he’s getting to the rim more effectively than ever, which gets him to the line a few more times a game. He’s picking up a couple of extra points per game from the foul line, and his shooting percentage at the rim is 8% better than last season on similar attempts.
Meanwhile, Brown is feasting in the mid-range. His shooting percentage there is up exactly 10% to 55.9%. He’s using the threat of that to get to the rim a couple more times per game and get to the line a little bit more.
Boston’s two stars have increased their scoring by increasing their efficiency. Some of that is from isolating less, some of it is from moving more, and some of it is simply making better decisions.
This is the offense Brad Stevens always wanted in Boston. This is how he’s always wanted this team to play. Now that he’s in charge, he’s been able to craft the team more to his own vision, and what he’s helped construct is a cohesive unit with a bunch of guys who can do a bit of everything, but who will do anything asked of them. The result is a buffet of points where everybody is eating.
It’s early, and we know things will change with Robert Williams jumps on the train, but that should only make things even more fun.