Not a good week for the Patriots and their playoff positioning, as every AFC East team won, as did their wild-card competition, the Bengals and Chargers, with the Colts playing tonight.
That left the Patriots in the eighth slot in the AFC:
The loss to the Vikings definitely hurt because it left them very little margin for error, but it wasn't catastrophic because it leaves them, still, with a 5-2 conference record (tied with the Chiefs and Bills) with the teeth of their AFC schedule coming up. The conference record is very important when it comes to tiebreakers.
Patriots have that going for them, and also the two-game sweep of the Jets if they have the same record.
Will they be in that position? We'll know a lot more after this week because there are some big swing matchups with the AFC contenders this week:
Bills at Patriots (Thursday)
Chargers at Raiders
Chiefs at Bengals
Jets at Vikings
If the Patriots lose, and the Chargers (root for Josh McDaniels), Bengals and Jets all win — in the realm of possibility — then the AFC standings would look like this a week from today:
The Patriots would be a full two games out of the final spot with five games to play.
Not great, but still not a death sentence.
A look at the contenders, their roads and the biggest swing game for each team (hint ... Bengals at Patriots is HUGE). We're giving the Chiefs, Bills, Titans, Ravens and Dolphins playoff spots. That leaves two spots, and it comes down to four teams in all likelihood (Colts could possibly make a run but it's a longshot):
PATRIOTS (6-5, 5-2 AFC)
Overall DVOA: 11th
Future schedule rank: 4th-most difficult
vs. Bills
at Cardinals
at Raiders
vs. Bengals
vs. Dolphins
at Bills
SWING GAME: vs. Bengals, who have won 5 of 6 and 7 of 9.
Every game is going to have its challenges down the stretch — none are gimmes with the offenses on the other side — but let's give them Cardinals, Raiders and they finally find a way to beat Tua. Losses to the Bills. That's being generous at 9 wins. A win over the Bengals would give them 10 and likely clinch a playoff spot thanks to the conference record.
It's looking like 10 wins are going to be needed to get into the AFC playoffs — and that might not be enough for some teams (this is where conference record helps the Pats). Even if you give the Patriots the two West Coast games, they need two more wins. Bengals, who will soon be getting WR Ja'Marr Chase back, and Dolphins seem most likely. Man, that's a tough road.
BENGALS (7-4, 4-3)
Overall DVOA: 7th
Future schedule rank: 1st
vs. Chiefs
vs. Browns
at Tampa Bay
at Patriots
vs. Bills
vs. Ravens
SWING GAME: ... Man, really any of them.
If you thought the Patriots had a tough road ahead, the Bengals have murderer's row — and they beat the Titans on the road this weekend. Even their "easiest" games are tough because the Browns get Deshaun Watson back this week, and the Patriots are on the road ... and we're giving that game to the Patriots.
The Bengals, who just played a division leader, play four more teams that lead or are tied for their division lead. The saving grace (besides Chase returning) is three games are at home, and beating the Chiefs this weekend would give them room for error, especially at Gillette.
NEW YORK JETS (7-4, 5-4)
Overall DVOA: 9th
Future schedule rank: 5th
at Vikings
at Bills
vs. Lions
vs. Jaguars
at Seahawks
at Dolphins
SWING GAME: Dolphins, if the Jets don't sweep the Bills.
Two tough road games to finish and only two home games the rest of the way, the Jets are in decent shape. However, because the Patriots swept them in the regular season, the Jets have to finish one game in front of the Patriots. If there is a multi-team tie at, say, 10-7, the Jets will be eliminated off the bat due to the intra-division sweep.
Wouldn't be surprised if the Jets beat the Vikings, and wins over the Lions and Jaguars gets them to 10 wins. If the Patriots are at 10 wins heading into the final week, the Jets might have to win at Miami.
LOS ANGELES CHARGERS (6-5, 4-3)
Overall DVOA: 24th
Future schedule rank: 31st
at Raiders
vs. Dolphins
vs. Titans
at Colts
vs. Rams
at Broncos
SWING GAME: Dolphins, if the Chargers beat the Raiders (I wouldn't be too sure about that).
Let's give the Chargers, who are completely unpredictable, wins over the Raiders, Colts, Rams and Broncos. They could also lose half those games, but for argument's sake, that's 10 wins. The Dolphins game would be the difference between being out, and in. We should know quickly on the Chargers: if they lose to McDaniels this weekend in Vegas, that road is tough to 10 wins.
Added note ... that Chargers game could become vital to the Dolphins. If they lose that game, they could drop 3 straight to the 49ers, Chargers and Bills to be 8-6. All of a sudden the Patriots-Dolphins game because enormous as well.