By some accounts, the Red Sox don't plan on bidding for any top-end free agents this offseason.
The Boston Globe recently reported that the Sox are determined to stay out of the market for top starting pitchers, a group that includes Justin Verlander, Jacob deGrom and Carlos Rodon.
It's unclear what, exactly, led to that decision. Are the Red Sox fearful of the health and durability of free-agent pitchers who are 30 and older? (All three qualify on that count, with Verlander about to turn 40). Are they avoided because two (deGrom and Rodon) have compensation attached to them, costing the team multiple draft picks and international pool money? Or, do the Red Sox simply not want to spend the kind of money the three are likely to command, with Verlander and deGrom certain to have AAVs of $30 million-plus, and Rodon set to get somewhere between $25-$30 million annually?
In the end, the rationale doesn't matter. The Red Sox would appear out on the top end of the pitching market.
The same could well be true for other positional needs. The Sox need outfield help, a DH and perhaps a catching upgrade, too. (The sheer volume of free agent relievers is likely to result in more modest prices in that area, and the Sox have already dabbled in that class by signing Joely Rodriguez).
But if the Red Sox are intent on improving and becoming contenders for 2023 and beyond, they'll need upgrades from somewhere. Yes, some internal help is available, but the Sox have a lot of ground to make up, having finished a full eight games behind the third wild-card team.
It stands to reason that the Sox will be more active on the trade front than the free-agent marketplace. And while they have some pieces on the 26-man major league roster that they could move (Alex Verdugo and Nick Pivetta come immediately to mind as potential trade candidates), it's far more likely the Sox would deal from their inventory of prospects to make deals happen.
It goes without saying that the organization regards some of its top prospects as untouchable. For the Red Sox, I would classify Triston Casas, Marcelo Mayer and Brayan Bello as absolute, no-way, no-how candidates. Casas and Bello are penciled in as key contributors next season while Mayer, taken with the No. 4 overall pick in 2021, is the highest draft selection by the Sox in more than half a century. Accordingly, it's hard to imagine him being dealt in any sort of trade.
Below those Top 3, I would add a couple more: Miguel Bleis and Bryan Mata. The former has the potential to emerge as a five-tool outfielder, with upside few in the organization can match. The latter, meanwhile, is likely the second-best starter in the system after Bello, and given the team's inability to develop homegrown starters over the last dozen or so years, the Sox could ill afford to trade away either of the two who could change that that long-running narrative.
Everybody else? Make them an offer.
Here are some candidates to be dealt, classified by group:
COULD USE A CHANGE OF SCENERY: Bobby Dalbec, Jarren Duran.
Given their major league service time and games played in the big leagues, neither is a prospect. Moreover, Dalbec will be 27 (!!) next June and Duran is already 26. It's also increasingly evident that the two have little -- if any -- future with the Sox.
Dalbec is blocked at first by Casas, and at third -- for now, at least -- by Rafael Devers. In theory, he could make the 2023 team as a backup corner infielder and compete for some DH at-bats. But it would be difficult for the Red Sox to count on him for much. Though he's shown incredible power on occasion -- he's hit 45 homers over the equivalent of a season and a third -- he lacks the consistency that would enable him to be an everyday contributor.
That said, his power and decent versatility could intrigue a team.
It's much the same for Duran, as long as you substitute "elite speed'' for "incredible power.'' Duran is one of the fastest players in the game, and at a time when new rules (bigger bases, limited pickoff throws) will encourage more stolen bases, his skill set will never be of more value. But like Dalbec, there are serious flaws to the rest of Duran's game. He hasn't shown the ability to get on base with any regularity where he could put his speed to use. And defensively, he remains very much a work in progress. Some four years after switching to the outfield, he can still take ill-advised routes to balls.
Understand: neither Dalbec nor Duran is going to fetch a big return. or The Red Sox aren't about to land a mid-rotation starter or a productive corner outfielder for one or the other. Any team taking either on would be buying a lottery ticket, hoping that a new environment and a fresh start would result in more consistency and development.
But perhaps as add-ons to other packages, they could bring a decent piece to help the Sox.
MIDDLE INFIELD HELP: Nick Yorke, Matthew Lugo, Christian Koss, Cutter Coffey.
Yorke is the big name here as a bat-first second baseman who may eventually move to the outfield or a corner infield spot. After struggling in the first half of 2022 -- in part because of nagging injuries --- he rebounded in the second half and had a strong Arizona Fall League showing (.950 OPS). Yorke is one of the two highest value prospects on this list, with the potential to be the centerpiece of a significant swap. If the Sox are going to be in on a No.2 starter or a catcher, Yorke would almost certainly be part of it.
Lugo has been overshadowed by some of the other shortstops the Sox have taken in recent drafts, but he has some real value. He hit 18 homers in High A while slugging .500 and is ranked as an average defender. At 21, he's pretty much filled out, and although he doesn't have a big frame, he's athletic enough. There's some projection left here, but for a bat-first middle infielder, he has value.
Koss has been a sleeper who might have a ceiling of a solid utility player, with the ability to move around and contribute some pop off the bench (he had 17 homers at Double-A Portland).
Finally, there's Coffey, a second-round pick from last summer. Again, the backlog of shortstop candidates (Mayer, recent first-rounder Mikey Romero) could make him expendable at a position where teams are always looking for depth.
VERSATILE AND VALUABLE: Ceddanne Rafaela, Eddinson Paulino, Enmanuel Valdez
Rafaela is, depending on the list you're using, either the highest-ranked or second-highest-ranked player on this list. The Red Sox have him pegged as a center fielder where he boasts plus-plus range, but he could also be a plus defender at short. He's matured tremendously as a hitter over the last two years and could offer both power and speed. It would take quite a bit for the Sox to trade him, but if they're intent on making a blockbuster deal for a front-end starter or No. 1 catcher, Rafaela would almost certainly have to be included.
Paulino was an international signing from the Dominican Republic. He's moved all over the infield and has even begun playing some outfield. He may not have any single outstanding skill, but the ability to move around and put the ball in play consistently has never been more in demand.
Valdez, acquired in the deal that sent Christian Vazquez to Houston at the deadline, is an intriguing offensive weapon, who has played some second, some third and outfield. Again, the versatility is the strong selling point, but he adds some offensive potential (28 homers, 35 doubles across two levels last season). He's, at best, adequate defensively, but the ability to mash gives him value.
PITCHERS: Thaddeus Ward, Brandon Walter, Chris Murphy, Wikelman Gonzalez
Having made the two best starters (Bello and Mata) in the organization off-limits, the Sox don't have a ton to offer in the pitching department. None of these prospects, with the possible exception of Gonzalez (the youngest, with the potential to further develop), can be viewed as even surefire major league starters. But any one could contribute to a big league staff, in roles from back-end starter to long or middle relief.
Ward wasn't added to the 40-man roster and is a candidate to be plucked in the Rule V draft, so it might behoove the Sox to deal him before then and get something in return.
Walter has made huge strides in recent years, but was hampered by some arm issues in the second half, which could limit his value. Another lefty, Murphy, is highly intelligent and could develop into a back-end starter or middle reliever.
Gonzalez is, as mentioned, the toughest to project, because of his age (20) and the fact that he's only pitched four games above Low A. But with a swing-and-miss fastball and the rest of his repertoire (change, curve) considered above-average pitches, the potential is there for him to evolve into a mid-rotation statrer.
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By now, It's become a winter tradition: Hunter Renfroe changing teams.
Renfroe was shipped from the Milwaukee Brewers to the Los Angeles Angels last week, meaning he'll spend 2023 with his fifth team in the last five seasons. In that time, Renfroe has gone from San Diego to Tampa to Boston to Milwaukee to Anaheim.
What gives?
Each move, of course, is independent of the other. Teams have had different reasons for moving on from him (as Tampa did when it non-tendered him, making him a free agent when the Sox signed him).
Renfroe would seem to be a good -- though hardly great -- player who has, through no fault of his own, become a bit too expensive for his own good at times. The Red Sox trade with the Brewers a year ago wasn't solely about salary, though the Sox had the feeling that Renfroe was becoming expensive relative to his value as he neared his second year of salary arbitration. More than anything, the Sox wished to upgrade defensively while also restocking their prospect inventory.
(To date, that trade has been a dud for the Sox. Jackie Bradley Jr. struggled for four months before being released. In the minors, David Hamilton and Alex Binelas have shown flashes, with Hamilton swiping an astounding 70 bases at Double-A Portland and Binelas exhibiting plus power at High A before stalling out in his half-season at Portland. Neither is definitively a major leaguer at this point, though that could still change).
Now, the Brewers, who are cutting payroll some, apparently felt the same way.
“Obviously, considering the other four times, I kind of know what happens during this time of the year,” Renfroe said.
For the record, the Brewers didn't get a whole lot in return, which makes sense since Renfroe has only one year of control remaining. The Angels shipped three pitching prospects to the Brewers, but given that the Angels are in desperate need of arms, none of the prospects moved is considered elite.
And just think: with free agency a year away and the Angels currently on the block, there stands a very good chance that Renfroe will be on the move again next offseason, likely making it six teams in six years. At the very least, the next time, he'll have a say in where he goes next.