Happy Thanksgiving everyone! We're all thankful at BSJ for your continued support. Have a great day and see you later!
_______________________
In a lot of ways, the Vikings are the Patriots' mirror.
Both teams feature pocket quarterbacks, Kirk Cousins and Mac Jones, who are best when kept in rhythm and clean. They've both been pressured a lot, and that hasn't gone well.
Both have really good dual-threat running backs, Dalvin Cook and Rhamondre Stevenson, who are big enough to run over people, quick enough to burst by them, and will make plays in the passing game.
The Vikings and Patriots have good enough weapons to put up points — OK, WR Justin Jefferson is another class by himself — with deep receiving corps and two talented tight ends each.
Both have struggling lines battling through injuries. The Vikings will be without LT Christian Darrisaw. The Patriots are likely to be without center David Andrews and sixth OL Isaiah Wynn (and RT Yodny Cajuste popped up on the injury report late in the week with a calf injury). Both teams have had big-time blocking issues — run and pass — but the Vikings had done better making it work with former NFL quarterback and veteran offensive coach Kevin O'Connell (Vikings 19th in offensive DVOA). Matt Patricia, a veteran defensive coordinator, is still trying to figure out a way forward for Jones and the Patriots on offense (26th).
But when you flip to the other side of the field (and special teams ... Vikings are dreadful), the Patriots have a distinct advantage and that's one of the big reasons why they stand a good chance to win this game against NFC North-leading Vikings (8-2) — if their offensive line wins their battle.
The Patriots are No. 1 in defensive DVOA (1st vs. pass, 12th vs. run). The Vikings are 18th (19th/13th).
But the pass rushes are similar. Minnesota has 27 sacks and 203 total pressures. New England has 38 and 188. Judon (13.5 sacks, 47 pressures) and Deatrich Wise (7, 38) have been impressive. But so too have Za'Darius Smith (9, 56) and Danielle Hunter (6, 40) for the Vikings.
The difference has been the Patriots' run defense, coverage in the secondary and the fact that they've played the 10th-hardest defensive schedule while the Vikings are 5th.
A closer look at the matchup:
OFFENSE
Vikings DVOA: 19th overall, 23rd pass, 13th rush
Patriots D: 1st overall, 1st pass, 12th rush
DEFENSE
Vikings DVOA: 18th overall, 19th pass, 13th rush
Patriots off: 26th overall, 26th pass, 24th rush
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA
Patriots 5th, Vikings 26th
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
Any Patriots edge defender vs. Vikings LT Blake Brendel: Imagine the worst LT you've seen so far this year, and multiply it by about 10. That's where the slow-footed Brandel resides. He's awful. Expect Josh Uche to get about 5 sacks in this game in a part-time role ... no, it won't mean anything.
CB Jonathan Jones vs. WR Adam Thielen: I expect the Patriots to match Jefferson with Jalen Mills and a safety over the top, leaving Jones on Thielen and Myles Bryant on slot KJ Osborn. The Patriots should win both of those matchups, but I expect Jones to shutdown Thielen. He's a much better athlete.
LG Cole Strange vs. Vikings interior: Looks like the Vikings won't have standout DT Dalvin Tomlinson again so Strange (and James Ferentz) will be breathing a big sigh of relief that he's past the murder's row of DTs that just waxed him over the past four weeks. Harrison Phillips will make a few plays but James Lynch, Jonathan Bullard and Ross Blackcock are not intimidating. Should be a get-right game for the Patriots' rookie.
Patriots' man coverage vs. Kirk Cousins: Vikings are one of the worst passing games in the league against man coverage because Cousins is terrible under pressure and the Vikings protect worse than the Patriots. Patriots major in good man coverage.
K Nick Folk vs. K Greg Joseph: Joseph is an awful kicker. He's missed four extra points and five field goals — all beyond 50 yards. If the Patriots can make the Vikings settle for long field goals, it will be to their advantage.
MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES
S Kyle Dugger vs. TE TJ Hockenson: I don't know if this will really be a disadvantage but I'm putting this here because it's undecided in my eyes and if the Vikings are to do much offensively, it might have to come from the former Lion. Dugger runs hot and cold against tight ends.
RT Yodny Cajuste vs. DE Danielle Hunter: I think Trent Brown will play well against a power player like Za'Darius Smith, but I'm worried about Cajuste against the speedy Hunter. If Cajuste can't go or gets hurt and the newly signed Connor McDermott has to play ... look out.
Patriots LBs vs. RB Dalvin Cook: Patriots should have Cook taken care of in passing situations (I would go with Jabrill Peppers but it could be Mack Wilson and/or Raekwon McMillan), but if I'm the Vikings, I'm trying to get Cook 1-on-1 against Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavani early and in space.
WR Justin Jefferson doing his thing: The Patriots will limit Jefferson but he's so good that he'll make at least a few plays, and that could be enough to swing a tight game.
GAME PLAN POINTS
1. Pressure Kirk Cousins: Shouldn't be an issue against this line, which is probably the worst the Patriots have seen. If he's under enough constant pressure, Cousins will just start throwing the ball up to anybody.
2. Run the game through 38 and 85: Another matchup where you'd love to have a fullback to unleash the power running attack, but the Patriots will have to settle for their TEs in the backfield again. Stay under center more. The offense is better that way.
3. Protect Mac Jones: Give him a chance to make some plays down the field by actually protecting him.
4. Limit the negative plays: It's time for the grenade offense (negative play explosions going off every 2-3 plays) to be over with. Sustain blocks, call good plays, protect more than 2.8 seconds and stop with the damn penalties. In other words, look like a professional offense for once.
5. No big Jefferson/Cook plays: Both are so good that it's impossible to eliminate them, so the goal should be a handful of explosive plays combined and no touchdowns.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Vikings -3. O/U: 42.
Bedard's record: 9-1 straight up, 8-2 vs. spread
The punt return, instead of a FG in overtime, caused me my second loss vs the spread, so I'm a little bitter (idiots not punting out of bounds ... Jetsian). I really love the Patriots in this matchup. I don't see how Cousins has time to do anything. If they have a good day offensively, then it will be because of Kevin O'Connell (Matt Patricia, take some notes). But the Patriots should be the better prepared team on this short week. They just had a bye and then played a recent team out of it, so the Patriots likely spent most of the bye gameplanning for this game, not the Jets. The Vikings' bye was back in Week 7 and they've played out-of-division teams since (Cardinals, Commanders, Bills, Cowboys). That's a lot of extra work for the coaching staff. And the Vikings aren't that good. Even in their past three games they've been outplayed but have gone 2-1. I think it would be disappointing if the Patriots didn't win this game, even comfortably.
Bedard's Pick: Patriots 20, Vikings 18.