Zach Wilson's physical tools are, at times, breathtaking.
He has a rocket arm that allows him to throw to any part of the field off any foot. Wilson has terrific athletic ability in terms of footwork, speed, balance and innate playmaking skills.
They didn't call him, coming out of BYU, the Mormon Mahomes for nothing. They have very similar skillsets — they can throw from any arm angle with accuracy, and are elusive in pocket — and are even the same size.
But there's a fine line between becoming the next Patrick Mahomes ... or Jeff George, Jay Cutler — physically gifted quarterbacks who were never able to put it together.
You need to have an emotional maturity to be a really good NFL quarterback, and Wilson has yet to show that. He already cost the Jets a victory against the Patriots last month with three mindless interceptions. Despite being 5-1 as a starter this season, he's still just 8-11 as the Jets' starter. His 56.2 career completion percentage was average ... for 2002. He has 16 interceptions against 13 touchdowns.
Sunday's matchup between the Jets and Patriots is huge for both teams — especially the Patriots, who are mired in last place in the AFC East.
The Patriots have a 40 percent chance to make the playoffs today at 538. A win would boost the odds to 53 percent. A loss would drop them to 18 percent. The Jets are at 59 percent today. A win boosts them to 82 percent. A loss put them at 44 percent.
Wilson has been at his worst against the Patriots with an 0-3 record, a 53.6 completion percentage, 2 TDs, 7 INTs, 7 sacks and a 50.5 passer rating. A win by Wilson and the Jets would further legitimize them as a playoff contender, even with their win over the Bills. New York has lost 13 straight to the Patriots. The Bills win was nice, but until they can defeat Bill Belichick and the Patriots, it's hard to take them totally seriously.
"[Robert] Saleh has been saying it all week — you don’t have to make a play, you have to make your play," Jets offensive coordinator Mike LaFleur told reporters this week. "Your play as a left guard is going to be much different than the receivers, but that’s your play to make on that particular play.
“We never want to be reckless, we never want to be careless at all for 60 minutes, for 17 games, mistakes are going to happen. But our mindset is we gotta go attack, but attack doesn’t mean we are going to throw the ball 70 times, it means attack within your fundamentals, be aggressive, be confident in what you’re doing."
The Jets are ready to do that as a team, and they largely dominated the first matchup against the Patriots. But Wilson let them down. Is Wilson ready to do his part?
On film, there are arguments for and against, and we'll illustrate that on the coaches film.
But there's also evidence Wilson will be the same player come kickoff on Sunday.
Just look at some of his answers to the media this week.
“I thought they were good emotions,” he told reporters Thursday of his feelings after the Patriots' loss. “I mean, I was frustrated. I still believe that nobody outside of this building knows what they’re talking about.”
When one reporter replied, "I do," Wilson jokingly said: “You do? Why’d you turn down a coaching position?”
Wilson was smiling and somewhat joking with his responses, but it did show his sensitivity and thin skin-ness, which isn't exactly a great thing in the sports media capital of the world.
“I don’t necessarily feel like I have to prove anything, like, ‘Last game didn’t go great, and I have to do something different this time,'” he said.
And it's not really great to hear heading into the Patriots game. It would be nice to hear him, at least publicly, a little more humble with a nod to his past shortcomings. This is part of the reason why Wilson isn't close to Mahomes at this time. Mahomes has all the confidence in the world, but he always strikes the right tone for himself and the team. Wilson, at this point, is way more Cutler than Mahomes ... and we know how that usually works out.
"Yeah, it was frustrating for me,” Wilson told reporters. “My mindset this week is one play at a time, how can I make the best decision on the play, not having to make a big play and trusting in my guys.”
But at the end of the day, the play on the field is the only thing that matters. Wilson came up woefully short the first time around against the Patriots. His play on Sunday will determine whether the Jets are contenders or pretenders.
VIDEO BREAKDOWN OF THE "NEW" ZACH WILSON
PREVIOUS JETS DEFENSIVE FILM
MAC JONES VS. JETS
GAMEPLAN POINTS
The Patriots know what to do against Wilson and the Jets — although expected stopping excellent rookie WR Garrett Wilson to be much bigger priority in this one — so I don't have any worries about them doing their part on defense. This game will all come down to Belichick, Matt Patricia and Mac Jones.
1. Make it easier for Mac Jones.
Remember, this was the game where I actually had Jones graded out well compared to conventional wisdom. Why? Because the Patriots made this game way too hard on the QB — like Tom Brady in some of his old matchups with Rex Ryan's Jets. The Patriots' priority has to be 1) Protect Jones better. He faced 48.9 percent pressure in the first matchup, the highest ever for a game he has started and finished. To do that, a good coordinator would spin the dial with techniques — max protect on one play, chip on another, screen on another, quick pass on another. If the Patriots want to go down the field, they must keep blockers in. 2) Patriots threw Jones to the wolves because they knew they needed more receivers out against coverage. They need to split the baby better there this time. No QB, especially a 2nd-year guy, is going to get in shotgun and pick part this defense. Ain't happening. And that's no indicted on Jones, even though people want to do that.
2. Play a CFL game.
Patriots converted a lot of third downs in this game, but too many were in long yardage. After they didn't convert on the opening possession, Jones and the Patriots converted 6 of the next 8:
- 3rd and 10 - Dime throw to Meyers
- 3rd and 11 - Nice design and call by Patricia
- 3rd and 5 - Jones good scramble
- 3rd and 8 - Stevenson on James White arrow route
- 3rd and 5 - Jones good scramble
- 3rd and 7 - Good Patricia call/Jonnu Smith YAC
That's not going to happen this time around. One way to combat that is to strive for a CFL offense — two downs to make a first down. Basically, you're trying to avoid getting to third down. To do that, the Patriots have to eliminate the negative or no-yard plays, or penalties. They have yet to show that ability. I would also like to see the Patriots use more no-huddle, which they used for their only TD drive (Bills scored that way as well). It doesn't let the Jets sub on the defensive line, and doesn't let them set up coverage disguises. Wouldn't mind seeing Jonnu Smith in the old Aaron Hernandez no-huddle role as a wrinkle. At least he'd be doing something.
3. Get Mac Jones under center with inside running and playaction.
Not sure if this is for this game in particular, but Jones is at his best when he's under center. The Patriots are at their best when they are spinning the dial on running between the tackles, and with David Andrews back that should be something they can do against this vaunted Jets line that is without NT Sheldon Rankins this time. Pound the ball there, and then run playaction. That's when they are a good offense.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Patriots -3.5. O/U: 38.
Bedard's record: 8-1 straight up, 8-1 vs. spread
I'm scared to death of this game for the Patriots. They have not been good coming out of the bye in recent years — they at least play a sleepy first half — and the Jets have had a whole week to beat Wilson over the head with playing mistake-free football. If Wilson doesn't turn the ball over, the Jets could very well win this game in a blowout. But I don't think either will happen. I think Wilson will have at least one really bad turnover (ran into a strip-sack in red zone in upset of Bills), and the bye week will allow the Patriots to, for at least one week, put together a good enough offensive plan to win. But I do NOT feel good about this game.
Bedard's Pick: Patriots 20, Jets 17.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. Two huge injury list moves by the Patriots this week with Christian Barmore landing on IR, and Ty Montgomery being lost for the season. This defense needed Barmore back sooner rather than later, and this is disappointing. Guess Deatrich Wise is going to need to continue playing a lot. And Jones and the offense desperately needs a pass-game outlet. Rhamondre Stevenson is good there, but they need a jitterbug. Unleash JJ Taylor once and for all. Give Mac a James White.
2. Interesting that Isaiah Wynn got some practice work at left tackle this week. Could just be getting him reps for the worst-case scenario. But could the Patriots be thinking about going back to last year's tackle setup? That would be admitting another huge offseason offensive error. The mind kind of wanders on this ... Jets DT Quinnen Williams was a huge issue last game against Cole Strange ... could the Patriots bump Trent Brown to guard to combat that with Wynn at LT, Yodny Cajuste at RT?
3. Lil'Jordan Humphrey was released from the practice squad this week. Better late than never, I guess.
4. There's no magical scheme the Patriots can come up with offensively during the bye to become vastly better, that's a misnomer and fantasyland. The coaches do have to coach 'em up better, starting with the line. Then you need to start with what you're good at, and open it up from there. The offense should run through Rhamondre Stevenson/Damien Harris, and then Hunter Henry, especially in the red zone. Then you build your pass-game concepts (hello, playaction) off of all that. Patriots got into this mess by starting with scheme ideas (which have failed), instead of personnel.
5. The NFL made the right call on moving the Bills' game to Detroit. And the Bills couldn't leave earlier because the final decision wasn't make until late on Wednesday. It's the best of a bad situation, and we hope the people of Buffalo make out OK. Scary stuff.