No matter what else the Red Sox do to address their rotation needs this winter -- Re-sign Nate Eovaldi? Bring back Rich Hill? Sign a free agent? Trade for a starter? -- this much is already known: Garrett Whitlock will begin the 2023 season as a starter.
The Red Sox made that much clear at the GM Meetings two weeks ago. Whitlock underwent hip surgery in September, and at the time, the club made it known that one of the reasons he was having the procedure done before the end of the season was to allow him to prepare to start next year.
Tanner Houck, too, could be used in the rotation, but his role is far less defined than Whitlock's. The Sox have told Houck that he might be in the rotation, but that it would depend on how the team's roster building throughout the offseason goes.
If Houck opens the year in the bullpen, it will be a reversal of how things started last year when Houck was part of the rotation and Whitlock started the season in a relief role. Eventually, both pitchers dabbled in both areas -- Whitlock made 22 relief appearances and nine starts while Houck pitched 28 games out of the bullpen and made four starts.
"With both guys, long-term, I think there's a chance that both of them are very good starters,'' said pitching coach Dave Bush. "We may not have the flexibility to do that right now. I think part of it, just given what Garrett went through with his hip last year, we can build his winter around a starting program right now, where we have set benchmarks that he tries to get to. And probably for him, the certainty of the position is a little more important from a health perspective.
"They're both very talented. Obviously, they both had chances to start last year. I think both of them either will or certainly could be quality big-league starters in the future. But for right now, where the roster's at, that's the decision we made in the short term. But Tanner's preparing where, if we need (another) starter, he's going to be one of the guys. He showed last year that he has the stuff to do it and he's pitched very well in all the roles we tried him at.''
For now, Whitlock is the more definitive choice "No. 1, his strike-throwing ability. His stuff is good, there's no doubt about it. The way he pounds the strike zone should lead to some efficient outings, which will let him get more and more length. He's got a three-pitch mix. His slider is a pitch that's improved a lot. The changeup's always been good, the fastball's always been good. And toward the end of the year, he settled into a more consistent shape (with his slider). He started throwing it well and had really good results with it.
"So the three-pitch mix, the ability to throw a ton of strikes and the fact that he repeats his delivery really well -- you put all of those things together and he's a guy we view as a potential long-term starter. In my view, this path has been on our radar the last couple of year -- that we needed a guy who could take on this role and be really good at it. There's always been the sense that this guy could be a really good starter and now's a good time to try it.''
In his rookie season, the Sox didn't want to put too much on Whitlock's plate. He was coming off Tommy John surgery in 2019 and lost most of 2020 to rehab and the elimination of the minor league season. That year was more about seeing if Whitlock could successfully make the jump from Double A to the major leagues, which Whitlock did exceedingly well.
It's not lost on the Red Sox that, last season, Whitlock was better in relief (2.75 ERA; 0.788 WHIP than he was as a starter (4.15 ERA; 1.256 WHIP), but part of that can be attributed to a small sample size, and Whitlock's hip condition, which nagged him during the year and particularly impacted him in longer outings.
"I don't think we've gotten the full picture of who he can be as a starter yet,'' said Bush. "I'd like to see more than the eight or 10 starts he had last year and really let him go out there and learn how to be a big league starter before we make any kind of determination.''
Over the last 10-20 years, baseball has evolved when it comes to evaluating starters and relievers.
"During my era, it felt like a demotion to be sent to the bullpen,'' said Bush, "like you weren't good enough to be thought of as a starter. We view relievers a lot differently now than we used to. There's so much more value at the end of the game; there's so much more value to the fifth, sixth and seventh innings that there used to be. So it's a mix of things. Can a guy start? Do we think he has the mix for it? Is he durable enough to handle it? And what do we need as a team? Where do we need innings? There's a lot of value to a guy who can throw five or six innings every five days.
"If we have a guy that we think can do that and we think can do it well, then that's the right opportunity for him right now.'' on
Beyond the physical tools -- pitch mix, quality of stuff -- the Red Sox have also been impressed by Whitlock's ability to make adjustments on the fly, mid-game.
"The willingness to adapt and the skills to have more than one option,'' said Bush. "If (the opposing team) is going to try to take an option away from him, then he's got more than one more option he can go to.''
As for Houck, he, too, will be ramping up with the idea that he could be used as a starter. If he's not needed, he can easily adjust and prepare to contribute in relief.
"It's hard to make permanent personnel decisions in November,'' said Bush, "because there are so many moves that can be made. As our roster starts to take shape over the winter, it will become clear which direction we're going to move guys. But for right now, the best thing for Tanner is to prepare for either role. That's also one of the things that makes him valuable -- that he can do more than one thing.
"There are some guys who say they can start and only start and they really limit their opportunities in the big leagues. And there are other guys who say that they're relievers and that's it and they miss out on opportunities to start because they're not capable or willing to try something different. But Tanner's good at both and he'll do both. Sometimes that creates a little bit of uncertainty because of his flexibility, but it also creates a lot of value because we know we can use him in a bunch of different roles.''
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Each winter, The Bill James Handbook is published. Beyond the usual stats that are available elsewhere, the book also offers some unique numbers and statistical breakdowns for each team.
Among the interesting tidbits about the 2022 Red Sox:
* Among American League managers who managed the entire season, only three others had fewer stolen base attempt's than Cora's Red Sox, who attempted to steal 72 times. The Sox (and Cora) were also near the bottom with sacrifice bunt attempts (13).
* From the pitching side, Cora used relievers on consecutive days 104 times, a total bettered by only two other teams.
* Cora was also near the bottom when it came to different lineup combinations, using "only" 136. Only Houston's Dusty Baker used fewer combinations with 131.
* Here's a sobering thought for the Red Sox (or perhaps another club): Xander Bogaerts is listed as the No. 1 injury risk for 2023 among all position players. The Handbook research shows that, since 2021, Bogaerts leads MLB in "sliding, diving and jumping plays" at 150.
* From a positive perspective, Bogaerts showed himself to be the team's best baserunner, and in fact, was ranked third in the American League behind only Baltimore's Adley Rutschman and Texas' Marcus Semien. The formula takes into account how many times a baserunner went first-to-third, second-to-home and first-to-home, while also factoring in how many times a runner was thrown out trying to advance, grounded into double plays, etc. Bogaerts was a +21, while Rutschman was +23 and Semien +27.
* At the other end of the spectrum on the Sox was (former) catcher Christian Vazquez, who was -23, ranking in the Bottom 10 in the American League. To those who recall Vazquez's sometimes ill-advised baserunning decisions, this news does not come as a surprise.
* In a bit of a statistical contradiction, the Red Sox as a team ranked second in productive outs (250), but also third in unproductive outs with 790. Alex Verdugo (42) led all of MLB in productive outs while Bogaerts was tied for fifth (96) for most number of unproductive outs.
* Bogaerts led all American League hitters in batting average against lefthanded pitching with a .382 mark while teammate Rafael Devers was fourth (.304) against RHP. Devers was also second to Aaron Judge in slugging percentage against righties and had the highest OPS in the league (.931) for lefty hitters against righty pitchers.
* Nick Pivetta was second among AL pitchers in walks (73) tied for fourth in wild pitches (12) and second in stolen bases allowed (19).
* It will probably not surprise you to learn that Rich Hill threw more pitches (944) under 80 mph than any pitcher in the league. Pivetta ranked third in this category at 791.
* In further evidence showing how much each improved at their respective positions, Devers was third among AL third baseman in range factor while Bogaerts was fourth among shortstops.
* Trevor Story's game vs. Seattle on May 19 earned the highest game score for any position player in 2022. That day, Story was 4-for-4 with three homers, seven RBI and five runs scored.
* The Red Sox called for just 22 replay challenges, the fewest in the game. They were, however, ninth-best in percentage of calls overturned at 54.5 percent.
* Two projections for 2023: Triston Casas is projected to slash .228/.337/.400 with 19 and 65 RBI. Brayan Bello is down for 10-7 and a 3.47 over 28 starts and 151 innings.
* Devers is given the best shot (seven percent) of all active players to break the career doubles mark of 792, held by Tris Speaker. Bogaerts is judged to have a 17 percent chance of reaching 3000 career hits.
* Fenway Park has been known for some time as a great doubles park, and it remained that way with a doubles index of 123 -- the highest in either league -- meaning that it was likely to produce 23 percent more doubles than average. But it was also wildly hospitable to triple with an index of 160, second-highest in the AL.
* It remains astounding that the Sox hit just 86 homers at home, a tad more than one per game.
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Feel free to put me in the ''olds'' category, but, for the life of me, I don't understand uniform fetishism.
Few subjects get fans more riled up on social media than the suggestion/announcement that a particular team is contemplating some change -- minor or major -- to its uniform.
On Friday, the Minnesota Twins unveiled new uniforms for 2023 and beyond at a big event, staged at the Mall of America. A number of players, including Byron Buxton and Joe Ryan, were on hand to model the new unis, which included a new color scheme, a revised logo and a return to pinstripes for the road uniforms.
They looked fine. But then, so did the old ones.
I can understand that teams see a change as a means to drive merchandise sales, especially with the holidays approaching. But is this really worth all the time and energy devoted to it? Worrying about piping on the trim? Or the font for player names?
Count me as disinterested.