Faced with a Thursday afternoon deadline regarding their own free agents, the Red Sox chose to extend qualifying offers to Xander Bogaerts and Nathan Eovaldi, while declining to do so with five others, including J.D. Martinez and Michael Wacha.
The qualifying offer is worth $19.65 million. If a player chooses to accept the offer, he is bound to return to his team, either for the one-year, $19.6 million figure, or, in a some cases, a longer negotiated deal.
Players have 10 days to accept or decline the offers.
For players who are given a qualifying offer and reject it, they will carry with them compensation should they sign elsewhere. If Bogaerts and Eovaldi ultimately choose to sign with another team, the Red Sox will be given an additional draft pick after the fourth round for each in next summer's annual amateur draft.
The notion of giving Bogaerts a QO was a simple one. Bogaerts is an All-Star and Silver Slugger-winning performer and will command a multi-year deal, likely with an average annual value somewhere between $25-$30 million. Accordingly, there is zero chance of Bogaerts accepting the offer, so, in a worst-case scenario, the Red Sox have effectively banked an additional pick. (Had the Sox not finished above the first CBT threshold with their payroll last season, that pick would have instead come after the second round).
The Eovaldi case is different, and without any of the certainty associated with Bogaerts.
Eovaldi is finishing up a four-year, $68 million deal and given the cost of starting pitching, could reasonably assume that he could garner a multi-year deal with an AAV close to or in excess of the $19.6 million qualifying figure, and thus, turn one down in search of a longer pact.
But Eovaldi will be 33 in February, and some shoulder and back woes conspired to limit his velocity in the second half of last season. Eovaldi is still regarded throughout the game as a solid, mid-rotation option, but it's not out of the possibility that a longer-term deal might yield a more modest AAV, pushing him to accept the one-year $19.6 million offer while attempting to regain his velocity and re-enter the market again next year.
In recent days, the Red Sox were engaged with Eovaldi's representatives, in an effort to come to an agreement on a deal outside the parameters of the Qualified Offers arena. Those talks were not fruitful.
Wacha, according to several industry sources, is intent on landing the kind of multi-year deal and long-term security that has, to date, eluded him over the course of his career. Wacha was the team's best starter in 2022, with an 11-2 record and a 3.32 ERA in 23 starts. But some of his peripheral numbers -- including hard-hit rate -- may temper that on the free agent market and serve as a cautionary tale for 2023 and beyond.
Given Wacha's desire to seek a multi-year commitment, the Sox might have chosen to qualify him and stockpile another pick. But apparently, they felt that was too risky a proposition.
The decision on Martinez proved more cut-and-dried. At 35, Martinez just completed his worst full-length season since 2013, with a sub-standard .790 OPS. His home run total was nearly cut in half -- from 28 in 2021 to just 16, including two in the final game of the season, in 2022. In short, Martinez gave every indication of performing like a player in decline, and the club couldn't justify paying him $20 million for one season.
A reunion, at a lower base figure with some incentives, can't entirely be ruled out. But at this point, it seems far more likely that the Sox turn elsewhere in search of a DH. Jose Abreu, Michael Brantley and Josh Bell are among the options. It's also possible that the Sox could follow the path of others and not commit to a single player for DH responsibilities, and instead fill the spot on a rotating basis from among several of their own everyday players.
The team did not consider Qualifying Offers for their three remaining free agents: outfielder Tommy Pham, starter Rich Hill and reliever Matt Strahm, though there's reason to believe that they have some interest in bringing back the latter two on negotiated deals.