When the Red Sox declined their opportunity to exercise a two-year, $26 million option for James Paxton earlier this week, it seemed to signal the end of the veteran lefty's association with the club.
Not so fast.
In a surprising development, Paxton notified the Red Sox Wednesday that he would be exercising his own contractual option and would return for 2023 for $4 million.
While paying Paxton $13 million in each of the next two seasons would have constituted a gross overpay -- Paxton has pitched just 21.2 innings over the last three seasons -- the notion of getting an experienced starter for as little as $4 million would seem to represent a win for the Sox.
Paxton signed with Boston last winter, still recovering from the Tommy John surgery he underwent in 2021. The contract, beyond the options, called for Paxton to be paid $6 million in 2022. The Red Sox expressed hope that he could be ready to contribute to their rotation in the second half of the season.
That wish never came to fruition as Paxton was slowed by a few setbacks along the way -- hardly unusual for pitchers coming back from such a procedure. Finally, with an eye toward making it back to a major league mound before the end of the season, Paxton began a rehab assignment for the team's affiliate in the Florida Complex League in mid-August, only to be forced from the mound in his first inning of work due to a Grade 2 lat tear.
That injury ended Paxton's bid to pitch in 2022. He has since recovered fully from the lat tear.
His return, meanwhile, gives the Red Sox an experienced lefty with a strong track record at a highly affordable price.
Paxton had repeatedly said how much he enjoyed being part of the Red Sox organization, as he split his time between the team's spring training complex and Fenway during the season, working through his rehab and throwing side sessions.
Paxton joins Chris Sale, Nick Pivetta, Brayan Bello and, likely, Garrett Whitlock as candidates for the team's starting rotation. Officially, the Sox have not made public their plans for Whitlock, who split time between starting and relieving last season before suffering a hip tear that required late-season surgery. But the team acknowledged that one of the motivations behind the timing of his surgery was to have him available for any role in 2023.
When healthy, Paxton has been a very effective American League starter. In 2019, his last fully healthy season, he was 15-6 with a 3.82 ERA in 29 starts. From 2017-2019, he averaged 13 wins and a 3.54 ERA and 27 starts while striking out 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings and a 1.16 WHIP.
Because he's pitched so little over the last three seasons, Paxton can hardly be considered a sure thing for the 2023 rotation. And given that the same can be said of Sale, who has his own Tommy John procedure, the Red Sox now carry two highly-talented lefties whose availability can hardly be taken for granted.
Still, if Paxton is indeed finally healthy, he represents a very affordable piece to a rotation, with a lot of potential upside at a very reasonable cost.
The Paxton deal almost certainly won't dissuade the Red Sox from efforts to further bolster the rotation, which was ranked 22nd among all teams in 2022. The Sox could still pursue a top free agent such as Carlos Rodon, or attempt to deal for a top-of-the-rotation talent.
Finally, the Sox have also had discussions with Rich Hill, another free agent from the 2022 rotation, who has expressed a preference to return on another low-cost deal, further enhancing the organization's starting pitching depth.