Going through the five aspects of the Patriots I'm confident in heading into the final nine games of the season, and those that I'm worried could lead to this team not making the playoffs for the second time in three seasons:
CONFIDENT
1. Bill Belichick.
Do I think he's in his prime? No, and having to put so much effort into the offense — which he is doing — has left the team a little shorter than normal in terms of game management and defensive strategy. But Belichick is still pretty damn good, and a lot better than most of the coaches he views on the other sideline. I do have the ultimate confidence that when he comes to each game and how the Patriots are going to win that game, Belichick is going to set the right course when gameplanning starts through the point the hay is in the barn. He's not perfect — Belichick whiffed on the Bears game entirely, and his handling of Mac Jones was a misstep — but we should all have high confidence the Patriots know how to win each game going in. Whether they get it done, that's comes down to talent (mediocre) and execution (ok but not great).
Belichick has done a solid job keeping the offense progressing. I knew he would do that, it's why the horror show that we witnessed in the summer on the practice fields did not deter me from thinking the Patriots would be in it until the end. Belichick would ultimately figure out a way to make it work, and he largely as — although the offense still has a way to go. It is making some progress. The injury bug is not helping.
2. Rhamondre Stevenson
He's a perfect blend of power runner, agile back, blocking and soft hands in the passing game. Even when not much has been blocked for him of late, he finds a way to bounce off one or two tacklers and picks up big chunks. There isn't anything he can't do, but I'm not going to go overboard for a running back and his potential impact in today's game. The guys you'd list ahead of Stevenson in the league — Nick Chubb, Josh Jacobs, Aaron Jones, Derrick Henry, Saquon Barkley — can't lift the prospects of their team by themselves. Same holds true with Stevenson. It's great that he's taken a step forward this season. But that won't mean much if the rest of the offense doesn't pick it up. And Stevenson has not risen to the level of keeping up opposing defensive coordinators the night before a game.
3. Cornerback man coverage ability.
It's not perfect but the trio of Jonathan Jones, Jack Jones and Jalen Mills have done a really nice job in coverage this season when they've played man. Even Myles Bryant has played well more often than not. That's going to be a big plus when it comes to this late-season stretch that will make or break this team again. It's the biggest reason why I have some hope the defense can break through this three-year string of wilting down the stretch and costing this team.
4. Matthew Judon.
We've been here before with him — completely and utterly dominating no matter what the opponent does — and have seen it evaporate. I have more confidence it will continue because Judon looked in the mirror and vowed to be better. And, also, the Patriots are doing a better job of keeping some of the early-down wear-and-tear off of him. Judon can thank Anfernee Jennings and his immense strength on the edge for that.
5. Mike Onwenu.
I thought about putting Jakobi Meyers here because he has been money on third down and his route running just keeps getting better and better, but I fear teams shutting him down later in the season. I have no such reservations about Big Mike, who was so lost at guard last year that Ted Karras sent Onwenu to the bench. Could he solve the right tackle woes for this team? Maybe ... probably. But he's been so good at right guard that you don't want to mess with that or him. He's playing with confidence, leave him be. Any offensive coordinator worth a salt should be able to figure out how to help a right tackle once in a while.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
WORRIED
1. The rest of the offensive line.
It's a fact this group has gotten worse by the week. And because the talent is there, I do put most of the blame on coaching. Matt Patricia could be a damn good line coach or offensive coordinator (in time with experience), but he can't be good at both — which was my big issue with this experiment. And the line is suffering the consequences. Yes, they moved Billy Yates down from the box (finally) and he's probably doing most of the coaching, but team sources say he's been in over his head with some of this stuff to the point that James Ferentz and David Andrews have done a lot of coaching. And you wonder why it's looked a lot worst since Andrews suffered his concussion — Ferentz can't help and play at the same time.
Cole Strange is doing fine for a rookie, but Andrews helped him a lot when he was uncovered in the pass game. Andrews is a good center, but Ferentz is a big step back. Right tackle has been a disaster and now that Marcus Cannon is on IR, Patriots Nation turns its lonely eyes back to Isaiah Wynn. Trent Brown has mostly been good but trended down against the Browns and Bears before reverting to form against the Jets. I have confidence in Brown's play, but can he keep this up? That's a worry.
2. Linebackers against faster teams.
This is pretty obvious. Against teams with mobile quarterbacks, the Patriots look as slow as ever because Ja'Whaun Bentley and Jahlani Tavai are slow. And if your ILBers are slow, your defense is slow (go watch the Saints and Broncos some time if you want to see speed at the second level). Tavai has been pressed into service — and he's assignment-sure, absolutely — because the Patriots' previous plans (Cam McGrone, Raekwon McMillan, Mack Wilson) have gone up in smoke. Might as well have Kyle Van Noy and Dont'a Hightower back in there because at least they make big plays once in a while. This team just keeps treading water here. Imagine if they took Jaguars LB Devin Lloyd in the first round to toy with and bumped everyone else a round lower? Sigh, a man can dream. Impossible to say how realistic that was.
3. Playcalling when it comes to nut-cutting time.
What we know so far: Patricia can call games with a lead. Did that well against the Steelers, Lions, Browns and Jets. But the games down the stretch, if the Patriots are going to do damage, are going to start coming down to the fourth quarter — and sometimes being behind. How he does in those circumstances is a much bigger challenge, and the answer is coming, one way or the other.
4. Mac Jones.
Sure, he had some difficulties down the stretch last year, like the entire team. That's kind of what happens to young players as rookies at any position, especially quarterback. He should be further along in the second season and isn't for a variety of issues. In order: offensive approach, pass protection, injury. I feel comfortable with Jones executing — if he's well-protected and the coordinator is calling the game for Jones, not how he thinks the Patriots need to play. Neither of those things feel close to happening, but things can change quickly in the NFL. One drive when Jones, the line and Patricia are clicking could change everything. Needs to happen soon.
5. Interior defensive line.
It's still a major issue, especially with Christian Barmore dealing with injury and a sophomore slump. Davon Godchaux has been solid, but they're not paying him for solid. Lawrence Guy is on the back nine of his career. The rest of the guys are just guys. And the linebackers need linemen to keep blockers off them. It feels like 2019, 2020 and 2021 all over again. Maybe Barmore comes back better than ever. That would be a big help and could change the course for this team.
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. The Patriots were rumored by PFT to be in on Steelers WR Chase Claypool before he was traded to Chicago for a second-round pick. Why would they do that considering he's another target similar to DeVante Parker? Has to be for next season. Nelson Agholor and Jakobi Meyers will both be unrestricted free agents after this season. Still, strange.
2. Life comes at you fast department... Who would have thought a few months ago that Rams (3-4) at Bucs (3-5) would be an afterthought? The lesson here: build up your offensive lines and their depth. Even the best schemes (Rams) and QBs (Brady) are no use without solid protection in front of them — oh, and viable running games.
3. The gift that keeps on giving? Matthew Judon has already been dominant, and figured to have a big game against a bad Colts offensive line against LT Dennis Kelly, who's not a left tackle. He's questionable and might not be able to go. Judon could be facing rookie Bernhard Raimann, who I liked for the Patriots in the draft as a second-tier OT.
4. Colts DE Kwity Paye, whose mother emigrated their family from Liberia to Providence, is set to return from an ankle injury that sidelined him three games. He told reporters this will be the first NFL game his mother, Agnes, will attend. Would watch out for him on the edge.
5. So I caught up on Raiders film and their 24-0 debacle against the Saints. No, I don't think Josh McDaniels is getting fired after the season (a reminder that Belichick started 2-8 here in 2000, and 6-14 before No. 12 showed up). It was a really bad game — similar but definitely worse than the Patriots' Bears loss. That Saints defense is fast as hell and just beat up the Raiders up front. The bigger issue going forward for the Raiders is Derek Carr. With each week, he's getting worse at executing this scheme — there are players open, and he's just not seeing them correctly. Even with his extension, the Raiders can walk away from his contract at any time after this season. I would keep that in mind. Imagine if Tom Brady went there and did for McDaniels what he did for Belichick ... over two decades ago. That's just silly.