A deeper look at the Colts — who are 31st overall in DVOA (where the Bears were entering that contest) — through coaches' film analysis, matchup advantages and disadvantages, gameplan points and game pick, but first...
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It's amazing, really.
Despite all evidence to the contrary, NFL head coaches keep hiring Gus Bradley as their defensive coordinator. The most amazing part of all of this, since he flamed out as Jaguars coach (14-48) in 2016, he has been hired by a succession of offensive head coaches (Anthony Lynn, Chargers; Jon Gruden, Raiders; and now Frank Reich, Colts) who you think would know best that on film, Bradley's Seattle Cover 3 scheme is largely played out and easy to rip through if you do a few key things.
Bradley is a good coach, to be sure. He rose to prominence as Pete Carroll's defensive coordinator with the Legion of Boom defense from 2009-14 — but it was Carroll's scheme and direction, and even he has pivoted away from the scheme that keyed Seattle's early success. Bradley is energetic and magnetic as a leader of men.
But, man, the X's and O's have long ago been gone.
Even though the raw stats this year look good — top 10 in points and yards — there should be context, as always. According to FootballOutsiders.com's DVOA numbers that take a lot into consideration, especially opponent strength, the Colts are just 14th overall on defense, 20th against the pass (more about scheme) and 6th against the run (mostly about talent).
A year ago, under now-Bears coach Matt Eberflus, the Colts were 8th overall, 17th against the pass and 3rd against the run.
His previous jobs:
2021 Raiders: 26th points, 14 yards
2020 Chargers: 23rd points, 10th yards
And, oh boy, do the Patriots love to see Bradley on the other sideline — at least they did under Josh McDaniels. The Patriots have won their last four meetings by an average score of Patriots 39.5, Bradley's Team 14.5:
2020 Patriots 45, Chargers 0
2018 Patriots 41, Chargers 28 (Divisional Round)
2017 Patriots 21, Chargers 13
2015 Patriots 51, Jaguars 17
The Colts are certainly still talented on defense, if a little beat up. They have three good corners in Stephon Gilmore, Kenny Moore and Isaiah Rodgers. Shaq Leonard (battling injuries) and Bobby Okereke are two excellent linebackers when right. DeForest Bucker and Grover Stewart are two elite interior line defenders. Yannick Ngakoue can get to the QB, and Kwity Paye (has been injured but appears to be back) is a good young pass rusher.
You could make the argument that Bradley has underachieved to this point with this group.
Color me shocked. This is the biggest factor in this matchup, especially with RB Jonathan Taylor ruled out.
OFFENSE
Indy DVOA: 32nd overall, 30th pass, 32nd rush
Patriots D: 6th overall, 5th pass, 27th rush
DEFENSE
Indy DVOA: 14th overall, 20th pass, 6th rush
Patriots off: 24th overall, 25th pass, 20th rush
SPECIAL TEAMS DVOA
Patriots 8th, Colts 16th
MATCHUP ADVANTAGES
Patriots DL vs. Colts OL: Outside of LG Quenton Nelson, this line is bad and unathletic. RG Matt Pryor has allowed 29 pressures and five sacks this season. RT Braden Smith is the best overall player. LT Dennis Kelly is not a LT, and he's their third done. C Ryan Kelly is solid. The Patriots should be able to own the line of scrimmage, like everyone else.
Belichick vs. QB Sam Ehlinger: A sixth-round pick in 2021, Ehlinger made his first start last week and it was fine. He's smart, tough physically, can run some, and his arm will pop at times. But he's inexperienced and doesn't know what he's seeing a lot of the time. The Patriots can get him flustered and inaccurate. You want him throwing on the move. Of course, I said this about Justin Fields — they're similar (Fields is faster as a runner).
LT Trent Brown vs. ED Yannick Ngakoue: All flash, no substance. Will run around the QB. Brown should own this matchup.
Patriots DBs vs. Colts weapons: The Patriots should be able to matchup and shut down WRs Michael Pittman, Alec Pierce (rookie) and Parris Campbell, and TE Mo Allie-Cox.
MATCHUP DISADVANTAGES
Colts interior DL vs. Patriots' James Ferentz and Cole Strange: If the Patriots lose this game, it will be because the Colts absolutely own Strange and Ferentz to the point the Patriots can't run the ball, and Mac Jones is pressured up the middle constantly.
Colts CBs vs. Patriots WRs: If the scheme allowed them to be more physical and press, I'd be more worried about Gilmore and Moore, but you still get a lot of Cover 3 — and we all know how Gilmore is better in man coverage.
Colts crafty offense vs. Patriots' old-school defense: This is another athletic quarter with a lot of RPOs, split zone runs and passes. If they rip off the Bears' offensive gameplan, this could be an issue for this team.
GAME PLAN POINTS
Help Strange and Ferentz with scheme and timing: They will not be able to hold off Buckner and Stewart if they're just left one on one all day. Matt Patricia is going to have to scheme this run game and the pass game taking care of those guys.
Attack, attack, attack: The Patriots should have little fear of the big play in this one, so I would love to see them stop sitting on their heels with the read option and just attack — if it's the run or pass, just keep going. Impose your will!
Go old school with the offense: If you try to pick on Gilmore and Moore too much, you are going to get burned. Grind it out with the run game. Use playaction and highlight the tight ends, please.
GAME PICK
BetOnline.ag Line: Patriots -6. O/U: 40.5.
Bedard's record: 7-1 straight up, 7-1 vs. spread
This is a big litmus test for Patricia. McDaniels owned Bradley repeatedly, even when Bradley had a lot of talent (like this year). I still don't have a lot of confidence there. I do have confidence the Patriots' defense will be better than they were against Bears — and probably learned a lot from that awful loss. I think this game is tight, but the Patriots get a late score to put them over the top.
Bedard's Pick: Patriots 20, Colts 13.