If the Red Sox intend to spend for some big names on the free agent market, it likely is going to come at a hefty price -- and that's beyond the tens of millions in salary any deal will require.
Should the Red Sox sign a free agent who is given -- and turns down -- a qualifying offer by his former team, the Red Sox will be stripped of their second- and fifth-highest draft picks in next summer's amateur draft, as well as $1 million in international signing pool money.
That's because the Red Sox were one of a handful of teams to exceed MLB's CBT (Competitive Balance Tax) threshold last season, with a payroll of about $233 million, some three million above the first threshold of $230 million.
It will be a while before we know which free agents are going to be given qualifying offers, but a few are virtually guaranteed: shortstops Dansby Swanson, Trea Turner, starting pitchers Jacob deGrom, Carlos Rodon, catcher Willson Contreras and outfielders Aaron Judge and Brandon Nimmo.
The qualifying offer this year is worth $19.65 million.
(Two others who would otherwise be given qualifying offers -- Carlos Correa and Justin Verlander -- are ineligible because they received them last them season and CBA rules prohibit a player from being qualified more than once.)
Other than Rodon, it's difficult to imagine the Red Sox being involved with many of the free agents with qualifying offers.
Could the threat of losing two picks -- along with the international pool money -- be enough to dissuade the Sox from competing for some of these players? Perhaps in the past, with the team more focused on restocking the minor league system through the draft and international free agency. But having built up a stronger inventory in the system, they may be more willing to pay that price this winter.
In the past, the compensation attached to free agents who get qualified offers has acted as a drag on interest across the industry.
Of course, the Red Sox themselves have some decisions to make on their own free agents. Should Xander Bogaerts decide to opt-out -- as he almost certainly will -- the Sox will undoubtedly give him a qualifying offer, thereby depressing his value on the open market, while also potentially supplying the Sox an extra pick (at the end of the fourth round) should he sign elsewhere.
Adding additional potential picks would also impact what the Sox might have to forfeit if they sign a qualified free agent. For instance, if Bogaerts signs elsewhere, the Sox would get the additional post-fourth-round pick and that, in turn, would be sacrificed if they signed a qualified free agent of their own. Instead of giving up their own fifth-round pick, they would lose the comp pick -- as well as a second-rounder.
Less certain is whether the Sox might give qualifying offers to three other free agents of their own: DH J.D. Martinez and starters Nathan Eovaldi and Michael Wacha.
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Quietly -- or so they thought -- the Red Sox signed Jason Varitek to a new three-year deal earlier this week. Varitek's contract had expired at the end of the season and the Sox didn't hesitate to extend him, according to an industry source.
Typically, the team doesn't publicly address the status of its coaches. But Varitek's wife, Catherine, revealed the news on her Twitter account.
Varitek, 50, served as the team's Game Planning coordinator this past season.
Had current bench coach Will Venable been hired for a managerial opening, it's possible that Varitek would have been elevated to bench coach. But with Venable set to return, Varitek will remain in the same capacity for 2023.
Varitek has acknowledged that he has some interest in becoming a major league manager. His current role could be a stepping stone toward that goal.