In Jim Montgomery’s system, can Charlie McAvoy reach another level?

Among the many surprising developments that have fueled the Bruins’ dominant 8-1-0 start to the 2022-23 campaign, the stout structural integrity of what was expected to be a patchwork D corps might stand as the team’s top revelation.

After a banged-up blue line still learning the ropes of Jim Montgomery’s system coughed up seven goals to the Senators on Oct. 18, the writing seemed to be on the wall that the B’s were going to have to win plenty of 5-4 contests over the next few weeks in order to stay afloat. Hardly a winning (and sustainable) formula.

But since that implosion, the Bruins have only relinquished six goals in their last five games – all wins, as expected.

So far this season, the Bruins rank second in the NHL in goals against per game at 2.33, with only Bruce Cassidy’s Vegas Golden Knights boasting a lower rate (1.70 goals against per game). 

Even the underlying numbers have supported Boston’s commitment to limiting high-danger shots around Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman — with only the Devils and Golden Knights holding opponents to a lower shot quality at 5v5 play.

Of course, the return of Matt Grzelcyk and Brandon Carlo and their respective skillsets have helped bolster this defense over the last week, while Ullmark’s stellar start has also absolved this defensive unit of a fair share of miscues.

Meanwhile, the strong play of Hampus Lindholm as the current top dog on the roster — coupled with fantastic starts further down the depth chart by both Derek Forbort and Connor Clifton — have augmented this defense from a potential Achilles  heel to yet another pillar of success for this Bruins team.

And if opposing teams aren’t already fretting over the fact that Boston’s stingy defense has yet to collapse in on itself — they will once the B’s get their top blueliner (and arguably, top player) back in the fold in Charlie McAvoy.

While McAvoy — recovering from offseason shoulder surgery — is not on the Herculean recovery timeline that saw Brad Marchand get back into game action more than four weeks ahead of schedule, the perennial Norris Trophy candidate has taken some major steps forward in recent days.

Even though McAvoy will not play during this current three-game road trip against Pittsburgh, New York and Toronto, he will travel with the club — with McAvoy now practicing in a full-contact sweater with the rest of the roster.

“He’s ahead of schedule. He’s ahead of December 1,” Montgomery said of McAvoy. “He’s just starting in his progression, like we have our internal timeline. I’m hopeful it’ll be before November 24, to be honest, but he has to check boxes as we continue to progress here, and he’s just starting that now.”

Given that McAvoy is, at the very least, a week away from getting cleared to play, Montgomery isn’t spending too much time envisioning the impact and lift that this lineup will receive once McAvoy is once again logging heavy minutes for this team.

But that doesn’t mean he hasn’t pondered it once or twice.

"I think he's easily one of the top defensemen in the league,” Montgomery said of McAvoy’s ceiling. “Everybody's different, right? (Cale) Makar does it differently than he does. But I don't like to put a ceiling on a player that has that talent. And he can beat people one on one, he can give and go, he can out-skate people. He can out-physical people. Again, I'm starting to get excited now.”

When compared to other top blueliners in the league like Makar and Roman Josi, what separates McAvoy in most instances is his outstanding shutdown numbers in the D-zone. He may not have the flair of a Makar (granted, who does?), but few in the league can consistently negate top-six talent as well as McAvoy can — with his blend of on-ice awareness, stick skills and physicality making him a matchup nightmare.

Add in his transition talents when it comes to crisp first passes and ability to gain easy entries through the neutral zone, and McAvoy might be the most balanced top-pairing option in the league — a game-changer that will only make an already effective D corps even better.

But even if McAvoy has already staked his claim as one of just a handful of elite D-men in the league, that doesn’t mean that his ceiling is anywhere close to being reached. Even though Boston’s zone defense hasn’t been scrapped under Montgomery, there are still multiple wrinkles and new schemes elsewhere that McAvoy will still need to learn now that he’s back with the main group. 

“We're just excited that he's on the ice, he's going to start getting repetitions of how we want to play because it's a little bit different,” Montgomery said of McAvoy. “You can tell because he's a little bit of deer in the headlights at the beginning of practice. Everybody else knows what we're doing just by the name of drills and what we're doing and he's looking and he watches the first couple of reps before he goes."

Given his age, it’s safe to assume that McAvoy still has another level to reach when it comes to his D-zone details and transition game. But when it comes to adapting to Montgomery’s system, McAvoy has to be chomping at the bit to join a scheme that does take the reins off of their blueliners a bit, especially when it comes to O-zone chances.

Already this season, the Bruins are getting far more production from the back end — with an emphasis on more high-danger shot selection leading to more instances in which Boston’s D corps are activating off the blue line or joining the rush in search of a Grade-A scoring chance. 

Through nine games, Boston’s defensemen have accounted for 20 percent of the B’s total scoring (95 points) — with offensively-gifted skaters like Lindholm (seven points) and Grzelcyk (four points in five games) reaping the benefits of a coach who is more than happy with a bit more risk-taking. 

Even though just four of the 38 goals that the B’s have scored this season have come off the stick of defensemen, Boston’s expected goals per 5v5 shot among D-men ranks 10th in the league — a sign that the Bruins D corps is making a concerted effort to let shots fly from areas far closer than the low-danger realm along the blue line. 

That emphasis on seizing scoring opportunities when they present themselves could lead to a major surge in scoring for McAvoy — a defenseman who still went out and posted 56 points in 78 games last season. 

The Bruins, based on both the tangible production put forth and the underlying numbers generated, sure look like a juggernaut through the first few weeks of the 2022-23 season. 

And even if their shooting percentages and goalie play regress in the weeks ahead, some of that return to the mean will be countered by the addition of McAvoy — a top-five defenseman who might still have a lot more to give under Boston’s new head coach. 

“We still don't have a definitive date,” McAvoy said of his eventual return. “But I mean, I guess we're just checking boxes. We're working really hard. And everybody's doing a great job. So it’s getting exciting."

Stats and graphs via Natural Stat Trick, HockeyViz and JFreshHockey.