Sorry for the delay on this. Tough week with the late game, QB controversy and COVID issues.
FREE PREVIEWS: LAST WEEK'S THREE PLAYS VS. THE LIONS
BEDARD'S BREAKDOWN FROM PACKERS GAME
BEDARD'S BREAKDOWN FROM ZAPPE'S FIRST START — Breaking down the good and bad (yes, there was some) in Bailey Zappe's first start
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Is Matt Patricia sabotaging Mac Jones with his approach and playcalls?
No. That would be pretty ridiculous.
If Patricia has been guilty of anything this season when it comes Jones and Bailey Zappe, it's that he's thought too much of Jones and been overly aggressive. That happens all the time. Coaches aren't perfect. Sometimes you take the wrong approach.
It's pretty clear he has.
Jones, according to PFF, leads the league in deep passing (20+) percentage this season — 20.4 percent of his passes. As a rookie, Jones was 20th at 11.3 percent.
Zappe, meanwhile, is 26th at 9.8 percent.
Jones, this season, is 2nd in the league to mad bomber Jameis Winston, in average depth of target (10.4 yards). As a rookie, Jones was 13th (8.3 yards).
Even with his big shot-plays, Zappe is 27th this season at 7.4 yards.
With that aggressive playcalling, Jones' turnover-worthy play percentage has gone from to 32nd at 2.5 percent as a rookie to 5th in the league at 5.5 percent.
Zappe is 32nd at 1.8.
In the last full game for each player — it's hard to compare their stats against the Bears because Zappe's got skewed due to the second-half deficit — this is how it worked out:
Jones vs. Ravens: 12.3 average depth of target; 9.5 turnover-worthy play percentage.
Zappe vs. Browns: 6.1 average depth of target, 0.0 turnover-worthy play percentage.
It's not that difficult to see what's going on here.
The Patriots, offensively, have tried to have their cake and eat it too. To start the season, they wanted to push the ball aggressively down field. When that happens, turnover percentage increases. But Jones seems to be the only one taking the brunt of the blame when clearly the approach had a heavy hand.
Do you want to have big plays or do you want to limit turnovers? Unless you have one of the elite players, you kind of need to choose one or the other.
It's not that hard to go in that direction. This Sunday's opponent, the Jets, have basically told their second-year QB, Zach Wilson — the second overall pick when Jones went 15th — that he's not going to lose them the game for them any longer. After having a 9.7 average depth of target in his first two games back from injury, it's gone down to 6.2 — Zappe territory. The Jets averaged 103.5 passing yards in wins over the Packers and Broncos entering this contest.
As to some of the playcalling specifics against the Bears — Zappe got under-center play-action passes on his third and fourth attempts, Jones' first six official attempts (second play had offsetting penalties) were out of shotgun, and his first under-center shotgun pass was on his 15th play — there's any number of reasons why Patricia would run fairly basic play-action for Jones (he missed Jakobi Meyers deep on a big play), and a more tricked-out version for Zappe. Some playcallers have specific parts of the game when they want to run certain plays. Maybe Patricia had the Meyers touchdown tabbed as closer to halftime due to other playcalls to set it up. Anything's possible.
This is absolutely true: any play called in that game — for Jones or Zappe, even running plays — Patricia believed that play had a high degree of success rate against the Bears. The Patriots only put plays on the playsheet they think will be successful. There are zero plays on the sheet that they think will stink. And the QB often has a lot of input in that. When I was viewing the Texans behind the scenes, Brian Hoyer and coordinator George Godsey were texting all the time about plays to put on the sheet.
So there's no sabotaging involved. Every play on the playsheet, the playcaller believes is going to work against the defense's tendency in that situation.
It's also a fact that playcallers, and I talked to one this week about it to double check, have a certain number of gameplan-specific calls that they love, and those are starred or highlighted.
"Definitely have some that like, number one, I'm gonna call this no matter what at some point in the game," the OC said. "Like, 100%, you when you're done with a game plan, you basically go through and say, 'I'm calling these 17 plays. I don't give a shit when it is or how I do it, I'm not leaving the game, I'm not leaving the stadium until I do it."
Which plays get called when in the game — and for what player, in the Patriots' circumstances — could be affected by any number of things.
Patricia could have been going in order he wanted to call them on his playsheet. Jones got a deep 20-yard out that was negated by penalty, and then the one before the pick. Zappe got the tricked out version, that's just a fact. The next one was not tricked out. It could have been the order on his sheet. Patricia could have thought Jones would get the better play, depending on what the plan was with the QBs before the game (whatever that was). Could Patricia have saved that play for Zappe — for any reason, including the fact that Zappe is a better playfaker than Jones? Yes, that's also possible. Doesn't mean it's nefarious. It's also possible Belichick told Patricia, 'Look, we're just getting Jones' feet wet — he's going to have too much rust, just run the bread and butter. We'll win the game when Zappe gets in there.' That's managing the game and the expectations for the player entering the game.
Sure, there could be a conspiracy theory that goes like this: Patricia and Joe Judge prefer Zappe because he doesn't ask questions, is a blank slate, and he runs their offense (even if the degree of difficulty is lessened) the way they wanted. And they held the best plays for him to make him look better.
I mean, that's possible but I wouldn't say it's probable by any stretch.
The facts: the Patriots run a more aggressive passing offense with Jones compared to his rookie season and it hasn't gotten good results. Zappe's plays have been less aggressive and, until the second half on Monday night, had better results. Zappe got a better play-action play than Jones.
Those are indisputable facts. Anything beyond that is conjecture.
Here are the positional ratings against the Bears:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (0 out of 5)
Mac Jones was under pressure 50 percent of his dropbacks, including getting blasted by Robert QuInn on the pass where he just missed Tyquan Thornton. ... The offense as a whole got off to a rough execution start: 2 plus plays, 19 minus plays in his three series. The penalties were brutal. ... Zappe was pressured just 17 percent. The rest of the team had 9 plus plays, 12 minus plays in Zappe's time. ... Bears seemed to catch on to Zappe's height as they stopped rushing and just got into his passing lanes with four pass deflections. Just one, the interception, was Zappe's fault. He stared down the receiver and made it too easy. ... Zappe's -5.3 Completion Percentage Above Expectation ranked 22nd in the league this week. Jones only had 3 worse games (PIT this year, LAC & BUF week 16 last year). He didn't have a negative number until his 7th start last year. ... The crucial fumble appeared to be on Zappe as he didn't put it into Meyer's pocket. Up until that, Zappe had three plus plays and one minus. After that: 2 plus, 8 minus. ... Zappe looked like the better QB for a while, then the wheels came off.
Running backs (2.5 out of 5)
Couldn't really find much room to run in this one, but Rhamondre Stevenson still looked like the clear starter. ... Damien Harris had a drop in limited time.
Receivers (4 out of 5)
Not a ton of production in this one, but the receivers did their part. ... DeVante Parker's best overall game as a Patriot (yes, I know he's had more production). ... Blocking was on point for the entire unit.
Offensive line (1 out of 5)
The offensive line was awful in this game. ... Quinn and Myles Garrett — the only guys you have to stop on those defenses — both had strong games vs. New England (Quinn wasn't quite as impactful on film) in back-to-back weeks. When did New England ever use to let one lineman get off on them? They've shut down JJ Watt and Aaron Donald with ease. ... The offensive coordinator usually works with the line coach to set up the blocking for every play. Patricia does both jobs. How does that work now with Patricia doing both jobs? ... Trent Brown, Cole Strange and Marcus Cannon all had games to forget. Cannon's slow feet have to be a concern. Not sure it's clear that he's better than Isaiah Wynn.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (2 out of 5)
I've seen much worse games out of this unit — Matthew Judon and Anfernee Jennings had a ton of production. Unfortunately, Judon was a liability on the edge against the run to the point it appears the Bears were targeting him. ... Jamie Collins made zero impact in his first game back. ... Davon Godchaux had the strongest game for the interior guys. ... Carl Davis and Deatrich Wise had big issues with their run fits.
Linebackers (1 out of 5)
Just brutal. Not only could this group not get off blocks, but they had big issues in zone coverage as the Patriots seemed to prioritize — too much — stopping the Bears' run game. ... Patriots looked old and slow against a faster team — just like the previous three years. Too much 'Do your job' guys instead of playmakers. They needed playmakers in this game to thwart the Bears. ... Patriots should have been more aggressive blitzing the run.
Secondary (2 out of 5)
This game raises the alarm bells that the Patriots have to play man coverage to be at their best in the secondary. They were all very undisciplined in zone coverage, which led to big and easy plays for Justin Fields. In man coverage, they were strong again. That's the issue with mobile QBs. If you play man, you're turning around and they can run. Zone is easier to throw against without pressure, and there was not enough in this game.
FOUR UP
Anfernee Jennings: Was one of the few edge/linebackers that appeared ready to go in this game. He was great on the edge and did his job.
Rhamondre Stevenson: In addition to his running, his hands look so nice and smooth.
DeVante Parker: That catch on the 50-50 ball was ridiculous. Also had a nice block on the TD run.
Davon Godchaux: Surprisingly, he did well holding the point of attack — compared to his linemates.
Adam Richins for BSJ
SEVEN DOWN
Mack Wilson: Supposed to bring speed to the linebackers, but he was all over the place in this one.
Bailey Zappe: Huge fumble and two bad interceptions.
Trent Brown, Cole Strange, Marcus Cannon: All three were equally poor in this game.
Jake Bailey: A 31.8 net average?! What is going on with him?
Kyle Dugger: Did not look right before his injury. Whiffed on a big third-down tackle, and got burned in coverage again on a third down.
