The Celtics were the league’s first 3-0 team, which might feel impressive until you look at the standings and see Utah and Portland also have perfect records.
Obviously it’s very early, but the Celtics have looked good for stretches of their three wins, and not-so-good in others. Looking at stats to come up with determinations three games into a season is foolish, but it’s a fun way to at least see what’s going on in the short term.
The Celtics have the league’s best offense and 25th-ranked defense. Not exactly what we expected from this team.
The Celtics can beat Chicago 90-85 tonight and both of those numbers will change significantly, So again this isn't some final word on who they are. However, it’s obvious they're winning with offense.
The Celtics have struggled to defend, but they’ve put up 121 points per game so far, good for sixth in the NBA.
That's actually encouraging news considering it was Boston’s defensive identity that was seen as what would get the team through these early months. They do have to figure a few things out on defense, though. They're in the bottom third of the league in opponent field goal percentage (47.6%).
You might think “well, of course their defense is struggling without Robert Williams,” and that's certainly part of the story here, but the Celtics are the best defensive team in the restricted area right now (opponents shooting 54.5%) and third-best defensive team within five feet of the rim (53.9%). Where Boston is struggling is in the mid-range and out.
There are a couple of reasons for this. First of all, there's just the luck of the draw. Jimmy Butler hit a bunch of mid-range shots. Miami in general hit a bunch of tough mid-range shots. So did Philadelphia. Some of those numbers will flatten out against some lesser shooting teams and water will find its level.
The other reason is Boston’s drop coverage in the pick-and-roll. This play against Tyrese Maxey is one of the best examples of what’s happening:
When they employ this defense, the Celtics are trying to chase over the top of screens and drop their bigs into the paint to protect the rim. In this case, Maxey just rose up for a long 2-pointer. That's something Boston will live with in situations with Noah Vonleh or Blake Griffin on the floor. Without Robert Williams, the Celtics don’t have the luxury of playing further up on the screen because a guard like Maxey would beat a big like Vonleh off the dribble every time. That's fine if Williams is in the game. Even with Horford back there, the Celtics aren’t going to ask him to do that much flying around.
The variance will eventually be wrung from the stats, but in the meantime, the Celtics have to face DeMar DeRozan and the Chicago Bulls tonight. DeRozan lives in this soft spot, so he might push these numbers a bit lower before they get better for the Celtics.
That means the offense is going to have to do a lot of the work to get Boston going. So far, the Celtics are an analytics dream team on offense, excelling beyond the arc, at the rim, and at the free throw line.
The Celtics are third in the NBA in made 3-pointers per game (15) and seventh in 3-point percentage (39.1%). They are second in the league inside the restricted area (72.9%) and they're third at the line (84.5%). The Celtics are scoring 121 points per game, and 84 of them are coming from either 3-pointers, the rim, or the line. They're getting another 12 in the paint but outside the restricted area, which brings the total to 96.
For now, the Celtics are also the best mid-range team in the league, which is a bit of an aberration. Really, the Celtics offense is a product of a hot start from Jayson Tatum, and to a little lesser degree Jaylen Brown. Tatum is 6-8 in mid-range shots. Brown is 5-8.
That should level off, but it’s also one of the things we should be watching for this season. Brown is simply a good mid-range shooter, so I encourage him to take more of those. Tatum, though, has not been great in that area, but he’s started out amazingly well. I think it’s because most of his mid-range shots have been the back-down, tons of dribbling, fadeaway shots that are tough to make. The shots Tatum is taking in the mid-range are more in rhythm. He obviously won’t shoot 75% from there on the season, but if he’s somewhere around 50%, it could be a game-changing development for Tatum and the Celtics.
In the meantime, let’s focus on how Tatum is carrying things so far. Tatum is the first Celtic to ever score more than 100 points through the first three games of the season. Here’s the breakdown of his 104 points (with his percentages in parentheses):
36 in the restricted area (81.8%)
24 on 3-pointers (33.3%)
22 from the free throw line (88%)
12 mid-range (75%)
10 in the paint (non-restricted) (55.6%)
The restricted area numbers are fantastic so far. It goes along with what I wrote about how well he has been attacking the rim. Tatum shot 68% in the restricted area in each of the past two seasons and 59.3% the year before that. His 81.8% so far puts him in Giannis Antetokounmpo territory, so it might be fair to expect some drop-off there.
But this, like the mid-range number, could be something that changes things for Tatum. If he can keep finishing at the rim at this rate, or close to it, then he’ll be an unquestioned MVP candidate.
Take all this with a grain of salt. If Tatum shoots 25% against Chicago, then all of this stuff will change a lot.
But the numbers also do paint a clear picture of the early going: Boston’s defense is a work in progress, leaving the offense to carry the load to win games. Tatum and Brown are carrying the offense, with Tatum off to a blistering start worth watching to see how long he can maintain some of this hot shooting and aggressive attacking. Things can change quickly, but there are some ingredients for something special mixed into these numbers.