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BEDARD'S BREAKDOWN FROM ZAPPE'S FIRST START — Breaking down the good and bad (yes, there was some) in Bailey Zappe's first start
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Let's cut right to the chase: after Bailey Zappe's 300-yard performance in a 38-15 win over the Browns on Sunday, should Mac Jones get his job back when he's physically able to start?
Yes, absolutely.
We don't deal with any other factors here like team vibe, buy-in, needing to teach someone a lesson here, etc. — although we will say, the good times better roll against the Lions or Browns no matter who is at QB, or this team is in trouble.
We don't care what is going on around the league (we couldn't even tell you, to be honest), so save your what-about-isms. We rely on the film because, unlike stats and game situations (injuries, short fields on turnovers), the film never lies. We compare what we see on film to the league average for the position, and recent history of the Patriots. But, really, it's about the individual play: did the player do their job, did it take advanced skill to make it a successful play, or could the player have done better. No play is greater than another, unless the score is really out of whack. And, yes, the opponent and the reaction to the play factor into that. Not all 50-yard touchdowns are the same. Not every sack is the fault of the blocker. Context goes into every single play. This is similar, but obviously on a much more rudimentary level, to how coaches evaluate film.
And after his second-straight start, Zappe is still in the career backup category for us — and he's very likely never to move from there. We've been wrong before and we'll be wrong again — and, sure, we could be here — but ask yourself this: if Zappe were available on the open market, what kind of market would he have, what could you get in return, and what kind of contract he would command? Name another franchise player with his skillset? Would you want your team to make him your franchise quarterback and give him a huge contract that weds you to him? His comps, to us, are Chase Daniel, Matt Flynn and Jay Fiedler. Flynn, who was given a huge contract by the Seahawks before quickly being supplanted by rookie Russell Wilson, would be his best-case scenario in terms of contract/opportunity.
Now, it's a different question entirely whether, at some point (even soon), Zappe could give the Patriots a better chance to win a game or string of games than Jones. Zappe has shown better in games than he did in practices this summer. He is very advanced for a rookie with his pocket movement and pocket sense. His eyes never stray from down the field. He knows where his receiver will be and started to manipulate the defense some in this game. Zappe's short, compact motion helps him. He can throw from different arm angles. He has enough arm strength to make most throws from a clean pocket.
But you have to put this in context, especially in regard to Jones:
- Zappe has faced the two worst defenses by DVOA, including a Browns team that was missing its second-best pass rusher (Jadeveon Clowney) and cover man (Denzel Ward). The Lions were just awful on defense, and the Browns weren't much better. Both played a very high percentage of man-to-man coverage, which is easier for QBs against poor defenses. There were very little coverage changes after the snap. Pretty much what Bailey saw before the snap was what he got after the snap. That's very easy for a QB.
- The defenses Jones faced in the first three games were ranked 18.3 on average (including the Dolphins being now 26th due to injuries — they're better than that and were in Week 1). Average pass defense DVOA: 19.3 for Jones, 29.5 for Zappe. All three defenses (MIA, PIT, BAL) against Jones mix their coverages often between pre- and post-snap. It is much more challenging for the QB.
- Zappe has rarely been under duress. Zappe has felt pressure on just 21 percent of his snaps — less than 1 in 4. He has been able to step into virtually all of his throws. That's very important when your arm strength is a limitation — and it is for Zappe, and it's still a question for Jones, which we have asked in the past. Virtually any NFL QB can make a vast majority of throws when they can step into them. The measure of a franchise QB is how you perform under pressure. Zappe has not really gotten sped up. He did a bit in this game after the strip sack, and his accuracy weakened on the next drive with errant throws.
- Jones was under pressure on 33.2 percent of his snaps in the first three games — 1 in 3. Lest we forget that he suffered serious injuries in the first and third games. Six games into his rookie season, Jones was under pressure on 35 percent of his snaps.
- Zappe has yet to trail in either of his starts. While the Patriots never trailed against the Steelers, Jones and the Patriots trailed for more than 26 minutes against both the Dolphins and Ravens.
- Matt Patricia has done a good job of setting up Zappe for success by using the running game to set up the pass, including a high percentage of playaction passes. Zappe has used playaction on 31.6 percent of his throws for 15.3 yards per attempt. Without playaction, he is averaging a pedestrian 5.6 yards per attempt.
- Only 10.8 percent of Jones' dropbacks this season were playaction (9.8 YPA). Jones averaged 7.9 yards per attempt without the aid of playaction. As a rookie, Jones used playaction 26.8 percent of the time (8.8 average; 6.6 without it).
- The Patriots have used much more motion before the snap with Zappe, which not only helps the QB identify coverage but also creates mismatches. The offense was largely stagnant in Jones' three starts.
It's obviously not an apples-to-apples comparison because it's two different seasons, but Jones also faced the Browns last season in Week 10, at home, and delivered a 45-7 victory that was over at halftime (24-7). Patriots led 10-6 at halftime Sunday and were a made extra point way from being a one-score game with 6:17 remaining. Their performances, including our game ratings:
That Browns defense finished the season 11th overall in DVOA and 7th against the pass. Zappe certainly did very well compiling a 5.9 Completion Percentage Above Expectation — sixth in the NFL last week. Last year against the Browns, Jones had a +16.1 to lead all NFL passers that week. Not only did Clowney and Ward play in that game, but did DT Malik Jackson, and LBs Mack Wilson and Anthony Walker (on IR with torn quad this year). Yes, the Patriots had a great rushing game in that one — Sunday was very average — but that also represented Jones' best game of his rookie season according to our film study.
Against the Browns last season, Jones and the Patriots had scoring drives of 83, 5, 99, 92, 47 (Hoyer had one of 95 as well) — 5 drives, 65.2 average. Patriots on Sunday: 63, 87, 75, 40, 19 and 8 — the latter two after turnovers in the final 4:32 that really made the final score impressive. Sunday, even if we add in the 50-yard missed FG drive: 7 for 48.9.
In 2021, the Patriots were 5 of 6 in the red zone, 4 for 4 in goal-to-go against the Browns.
In 2022: 3 of 5, 2 of 3.
And to put Zappe's performance in perspective, and perhaps to remind people of how good Jones was a year ago as a rookie and with many players around him new to the system: Jones had 10 games better than either of Zappe's starts, according to our evaluation at the time. Zappe's starts would have been average for Jones. Among the opponents Jones had a better grade: Dallas, both Miami games, Tampa, the Buffalo playoff game, and Baltimore this season — that's 3 division winners, Miami was 9-8 and Baltimore is 3-3. According to CPAE, Jones has had six starts better than Zappe's.
Do you really think Jones, in one offseason, has fallen dramatically? Or were other factors at play in his and the offense's slow start to the season, like a neophyte playcaller doing it for the first time in a game, and trying to dramatically change how Jones and the offense played despite it being quite effective last season (6th in points, tied for third in combined explosive pass and run plays)? The offense that Zappe has run is basically the system Jones ran as a rookie — with a reliance on the run game, playaction and quick passes. If he's healthy, time to give Jones the keys — and tailor it to his liking. The Patriots have always been about putting their players in position to succeed. That was not done for Jones. Maybe it took getting two QBs knocked out of games and a handcuffed playbook for things to be put in their rightful order.
We show our work around here in written and video form, so here are the eight plus plays and eight minus plays I had for Zappe in this game via coaches film analysis, before we get into unit grades, gamecharts, player ratings and 5 up/4 down:
PLUS PLAYS (8)
1Q: 1-10-NE 22 (2:55) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to D.Parker to NE 36 for 14 yards (M.Emerson).
Does a great job of looking right and firing the ball into tight coverage on the slant.
2Q: 1-10-NE 18 (13:56) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to R.Stevenson to NE 21 for 3 yards (J.Phillips).
Showed off his smarts on this play as he understood the end would be unblocked when the Mike blitzed. He wasn't flustered at all, took a beat and delivered a productive ball sidearm for some positive yards.
2Q: 1-10-CLV 31 (3:40) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete short right.
Evades a possible sack and gets the ball to the line of scrimmage to live another down. Good awareness.
3Q: 2-4-CLV 15 (12:49) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to H.Henry to CLV 2 for 13 yards (G.Delpit).
Not a high degree of difficulty on this throw to the 2-yard line, but Zappe gets bonus points for throwing with anticipation and the ball was perfectly placed.
3Q: 3-2-CLV 2 (11:25) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to T.Thornton for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
We've been over this play. Comes off his first read calmly and then throws with anticipation to Thornton. Protection certainly helped.
3Q: 2-9-NE 44 (3:57) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short left to D.Parker to CLV 49 for 7 yards (M.Emerson).
Really nice out with some heat thrown with perfect timing and placement.
4Q: 3-5-CLV 45 (12:38) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to R.Stevenson to CLV 39 for 6 yards (S.Takitaki).
One of his better plays. Not only does he elude the rush, but Zappe has enough calmness to wait a beat or two to allow Stevenson time to get open. Excellent play.
4Q: 1-15-CLV 44 (11:54) B.Zappe pass deep left to T.Thornton to CLV 23 for 21 yards (J.Johnson).
His best play of the game by far. Steps up to elude the initial rush, keeps climbing the pocket with his eyes downfield with another rusher coming at him, and delivers a perfect pass on a well-covered crossing pass. If Zappe has raised himself in the coaches' eyes, it's because of this play.
MINUS PLAYS (8)
1Q: 3-1-CLV 1 (7:40) M.Cannon reported in as eligible. B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to H.Henry [T.Togiai
PENALTY on NE-H.Henry, Illegal Touch Pass, 0 yards, enforced at CLV 1.
The play in the end zone ... this ball should have been thrown much earlier on two different occasions.
1Q: (:54) (Shotgun) B.Zappe sacked at NE 24 for -8 yards (M.Garrett). FUMBLES (M.Garrett), RECOVERED by CLV-J.Johnson at NE 38. The Replay Official reviewed the fumble ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
We gave Zappe half the sack here because he was just a little too slow getting rid of the ball. A good QB always knows where Myles Garrett is and should know he's being single-blocked by Isaiah Wynn ... need to have a little more urgency here.
2Q: 3-12-NE 42 (11:45) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to H.Henry
Worst pass of the game. Not even close to Henry, although I think it was on purpose. But there was just a three-man rush and Meyers was an option in the deep middle.
2Q: 2-10-CLV 31 (3:34) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete short left to D.Parker (M.Emerson).
A very dangerous slant that was a turnover-worthy play. His eye movement was not ideal on this play, unlike the earlier successful slant.
3Q: 2-2-CLV 2 (11:29) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete short right to T.Thornton (M.Emerson).
The slant at the goalline ... similar to the last one. Could have been an interception.
3Q: 3-2-CLV 49 (3:20) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to R.Stevenson to 50 for -1 yards (J.Johnson).
Thrown with way too much air. Never gave Stevenson a chance to make a play, and could have gotten him killed. Zappe knew it. He clapped his hands after the play.
4Q: 3-9-CLV 11 (9:14) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete short right. PENALTY on NE-B.Zappe, Intentional Grounding, 16 yards, enforced at CLV 11
Had other options and took too long with the ball, then didn't get it to the line of scrimmage. Can't happen.
Also: Delay of Game penalty
NEUTRAL (7)
1Q: 3-7-NE 39 (13:41) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short left to K.Bourne to CLV 44 for 17 yards (J.Johnson; G.Williams)
Thrown under pressure but that's only because Zappe brought it on himself by being a beat late with the ball and not throwing with anticipation.
1Q: 3-9-CLV 43 (11:21) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass deep left to D.Parker to CLV 14 for 29 yards (M.Emerson).
Nicely thrown ball and gave Parker a chance, but this play was made by the receiver. I wouldn't dock him if the pass was intercepted. It's a 50-50 ball for a reason.
2Q: 1-10-NE 25 (7:11) B.Zappe pass deep left to J.Meyers to NE 45 for 20 yards (M.Emerson).
Great route by Meyers and Zappe actually threw a balloon ball that made this play more difficult than it needed to be. Not a minus, but not a plus either.
2Q: 2-10-CLV 31 (3:34) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete short left to D.Parker (M.Emerson)
Not even close to Parker, and that's fine because the Browns were bringing a heavy blitz and no one was open. Fine with the out-of-bounds throw. It wasn't an errant pass.
3Q: 2-9-NE 26 (14:21) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to J.Smith to CLV 21 for 53 yards (M.Emerson).
Good playaction call by Patricia but poor defense and Smith is wide open. Have no problem with making Smith stop to catch it — Zappe was protecting Smith from the safety.
3Q: 3-1-CLV 31 (5:39) M.Cannon reported in as eligible. B.Zappe pass short left to H.Henry for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
Complete coverage bust and Zappe could have planted flowers in the pocket he had so much time.
4Q: 1-10-NE 23 (14:30) B.Zappe pass deep right to J.Meyers pushed ob at 50 for 27 yards (G.Newsome).
Just a tremendous route by Meyers — and well setup by Patricia earlier — after he ran to the inside earlier off the same play. That's playcalling.
Here are the positional ratings against the Browns:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (4 out of 5)
Asked and answered.
Running backs (3 out of 5)
Rhamondre Stevenson had a solid game but his vision wasn't great in this one for some reason. Left a couple plays on the field, but not many. The 31-yard TD was just an awful defensive call by Joe Woods – the kind that gets people fired. The second touchdown was better. The blocking was not great, but Stevenson had runs of 6, 3 and 1 yard that were plus plays for him — they could have been worse.
Receivers (3.5 out of 5)
Both Jakobi Meyers and Hunter Henry had some blocking and penalty issues, but both were productive with their route running — which is aided by playaction (it gives them time to set up the routes). Keep doing it. Meyers had two outstanding routes for big plays. ... Jonnu Smith broke two tackles for big gains. .... Tyquan Thornton flashed some nice speed and had one outstanding vertical route that Zappe didn't see.
Offensive line (2 out of 5)
Not a good day at the office for this group outside David Andrews and Mike Onwenu, who had clean sheets. Both Trent Brown and the right tackles had issues with Myles Garrett all day, despite getting a ton of chips. ... Cole Strange was largely solid, as this was his second-best game (Lions). He has 3-4 plays a game where he either gets tossed, or is way overaggressive and whiffs. Andrews helps Strange a lot if he is uncovered. He always tilts to Strange. ... The worry with Marcus Cannon is that his feet are really slow getting into pass sets. Cannon is the better run blocking, but it's pretty close pass blocking.
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
Patriots played a lot of Bear front and blitzed linebackers to mess up the Browns' excellent zone-blocking scheme and Kevin Stefanski never adjusted. It's not a new tactic. Also doesn't help when the defense is not afraid of your QB or your receivers. ...Deatrich Wise really made the opening INT to Kyle Dugger, aside from Jacoby Brissett being 10 minutes late with the throw. An awful QB play. There were a lot of them in this game. No wonder the Patriots cut bait after one year of Brissett. ... Wise had just a whale of a game after a few quiet ones. He was just relentless with the pass rush. ... Matthew Judon got a lot of attention and was really quiet for a while and then, ho-hum, he winds up with six impactful plays (four in second half). One of his better run-defense games. ...Patriots go contributions from everyone. ... Carl Davis is no Vince Wilfork with the rock in his hands. Stick to two-gapping.
Linebackers (4 out of 5)
Really good, if quiet game from this group as much of the run defense and pressure gave from the big boys up front. ... Mack Wilson didn't get much time against his ex-team but he popped with four impactful plays. He's shown a knack for timing up his twists off the motion up front. ... Jahlani Tavai is Mr. Rock Solid — he doesn't make many plays, but he certainly doesn't mess up many. ... This was Ja'Whaun Bentley's type of game, where he can just go forward.
Secondary (3 out of 5)
The coverage from this group continues to impress, even when they give up some plays — Browns made a few that could not be defended. Browns also dropped four passes. ... Due to the good underneath coverage, Brissett led the league in Intended Air Yards. That couldn't have been the plan. ... Man, Jack Jones can cover. He had no glaring miscues in this one, which shows he's learning, and still broke up three passes. ... Kyle Dugger continues to make some impressive plays around the line, like blowing up Kareem Hunt on a blitz pickup, but he also gives up plays, like the 33-yarder and another 11 yards when he turned around in zone coverage. He's basically Patrick Chung with more explosiveness — all forward and man coverage, but struggles in space. ... Adrian Phillips made some big plays, like the pass tackle on third down to set up the failed sneak, but he can be overaggressive and give up plays.
FIVE UP
Deatrich Wise: Started things off right with a pressure on the opening INT and never relented.
Matthew Judon: A quietly dominating game against good tackles.
Christian Barmore: Shame he got hurt, because he was on the way to his best game of the season.
Jack Jones: He would be annoying to run routes against. He's always there.
Mack Wilson: Saved his best for his former team.
FOUR DOWN
Isaiah Wynn: I'll say this — there are worse right tackles in the league. Just give him some help, and Zappe could have gotten rid of it faster.
Marcus Cannon: His lack of foot speed could be an issue with more playing time.
Trent Brown: Rate to see the Big Fella struggle, and he did against Myles Garrett. Everyone does.
Shaun Wade: Only played 9 snaps so this is a little unfair, but he was the only defender with a negative rating dating back two games.