SUBSCRIBE HERE!
_____________________________
Everybody's got a take on Bailey Zappe. Comes with the territory when you talk about backup quarterbacks, especially young ones.
It's still extremely early in his career, and players often make progress over the course of their careers — they are not static, they are either improving or regressing. But after his first career start, here are my thoughts:
- I've been wrong before and I'll be wrong again, but Zappe still projects to be a solid backup/spot starter over the balance of his career. His lack of height (6-foot, 1/2 inches) and arm strength will ultimately hold him back. He reminds me most of Chase Daniel (6-feet), who was undrafted out of Missouri in 2009, but with a slightly lesser arm. Daniels is currently in his 12th year with his sixth different team (currently in his second season with the Chargers). He is 2-3 as a starter. He has made $36 million in his career. It's a career not to sneeze at.
- Zappe's best attribute is he's unflappable, even under pressure. Always keeps his cool. Doesn't hurt that he's 23 years old (and started for four years), same age that Mac Jones was as a rookie. That's on the slightly higher end of the rookie age scale.
- In his first start, Zappe had a confluence of factors in his favor: an opponent with the league's worst defense by just about every metric — one that lost defensive backs at an alarming rate; he was absurdly well-protected (just 4 QB pressures allowed; 15.4% pressure rate) and often given extra pass blockers; Patriots always had the lead; a dominant rushing game (35 rushes to 21 passes; 5.0 rush average); the defense produced a touchdown — the offense didn't produce their own until almost the fourth quarter. Basically, everything went right for the Patriots and Zappe.
- Because of how poor the Lions' defense was, the Patriots largely were able to avoid third downs, and certainly long yardage situations. Of the eight real third downs they faced (one was in kneel-down mode), New England had over 5 yards to go just twice — both weren't converted and led to field goals. The rest: 3rd and 5, 4, 1 (run didn't convert), 3, 3 (run didn't convert).
- Coaches know their players best from what they see in practice. They make their gameplan decisions based on what they see at practice. The Patriots had four drives where they had first downs at the Lions' 21-, 21-, 19- and 17-yard lines — red zone, scoring territory. Not only did they not throw into the end zone once all game, they had just 12 plays on those drives — never making another first down. Of those 12 plays, just four were passes and the combined air yardage from QB to target was minus-5 yards (-5, 6, -6 and 0). Again, let me remind you this was against an atrocious defense, and the last two drives came with leads of 16 and 26 points.
When it comes to judging Zappe, his ceiling, at least for this season, and whether he's any danger at all to Mac Jones, all of that should tell you a lot.
But if you want more, here are the plus plays (five) and minus plays (six) that I had for Zappe in this game via coaches film analysis, before we get into unit grades, gamecharts, player ratings and 5 up/5 down:
PLUS PLAYS (5)
2Q 1-10-NE 30 (9:21) B.Zappe scrambles right end ran ob at NE 35 for 5 yards (D.Elliott).
Calmly avoided Aidan Hutchinson like it was nothing. Many QBs — like the one on the other sideline — would have crumbled and made a turnover-worth play. Zappe got them to 2nd and 5.
2Q 1-10-NE 13 (1:46) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to J.Meyers pushed ob at NE 28 for 15 yards (D.Elliott).
2Q 2-7-NE 31 (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to H.Henry to NE 39 for 8 yards (M.Hughes).
First play was another one where Zappe climbed the pocket, avoided the rush and hit Meyers for a very nice gain. On the second, Zappe saw the trap coverage from the Lions and threw it back-shoulder to Henry, for a first down, to keep him out of harm's way. Many a jittery young QB a) would have thrown a pick here; b) thrown the receiver right into the defender to get blasted. Very mature play.
3Q 3-3-NE 41 (5:09) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to H.Henry to NE 47 for 6 yards (D.Elliott).
3Q 1-10-DET 24 (1:57) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass deep right to J.Meyers for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
By far Zappe's best play — and his only true full-field read — where he initially looked left, kept going through his progressions, bought a little time for Henry to make himself available, and then uncorked a strong pass from the other hashmark. An all-around excellent play.
We brokedown the TD more in-depth here.
MINUS PLAYS (6 WITH A BONUS)
1Q 2-9-DET 20 (9:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short right to D.Harris to DET 19 for 1 yard (W.Harris).
I'll somewhat give Zappe a pass on these two plays because they are at the end of his first drive as a starter, and it's a scoreless game so I understand being conservative (though this redzone tightness was a theme throughout this game, as we illustrated).
Zappe immediately throws to Damien Harris under no duress. For some reason, Zappe thought the Lions were in man coverage and he was throwing to Harris via a pick play by Hunter Henry. But the Lions are in zone, waiting for this play and it goes nowhere.
1Q 3-8-DET 19 (8:57) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete short left to H.Henry (A.Anzalone).
On third down, Zappe throws a good ball to Henry — so it's not a bad read — but he's covered very well. If Zappe just bought a little more time, Jakobi Meyers was open for a touchdown and even put his hand up to boot.
2Q 1-10-NE 40 (8:00) M.Cannon reported in as eligible. B.Zappe FUMBLES (Aborted) at NE 35, recovered by NE-R.Stevenson at NE 36. R.Stevenson to NE 36 for no gain (D.Elliott). Penalty on NE-K.Bourne, Illegal Formation, declined.
This play was FUBAR from the start. It appears that every player, from the linemen to the receivers and Stevenson all thought this was going to be a playaction shot to the end zone ... except Zappe, who either made a bad fake, or just forgot the play and tried to hand it off. This could have been a complete and total disaster if the ball didn't bounce back to Stevenson. Zappe appeared to be 100 percent at fault.
3Q 1-10-NE 25 (15:00) M.Cannon reported in as eligible. B.Zappe pass incomplete deep right to J.Meyers.
Patriots take a play-action shot on the first play after halftime, but Zappe forces this and it's a turnover-worthy play — he's lucky it wasn't picked off. DeVante Parker was the much better read on this play.
3Q 3-11-DET 20 (10:54) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass short left to K.Bourne to DET 19 for 1 yard (M.Hughes).
This is another FUBAR play. The line and Bourne think this is a tunnel screen, but the receivers and Henry (who is completely lost even before the play) all think this is a normal pass play. This is the QB not having his unit on the same page. Henry ends up open and with his hands over his head, confused. Zappe tells everyone he alerted the play.
4Q: 1-10-NE 9 (12:45) (Shotgun) B.Zappe pass incomplete deep left to T.Thornton.
Another shot play, and I don't mind the Patriots trying a play as a rep for Thornton, but the cornerback was in perfect position and this play had no chance. Meyers, on the other hand, was open across the middle.
4Q: 3-3-NE 16 (11:59) (Shotgun) R.Stevenson left end pushed ob at NE 14 for -2 yards (D.Elliott). — BONUS?
I didn't officially mark Zappe down for this because I don't know how much control he has at the line, but the Patriots ran a play into a terrible look since the Lions have five defenders against three blockers (even if you don't count the nose tackle). As a result, Stevenson is totally corralled on the toss left. The play should have been checked to an inside run to the right, where the Patriots had great numbers. This normally falls under the purview of the QB in this system.
Here are the positional ratings against the Lions:
OFFENSE
Quarterback (3 out of 5)
Think we've covered it.
Running backs (5 out of 5)
One of the best all-around games from a back I've ever seen. And I think I may have to give the fumble to Zappe because I think he was one wrong on that play. Not only did Rhamondre Stevenson run terrific, but had him for four flawlessly executed blitz pickups that were not easy. His only negative: turning the wrong way on a screen pass.
Receivers (2.5 out of 5)
Meyers was terrific, and it was nice to see Henry involved again, but there were a lot of poor plays out of this group, including a dropped interception by Nelson Agholor (now has two drops, two fumbles and an INT through five games), two penalties for Kendrick Bourne and three minus plays from LJ Humphrey in very limited time (hallelujah).
Offensive line (4 out of 5)
GREAT pass-blocking game out of this group with only four pressures allowed (2.5 from Isaiah Wynn), but a subpar run blocking game (38 percent stuff rate is very high) that was only made better by Stevenson. ... Fourth straight very good game out of Trent Brown. ... He still has some issues in the run game, but this was Cole Strange's best game by far. Not exactly a tough game pass blocking for this group considering the Patriots didn't want Zappe to hold it very long, but Strange didn't allow a pressure. ... David Andrews' best game to date with a clean sheet.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
DEFENSE
Defensive line (5 out of 5)
The Patriots' defense annually has one or two games a year where they manhandle an inferior foe all the way around, and that was this game as I had the defense for 47 plus plays and only 12 minus plays — an astounding ratio. Not one player had a negative rating. ... Yes, they got a bit gashed in the run game, but I thought most of it was on the safeties and linebackers. ... Patriots pressured Goff at an astounding 62%. Some of it came in the second half via the blitz (seven with the score in their favor vs. three in the first half) and they attacked the Lions' two guards with stunts and pressures. ... Matthew Judon (plus-9) was just dominant from start to finish, and that's probably because he only played 55 percent of snaps as it appears the Patriots are, as opposed to last season, showing interest in preserving their best player (by far). ... Josh Uche and Deatrich Wise got some junk time pressure. ... Christian Barmore and Davon Godchaux were quiet.
Linebackers (3.5 out of 5)
Ja'Whaun Bentley had one of his more impactful games — he has these when the Patriots aren't all that worried about the QB — but he also had some issues against the run and in coverage. ... Jahlani Tavai was rock-solid against his former team. Not really noteworthy against the Lions. ... Mack Wilson made a sneaky big play to knock Goff out short of the sticks to force the first of six failed fourth downs. ... Raekwon McMillan looked promising in his return.
Secondary (3.5 out of 5)
Bit of a mixed bag. Jack Jones is Mr. Boom or Bust. Had the pick and helped break up another three passes. But he also got turned around on two long third-down conversions, and another 11-yard pass. ... Kyle Dugger had a very good game, which he often does against inferior opponents. Need him to be dominant against the formidable ones. ... Myles Bryant had a nice bounce-back game.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
FIVE UP
Matthew Judon: Flawless in this one, and I like the preservation plan.
Rhamondre Stevenson: Carried the offense.
Jakobi Meyers: Carried the passing offense.
David Andrews: Perfect game, dominant in the run game.
Kyle Dugger: Showed improved coverage and they need his athletic impact on a full-time basis.
FOUR DOWN
Nelson Agholor: A lot of bad things are happening when he is targeted. Might be time to be inactive.
Lil'Jordan Humphrey: Played 14 snaps and had 1.5 stuff runs and a penalty.
Isaiah Wynn: In five games, he's allowed 16 pressures and he's a minus-19.
Kendrick Bourne: Two penalties to show for his increased playing time.