Each year, MLBTradeRumors.com estimates salary arbitration figures for players with anywhere from three to five-plus years of service time, and each years, their projections are startlingly accurate. Not 100 percent on the number, mind you, but very much in the ballpark. MLB executives -- off the record, of course -- marvel at their ability to project where salaries are going to land.
On Monday, MLBTradeRumors.com published its annual predictions. Among those are 11 members of the Red Sox. (For comparison's sake, that's about average for the industry. The Tampa Bay Rays have the most with 19, and four teams are tied for the fewest with six).
Here's a look at the 11 Sox players, with their salaries from 2022, MLBTR projections for 2023 and some forecasts of our own:
Ryan Brasier: 2022: $1.4 million/2023 projected: $2.3 million.
Comment: Brasier was non-tendered last year, before agreeing to a $1.4 million deal. Don't be surprised if the same thing happens. After the season he had (5.78 ERA), the Red Sox won't want to be locked in to paying in excess of $2 million.
Rafael Devers: 2022: $11.1 million/2023 projected: $16.9 million
Comment: In an ideal world, the Red Sox will negotiate a long-term extension with Devers after the first of the year. But it's possible that doesn't happen until after his 2023 salary is either negotiated or arrived at via a hearing. If you're wondering, no this won't be the most the Red Sox have ever paid an arbitration-eligible player. That distinction belongs to (gulp) Mookie Betts, who signed a $27 million deal for 2020, about a month before the Sox traded him to the Dodgers.
Abraham Almonte: 2022: $750,000 (estimated); 2023 projected: $900,000
Comment: It remains a mystery why Almonte got so much playing time in September, but it spoke to the lack of outfield depth in the organization. With Rob Refsnyder expected back as a fourth outfielder, it would seem there's no spot for Almonte here. It's far more likely that he gets non-tendered and perhaps invited back on a minor league deal.
Nick Pivetta: 2022: $2.65 million: 2023 projected: $5.9 million.
Comment: Pivetta led the Red Sox in innings and starts, though he was wildly inconsistent. He stands to more than double his salary from last year to next, but given how unsettled the Red Sox' rotation is, the $5.9 million figure isn't outrageous.
Franchy Cordero; 2022: $725,000 (estimated); 2023 projected: $1.5 million.
Comment: Cordero's future with the Red Sox is very much unsettled. First base is now blocked by Triston Casas and his inability to produce with any degree of consistency makes him, at most a fifth-outfield-type, or an up-and-down guy. The $1.5 million won't bust any budgets, but he could easily be non-tendered and re-signed at a lower rate. Some in the organization still believe in his skills.
Alex Verdugo: 2022: $3.55 million; 2023 projected: $6.9 million.
Comment: Verdugo had a weird season. He had 38 doubles and didn't strike out much. But he also offered little power (12 homers) and his outfield defense was spotty. Alex Cora seemed to put him on notice on the final day of the season, pushing him to be better.
Rob Refsnyder: 2022: $720,000 (estimated); 2023 projection: $1.6 million.
Comment: Refnsyder stands to more than double his money from a year ago, but his figure is relatively modest, and not at all out-of-line for someone who crushed lefty pitching and played as well as Refsndyer did coming off the bench.
Christian Arroyo: 2022: $1.2 million; 2023 projection: $2.2 million.
Comment: Arroyo could see a pay bump of $1 million. He supplied important depth at a number of positions and hit well, too. On one hand, $2.2 million is starting to get expensive for a role player; on the other, the Red Sox don't have anyone on their roster as versatile and productive.
Josh Taylor: 2022: $1.025 million; 2023 projection: $1.2 million.
Comment: Taylor missed the entire year with a back injury, but still gets a full year of service time and a slight. ($75,000 raise). In the second half of the season, he completely fell off the team's radar, and while they could use a lefty in the bullpen (Matt Strahm, the only other, is eligible for free agency), it's hard to believe he'll be tendered a contract.
Reese McGuire: 2022: $722,400; 2023 projection: $1.3 million.
Comment: McGuire could go into the season as the projected No. 1 catcher, or part of a tandem, but either way, the $1.3 million is fairly reasonable for someone with three years of service time -- especially one who exceeded all expectations with the bat after being acquired at the trade deadline.
Yu Chang: 2025: $705,400; 2023 projection: $900,000
Comment: Chang's presence in the final month was a little strange. The Red Sox claimed him on waivers from Tampa Bay, and became his fourth team in 2022 alone. Versatile, yes, and athletic, but he did little to distinguish himself. He, too, seems to be a strong non-tender candidate.