Patriots enter today's contest against the Lions at 1-3 ... right where we expected them to be.
If you were an optimist, you had the Patriots at 2-2. If you were a cynic, 0-4.
Now comes the meaty part of the schedule. The Patriots have to go on a run here over the next seven games — all very winnable, starting with Detroit.
For the record, we had them winning the next four games to get back into the thick of things.
There is some good news for the Patriots. The Colts and Vikings games are no longer quite as daunting as anticipated, although every team has the ability to improve, just like the Patriots. And it no longer appears that 11 wins are going to be needed to get into the AFC playoffs, which is what I thought before the season. Ten wins should do it, and nine wins could — provided the Patriots beef up their conference record (1-2). Heck, a win today could jump them from 14th in the conference up near 10th — and that's just one win. I expect them to be in the playoff picture at 5-3 or 4-4 after this easier stretch.
Right now, FootballOutsiders.com has the Patriots with a 20.4 percent chance to make the playoffs. The pecking order:
Bills 94.9, 12.3 mean wins
Chiefs 78.3, 10.7
Ravens 78.4, 10.4
Jaguars 64.0, 9.0
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Dolphins 61.7, 9.4
Chargers 58.2, 9.3
Bengals 40.8, 8.2
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Broncos 58.2, 8.5
Browns 37.0, 8.2
Titans, 35.1, 7.6
Jets 24.7, 7.5
Raiders 23.5, 7.3
Patriots 20.4, 7.1
Better news for the Patriots: They have the Bengals, Browns, Jets (twice) and Raiders all left on their schedule. Sweep those games, and you're sitting pretty in the AFC.
But, look, a lot can and will change with 13 more games left in the season. The Patriots aren't good enough to start looking down the road — they need to worry about winning each game in front of them, because they could lose any of them due to a lack of distinguishing talent.
Then, like last season, it's put up or shut up time.
There's no looking ahead at this point, but we can look back to give out some awards — positive and negative — over the first four games of the season, and track how our preseason picks are looking:
NFL AND PATRIOTS AWARD WINNERS
Most Valuable Player
Preseason: Matthew Judon
Now: Judon
Leads the team with 14 total QB pressures, and the next closest is Christian Barmore with five. Once again, he is the Patriots' pass rush. Surprisingly, he does not have a stuffed run yet.
Least Valuable Player
Mack Wilson, LB
Among non-offensive lineman (because their grades come out harder), Wilson has a minus-10 for the season in our plus/minus grading. And you wonder why Jamie Collins is back? Cole Strange and Isaiah Wynn aren't far off, even with their positions.
Offensive player of the year
Preseason: Rhamondre Stevenson, RB
Now: Damien Harris, RB
Stevenson is right behind him. But Harris has been the most steady performer to date.
Worst Offensive Player
James Ferentz, C/G
Not really fair because he's only played eight snaps, but he was minus-2 on them.
Defensive player of the year
Preseason: Christian Barmore
Now: Jonathan Jones, CB
This was always a non-Judon award. Lawrence Guy and Deatrich Wise were also in the discussion. Jones has largely been a revelation moving to the outside.
Worst Defensive Player
Daniel Ekuale, DT
A bit unfair because he's only played two games and he was solid against the Ravens — but he has a rough outing against the run against Green Bay.
Offensive rookie of the year
Preseason: Cole Strange
Now: Strange, by default.
He could be overtaken by some Zappe Fev-ah if he delivers some Ws here. Strange is doing fine for four games into his career, but he is second on the team in pressures (10.5) and first in stuffs allowed (five).
Defensive rookie of the year
Preseason: Jack Jones
Now: Jones, by default.
He did earn it against the Packers in his first extended playing time.
Comeback player of the year
Presason: Raekwon McMillan
Now: Marcus Cannon
He's only played 25 snaps in one game, but he could be your new right tackle coming off his couch.
Assistant coach of the year
Preseason: DeMarcus Covington, DL
Now: Mike Pellegrino, CBs
It's still early, but that group has been better than advertised to date.
Biggest Surprise (offense)
Nothing. Has anyone really surprised on the offense so far? I would say no.
Biggest Disappointment (offense)
Take your pick:
Mac Jones' play via Matt Patricia
Kendrick Bourne's usage
Hunter Henry's usage
Using a blocking WR (LJ Humphrey)
Isaiah Wynn
Allowing two QBs to be knocked out of games
Biggest Surprise (defense)
Jonathan Jones playing like a No. 1 CB, and Wise's 5 total QB pressures.
Biggest Disappointment (defense)
Christian Barmore's lack of impact. He's still tied for second with 5 total QB pressures and he's not playing poorly, they just need double the impact.
Patriots.com
NICKEL PACKAGE
1. As a result of the investigation into Tua Tagovailoa's concussion, the league and NFLPA have altered the protocol, starting today. "Specifically, the term “ataxia” has been added to the mandatory “no-go” symptoms. “Ataxia” is defined as abnormality of balance/stability, motor coordination or dysfunctional speech caused by a neurological issue. In other words, if a player is diagnosed with “ataxia” by any club or neutral physician involved in the application of the Concussion Protocol, he will be prohibited from returning to the game, and will receive the follow-up care required by the Protocol.
2. Keep an eye on Carolina this week, if they lose to the 49ers to drop to 1-4 and the offense still can't get going. Some in league circles think owner Dave Tepper could fire Matt Rhule, who hasn't gotten an impact from new OC Ben McAdoo. "Well, when you look at it, I was brought in here to make an impact, right? And it hasn’t happened yet,” McAdoo told reporters this week. “Now, that doesn’t mean we’re discouraged. We’re four games in, right? So, we got another game this week, and we’re excited at the opportunity we have this week, and we have a tremendous opponent coming in here this week.”
3. Picked up pieces from assorted film reviews: Geno Smith is no joke with the Seahawks. He made a lot of tough throws against the Lions last week. He's completed 77.3 percent of his passes this year. ... The Broncos' defense, when they were healthy against the Raiders, was one of the fastest units I've every seen on all three levels. If they could just get some QB play, they'd be dangerous. ... If the Raiders had a better record, DE Maxx Crosby would be getting defensive player of the year chatter. He is their pass rush. Chandler Jones has largely done nothing, but he is coming on a little. Nate Hobbs is the best CB you've never heard of for Vegas. He'll get a chance to show out in their Monday night showdown with the Chiefs. Vegas' linebackers have been a big issue.
4. I'm excited to see Pat The Patriot back on the helmets today, but guess who isn't? "It's a colorful uniform and a colorful helmet," Bill Belichick said this week. "But honestly we need to worry more about how we perform against the Lions and not worry about the jerseys and helmets. Let's let somebody else worry about that."
5. Leave it to Belichick to start his Lions breakdown with ... their special teams. "Special teams is a real strength of the team. Obviously [Jack] Fox, he’s one of the best punters in the league. He's outstanding. [Chris] Board, that's the best special teams player we'll play against all year. He's a great player." Way to sell tickets, Bill.