GREEN BAY, Wis. — Bill Belichick would like you to believe that the Patriots only lost to the Packers, 27-24 in overtime on Sunday, due to the greatness of Aaron Rodgers.
He beat us over the head with it after the game.
"In the end, Rodgers was too good," Belichick said. "He made some throws that only Rodgers can make. We had pretty good coverage on some of those and he was just too smart, too good, too accurate. In the end, he got us. We couldn’t quite do enough in the other areas to quite offset it. But I thought we really competed well. A lot of guys competed well. Obviously, we just came up a little bit short. In the end, Aaron got us on too many things. I thought we did a pretty good job on him, but there was just enough for him to take advantage of or make a couple of great throws that we couldn’t quite cover."
Later...
"As I said, in the end, Rodgers was just too good. He is great, great player and he made some great plays," said Belichick, whose team fell to 1-3 and is now in last place in the AFC East by itself after the Jets improved to 2-2. "That was the difference in the game.”
Was it, really?
Rodgers himself said he played "terrible" in the first half, including a pick-six that was so badly thrown that Jack Jones nearly overran the play. Rodgers' 89.1 rating was worse than Brian Hoyer (92.4) and rookie Bailey Zappe (107.4).
Zappe even had a better QB rating (118.8) than Rodgers (110.8) in the fourth quarter.
It might be more fruitful for Belichick to look at his red zone defense, which allowed three TDs in three drives. The week prior, in another close loss to the Ravens, the Patriots allowed five TDs in five red-zone trips.
Maybe Belichick might want to take a closer look at an offensive line — or, maybe, just right tackle Isaiah Wynn — whose "protection" has forced the team to play three QBs in the first four games, and will likely cause them to scramble to sign another QB on Monday. That's the kind of stuff that goes on in ... Washington.
Or, maybe, Belichick might want to look in the mirror and declare that he himself cost the team a victory in this one due to his conservative decisions on fourth down, and the final drive in regulation.
That will be the topic of discussion come Monday morning at the local Dunks.
Is that fair?
Let's look at the three situations in this game:
1. 4th and 1 at Green Bay 46 with 5:53 left in the second quarter
2. 3rd and 3 at New England 9 with 1:01 left in fourth quarter
3. 4th and 5 at Green Bay 46 with 6:54 left in overtime
Play No. 1: 4th and 1 at Green Bay 46 with 5:53 left in the second quarter
Situation: It says 4th and 1 on the playsheet, but this is really 4th and 2 yards. This was the second drive for Zappe. His rollout pass to Kendrick Bourne three plays earlier was not close. He checked it down to Henry here.
Reasons to go for it: Patriots are trailing 7-3 at this point. They just held Rodgers to a three and out. Maybe you feel like you're going to need a lot of points in this game against Rodgers.
Reasons not to go for it: At just about 2 yards, the Patriots were likely going to have to throw here. Do you really feel good about putting Zappe in this spot, especially before halftime when you can group with him and talk some things through?
What happens: Belichick elects to punt. Jake Bailey hangs one to the 9-yard line. Patriots hold Rodgers on the next possession and Marcus Jones' 29-yard punt return gets New England to the 50. So Belichick ends up looking good here.
Right or wrong choice?: I think Belichick made the right call here, and what happened after and the way the game played out backs him up.
Play No. 2: 3rd and 3 at New England 9 with 1:01 left in fourth quarter
Situation: With the score tied at 24, the Patriots were backed up to their own 2-yard line with 1:52 to play. On first down, Rhamondre Stevenson ran for 2 yards, and Green Bay burned their final timeout. On 2nd down, the Patriots ran Stevenson for 5 yards, and the clock was at 1:39. Patriots ended up letting the clock run, and taking their second timeout with 1:01 remaining. That brought up 3rd and 3 and the Patriots had one timeout left.
Reasons to go for it: Do you really want to go to overtime against Rodgers in Lambeau Field?
Reasons not to go for it: The Packers just burned their final timeout since Matt LaFleur made the awful decision to challenge the Romeo Doubs drop in the end zone. That was to the advantage of the Patriots. Now they can basically run the clock out, deep in their own territory and get to overtime.
Do you really want Zappe throwing deep in his own end in this situation with limited reps since the season started?
What happens: Patriots run again for 2 yards, and the Packers don't have enough time at 4 seconds to win the game.
Right or wrong choice?: On the third down run, Belichick made the right call. This is no place to go for it, not with the overtime rules now changed.
Really, Belichick made this decision when he burned the second timeout after second down. I don't think the Patriots needed to do that, but perhaps that is Matt Patricia's inexperience showing. They very quickly decided they weren't going to run a play and waited for the playclock to wind down. That could have been Belichick's call. You could have had a real decision if the Patriot just ran a play on second down. They were armed with two timeouts. You could have been a little more aggressive there.
But with one timeout left with Zappe ... the odds were long on 3rd down they would be able to get into field-goal position.
Play No. 3: 4th and 5 at Green Bay 46 with 6:54 left in overtime
Situation: Patriots held the Packers to a three-and-out to start overtime, and had great field position after a 20-yard Marcus Jones punt return. On first down, Damien Harris gained 5 yards. On second down, the Patriots ran wide zone to the left and were bottled up for no gain. On third down, Zappe spun around under heavy pressure and was nearly intercepted throwing to Hunter Henry.
Reasons to go for it: There's 6:54 left. There's a chance Rodgers is not going to give you the ball back. Your defense has largely played well. You're in Green Bay territory. Even if you don't get it, the Packers need about 17 yards to get into makeable territory for Mason Crosby.
The players have battled their asses off to get you to this point where you can decide the game and leave with a victory. Would you rather go down swinging, or roll the dice against Rodgers?
How many times is the defense going to hold Rodgers down? Haven't you pushed the limit on that?
Reasons not to go for it: Zappe nearly just threw an interception. How many plays has Zappe even repped that are left on the playcall sheet?
The defense has stopped the Packers on the last two drives without points dating back to the fourth quarter. They can do it again. The chances are low that Rodgers is going to drive them into field-goal range from the 10-yard line. The Packers need about 53 yards to get into field-goal range. Only three of their 13 drives have gone that far to this point (23 percent).
Again, it's Bailey Zappe. He didn't even dress for the game last week.
What happens: Patriots punt to the Packers' 10-yard line. The Patriots' defense only forces one third down — a 3rd and 1 that's converted on an 11-yard pass to Randall Cobb against Myles Bryant.
Right or wrong choice?
This is the million-dollar question. I totally get saying, 'Go for it.' The Patriots have played well in the second half, have put themselves into this position. The defense held on the first series, you got the ball at midfield. Just go for it. What do you really have to lose? No one expected you to win this game, and here you have a chance to do that.
But I tend to side with Belichick here. The odds were better that Rodgers would not be able to drive the field against the Patriots — which he did, and it led to Belichick fawning over Rodgers. That's why Belichick said those things. He bet that Rodgers couldn't do it, with this group of receivers, and Belichick lost. Instead of saying that, Belichick just praised Rodgers.
Really, it wasn't the fourth-down decision that was the issue — it was the second-down call, the wide zone run that went for nothing.
The Patriots had gained 5 yards on first down. The Packers would be aggressive as hell trying to keep the Patriots out of field goal range. They would be running downhill, and it would be the perfect time to call another playaction pass.
But Patricia went to the wide zone. He ruined the down where there was more run/pass uncertainty for the defense. Getting stuffed put them in pass-only mode, and Green Bay was ready for it.
Don't quibble about the fourth-down decision, which was right in the moment.
Take issue with the second down playcall.