Yes, I know, I know.
On the face of it, the notion of the Red Sox being legitimate bidders for Aaron Judge, the free agent expected to land the biggest contract of all this winter, seems ludicrous.
If the Red Sox couldn't sign Mookie Betts, and to date, haven't extended either of their own free agents-to-be -- Xander Bogaerts and Rafael Devers -- what makes you think they're going to be seriously involved with a free agent from elsewhere? Shouldn't they learn to walk before they run?
The skepticism is well-earned and not without merit. Though the team's payroll remains among the top five or so in the game, and the Sox have easily cleared the $200 million plateau in six of the last seven full-length seasons. But under Chaim Bloom, the Red Sox have only once paid a free agent more than $8 million annually. Bloom is notorious for emphasizing player development and largely eschewing expensive, long-term contracts. He prioritizes a sustainable farm system, while augmenting the major league roster with the occasional depth free agent.
And those points are all valid. If nothing else, Bloom will have his hands full trying to stop Bogaerts from opting out of his current deal in November, then turn his attention to Devers, who will be entering the final year of team control in 2023.
With all that on his plate -- and the likelihood that holding onto both Bogaerts and Devers would cost the Red Sox a half billion dollars or more -- why would Bloom get involved with Judge?
Well, here are a few reasons.
1. Judge is a generational talent.
Judge isn't likely to just establish an American League record for homers in a season. He's also a pure hitter. As of Saturday, he led MLB in the following categories: on-base percentage, slugging percentage, OPS, runs scored, total bases, RBI, runs created, intentional walks, at-bats per homers and WAR.
But he's not just a supreme offensive weapon. He's also stolen 16 bases in 19 attempts and been an above-average defender in the outfield.
In short, Judge is the complete package, as his 9.1 WAR indicates. There's nothing he can't do.
As for Judge's seemingly mediocre performance at Fenway over the years -- his two-homer game this past week notwithstanding -- chalk it up to a small sample size. Someone of his power, strength and ability will be a force wherever he plays.
And while some players are ill-suited for the pressures and expectations that come with playing in Boston, I think we can safely say that won't apply here. If Judge can play in New York, he can play here.
Plus, look at how he's responded this year when he turned down a huge contract and bet on himself.
2. He plays a position that is thin in the Red Sox player development system.
The Red Sox have plenty of top prospects in the middle infield, including Marcelo Mayer, Mikey Romero, Nick Yorke, and Matthew Lugo. They have power options at the corner infield spots in Blaze Jordan and Niko Kavadas. They have some elite pitching prospects in Brayan Bello and Bryan Mata.
But other than Ceddanne Rafaela, a hybrid who's played both infield and outfield at Double A, the only blue-chip outfield prospect in the system is Miguel Bleis, who is all of 18 years old, having not yet graduated from the Florida Complex League. He's seen as a five-tool talent, but according to most evaluators, he's probably three full years -- minimum -- from reaching the big leagues.
At the major league level, the Red Sox have Kiké Hernandez and Alex Verdugo under control, along with a depth piece like Rob Refsnyder. That trio isn't about to make a generation of Red Sox fans forget about Rice, Lynn and Evans.
Judge would change that. He's athletic enough to play Fenway's spacious and demanding right field.
3. Signing Judge would be a two-fer.
Getting a player of Judge's talent would be a coup, no matter where he was coming from. He's almost certainly going to be named A.L. MVP in another seven or so weeks. Imagine the bounce in ticket sales, sponsorships, marketing opportunities and TV ratings boost Judge would provide.
Now, add to that the notion that the Red Sox would be greatly improving themselves while, at the same time, weakening their biggest rivals.
Think the Red Sox-Yankee rivalry has cooled too much? Sad that the outright hostility that used to exist between the franchise has largely dissipated.
If anything could generate the heat between Boston and New York, it would be stealing the Yankees' top player, coming off a record-setting, MVP season.
Since the dawn of free agency, the Red Sox have been on the losing end of a handful of players switching teams. Luis Tiant, Wade Boggs, Johnny Damon and Jacoby Ellsbury left Boston for the Bronx. By then, both Boggs and Tiant were in the twilight of their careers. Damon has four good seasons with the Yanks and was part of the 2009 championship team, the Yankees' last. Ellsbury had one decent year, then, surprise, surprise, was limited by injuries before the Yankees bought him out of the final few years of his deal.
The list of impactful Yankees coming directly to Boston is far smaller. There was, um, Mike Torrez, at the outset of free agency. And the Sox tried, unsuccessfully, to lure Bernie Williams, but ultimately failed.
And that's about it.
Think of what the atmosphere would be like next year when the Red Sox visited the Bronx for the first time. The only negative is that next year, MLB will play a more balanced schedule with just 13 games between division rivals, rather than the current 19.
But, oh, what games those would be.
4. Signing Judge would send a clear message to the fan base.
Since trading rather extending Betts, the narrative -- fair or unfair -- surrounding the Red Sox is that they're not interested in competing at the top end of the market for star players.
Lowballing both Bogaerts and Devers last spring only reinforced that notion. Not only did the Red Sox fail to come close to striking deals with their two best players, they antagonized them with offers that didn't come close to reflecting their actual value.
That storyline has hung over the team since March. Like the pending last-place finish isn't bad enough, fans have lamented the potential departure of Bogaerts and Devers. And because Bogaerts can opt-out and leave in less than two months, if the Sox fail to get Devers extended, they would likely be in the same position they were with Betts three years ago -- forced to trade him elsewhere, rather than lose him altogether for a draft pick after 2023.
But even if the Red Sox were to sign only one of Bogaerts and Devers, landing Judge would serve to kill that narrative overnight. Few fans would complain if they kept one of their own two stars and signed Judge.
And if the Red Sox retained both and added Judge too? The ticket line would be forming in December on Jersey St., just like the old days.
Now, exactly how realistic is the above scenario? It qualifies as a longshot, certainly. But it's not like the idea isn't feasible.
The Red Sox have better salary commitments just over $88 million for 2023, plus some arbitration cases, led by Devers, which will send the number significantly higher. Verdugo and Nick Pivetta will see nice raises, but the rest of the arbitration-eligibles (including Reese McGuire, Franchy Cordero, Bobby Dalbec and a few others will also see modest bumps.
Let's add another $35 million or so for arb cases, bringing the Sox payroll commitments to just $123 million, leaving them about $110 million shy of the first CBT threshold ($233 million) for 2023.
Obviously, the Sox will need to bring in at least two veteran starting pitchers, which could eat into that figure. But if they gave a qualifying offer to Michael Wacha ($19 million) and picked up the option for James Paxton ($13 million), they would still have $78 million available.
That could buy a lot of superstars.
Understand that Judge will require the biggest investment the Red Sox have ever made for a player. He famously turned down seven years and $213.5 million from the Yankees on Opening Day. That would have featured an average annual salary of $30.5 million. Now that Judge stands a good chance of being the AL record holder for most homers in a season, it's not out of the question that he could leapfrog Mike Trout ($35.5 million) as the highest-paid position player.
Could Judge reach $40 million in AAV? Potentially. The Yankees, quite obviously, will not let him go without a fight. Across town, Mets owner Steve Cohen could make a bid. And the San Francisco Giants, in need of a star, could be prime players. The notion of at least four teams from Top 10 markets all driving up the price must make Judge and his representatives salivate.
It's possible that the Red Sox might insert themselves into the equation, if for no other reason than to make his eventual re-signing with the Yankees more costly for their rivals. They're not above happily being used in that process, since every dollar the Yankees have to spend to keep Judge in pinstripes is a dollar they don't have to allocate elsewhere.
Meanwhile, what are the odds that the Red Sox get in as honest-to-goodness competitors in the Judge Sweepstakes? I'd put the odds at about 10 percent.
But wouldn't it be fun? And wouldn't it be fascinating to envision a lineup in which the Sox have Bogaerts, Devers, Judge and Story as the heart of their batting order for the next seven or eight seasons?
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Team rosters for the Arizona Fall League were released his week.
The Red Sox will be among a handful of teams sending players to play for the Scottsdale Scorpions.
Heading to the AFL will be: catcher Stephen Scott, infielders Niko Kavadas and Nick Yorke, outfielder Wilyer Abreu and pitchers Jacob Webb, Thaddeus Ward, Aaron Perry and Ryan Zeferjahn.
Traditionally, teams send some of their top position player prospects, while the pitchers aren't of the same quality because organizations don't want to add to a top pitcher's workload from the preceding season. Ward is the exception here, since he underwent Tommy John surgery in 2021 and missed a sizable chunk of this season because he was rehabbing from the procedure.
Scott is one of the players whom the Sox converted to catcher. Yorke, a former first-round pick, had a poor first half before rebounding nicely in the second half for High A Greenville. Kavadas, an 11th-round pick out of Notre Dame, combined to hit 26 homers between Low A, High A and Double A.
Abreu, one of two prospects acquired from Houston in the Christian Vazquez deal, posted a .796 OPS at Double-A Portland over 39 games since the trade.
Games begin Oct. 3, with the AFL Championship played on Nov. 12.