Celtics media day is at the end of the month, which means practices and preseason games are coming up quickly. With that in mind, and with the Celtics entering the season with the highest expectations, we’re spending the rest of the month looking at 10 big questions for this team heading into training camp.
Question Number 5: What does Al Horford have left in the tank?
When Brad Stevens traded Kemba Walker away for Al Horford a summer ago, the move was met with a few “oh, that's nice”-types of comments. Horford had been underwhelming in Philadelphia and, though Oklahoma City sat him down because he was a little too good for a tanking team, he’d just missed half the previous season.
‘He’d make a nice backup to Robert Williams,’ many of us thought at the time. ‘It’ll be good to have a veteran voice on the bench.’
Obviously, things worked out a bit better than that.
Horford was a massive part of Boston’s success last season. At 35, he showed a renewed energy on defense, switching onto guards effectively. According to Cleaning the Glass, his 2.4% block percentage tied a career-best. Teams scored 3.7 fewer points per 100 possessions when Horford was on the floor. The Celtics' offense scored more points, shot better, and turned the ball over less with Horford out there.
He was very good, which was more than a nice surprise. It was necessary to the Celtics' success and their run to the NBA Finals. Now, however, we have to ask the question once again: What does Al have left?
Obviously, he made it through last season pretty much unscathed. He played in 69 regular season games, with some of the absences due to COVID-19 rather than injury. At 29 minutes per game, he played enough to be a major contributor but not so much that there was too much concern about overuse.
But 15 years in the NBA is 15 years in the NBA, and starting this season at 36 years old naturally raises questions about one’s durability. And if part of Horford’s success last season stemmed from having an extraordinary amount of time off, what will the short turnaround do to his body?
It’s a fair question, and one that becomes more important considering the lack of proven backup and Robert Williams’ own injury history.
It’s not out of the question to anticipate Williams missing time for something. It’s also not outrageous to expect Horford to miss time either by design or by necessity. There's a feeling in the organization that Luke Kornet has the potential to hold things down, but there's also the very real possibility that he can’t. And if he’s out of his league, then what happens if age limits Horford more than anticipated?
The Celtics relied on Horford to do a lot for them last season, and he came through for them. But at some point, Horford will become unreliable. Time only moves forward, and the rigors of the NBA on a body Horford’s size stack up.
So the Celtics will have to hatch a plan this season that involves less Horford, partly out of preservation of his body, and partly out of preservation for the future. Whether they sit him in back-to-backs, reduce his minutes, or start bringing him off the bench, Ime Udoka and his staff have to have some hard discussions about Horford and his future.
The sad fact is that Horford, eventually, will need to be phased out. He’s only under contract for this season, and each upcoming training camp will only hear this piece’s question asked more loudly regardless of whether he re-signs in Boston or not.
There are tough decisions ahead for everyone when it comes to Horford. He might have another great season left in his legs, but it won’t come without some added effort from the training staff. If everyone involved can manage his time this season well, then the Celtics can probably run everything similarly to last season but with some tweaks.
But if Horford’s body starts to betray him, then the changes will be more stark, and Udoka will have to shift to a new plan while Stevens will likely have to find reinforcements. In many ways, how Horford holds up could determine the course of the season.