By almost any measure, the 2022 Red Sox season has been an unmitigated disaster.
The team was widely expected to qualify for the playoffs -- especially so with the new expanded format -- having come within two games of the American League pennant last fall.
Instead, the team began poorly (10-19), rebounded in mid-May for a strong six weeks, then faded once July arrived. For most of the second half, the team has struggled to even reach the .500 mark, and with less than three weeks to go in the regular season, needs a hot streak just to finish with more wins than losses.
A last-place finish in the American League East -- their fifth since 2012 -- is virtually guaranteed.
But perhaps all is not lost.
If there's one positive development surrounding an otherwise forgettable season, it's that such embarrassing years have, in the past, spurred ownership to aggressively upgrade the roster. (Granted some of these moves have not always had the desired effect. Following a last-place finish in 2014, the team spent lavishly on free agents Pablo Sandoval and Hanley Ramirez, both of whom were calamitous signings).
For an ownership group that is highly motivated by negative reactions from its fan base, the Sox traditionally have responded by initiating lavish spending. Usually, that's involved bringing in star players from outside the organization (Sandoval, Ramirez, David Price et al).
This time, however, it may spur the Red Sox to retain its own high-profile players.
Xander Bogaerts can opt out of the remaining three years, $60 million on his contract and become a free agent after the season. Last March, in an apparent effort to let everyone know that they made an attempt to extend him, the Sox low-balled Bogaerts by adding just one more season to the current deal, worth another $30 million.
Unsurprisingly, Bogaerts rejected the move out of hand, and was said to be demoralized by the lack of goodwill on the part of the organization.
The move was seen as an indication that the Sox were only going through the motions when it came to re-signing Bogaerts, and were prepared to move on from their All-Star shortstop. That the Sox had, only weeks earlier, signed free agent infielder Trevor Story, a potential replacement at shortstop going forward, only further fueled the narrative that the Bogaerts Era -- which began in 2013 with the first of two championships -- was coming to an end.
The team's poor play throughout 2022 may have altered that storyline, however, Fan interest in the team has cratered, particularly in the second half. TV ratings are down sharply from last season, and attendance has slipped. The start of the NFL season has rendered the Red Sox almost an afterthought in local sports media circles.
Since the spring's contractual miscalculation, a steady drumbeat has emanated from upper management. Principal owner John Henry, team president and CEO Sam Kennedy and chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom has all said the team wishes to retain Bogaerts and have him finish his career in a Red Sox uniform.
Talk, of course, is cheap. It's one thing to say that you want to keep Bogaerts; it's quite another to do it.
But lately, there's been more public urgency about the matter. Bloom, appearing on NESN earlier this week, said extending Bogaerts remains "top of mind,'' on the team's upcoming offseason agenda. And Wednesday night, Kennedy appeared on NESN's pregame show, echoing Bloom's remarks and revealing that, only an hour or so earlier, he had sought out Bogaerts on the field to convey the same message to the player directly.
Could this all be for show, a late-season PR effort, designed to serve as a distraction? Potentially.
I'm choosing to interpret it otherwise.
For Kennedy to go out of his way to approach Bogaerts, then reveal his message publicly on the network which is 80 percent owned by the franchise itself, would seem to be a risky gambit. Kennedy knows his word can and will be used against him if the Sox make another inadequate offer and Bogaerts signs elsewhere.
It sounds to me like the poor performance of the 2022 Red Sox has resulted in an awakening for the Sox' top decision-makers. They've seen the disinterest, the outright antipathy toward the organization for how the season unfolded. They understand what's at stake -- in TV ratings, ticket sales, corporate sponsorship -- if the team doesn't improve markedly for 2023,
The only thing worse than a last-place finish is an angry fan base, convinced that the Sox are unwilling to spend to make things better.
The Red Sox were properly criticized for failing to sign Mookie Betts, then trading him in February of 2020. The fallout from that was significant, but mitigated by the team's surprisingly deep run into the 2021 postseason.
Without on-field success to fall back on, the Red Sox risk further alienating their fans. Poor on-field performance coupled with an unwillingness to retain its own homegrown stars is supremely a bad marketing plan.
Had the Sox enjoyed a more competitive season, it may have been easier to move on from Bogaerts and continue to sell the narrative that the team's improved player development system would soon yield his replacement. Now, the Sox don't have that club in their bag.
Bogaerts, of course, isn't the only potential free agent on deck. Once the future for Bogaerts is determined one way or another, the Sox will soon have to move on to Rafael Devers, who, thanks to his age, will be far more expensive to retain.
That's for later this winter. For now, the Sox seem to have been shamed into a more aggressive approach to retain Bogaerts.
And, they have their train wreck of a season to thank.