MIAMI GARDENS, Fla. — I believe in Bill Belichick. You bet your Patriots pajamas I do.
Yes, Tom Brady's share of The Dynasty grows larger by the year, but Belichick is/was damn good himself. Brady doesn't win six in New England without Belichick, and The Hoodie wouldn't be mentioned as an all-time great without TB12.
There has never been a mind in the NFL like Belichick's. For years he was steps ahead of everyone else, and he could think about things in so many different dimensions that us mere mortals would need three naps to do the same due to mental exhaustion. For years, he coached and drove his team with a singular focus. Winning consumed his entire life. It drove every single decision he made. Everything was about the next game, the next season, the next title.
As Belichick embarks on coaching his first game as a 70-year-old, those days are now behind him. Is the mind still there? Of course, sharp as ever. Does he want to win? Absolutely. Does he make decisions in the same ruthless manner he did 10 years ago? Of course he doesn't, and I don't know how anyone can really argue that.
Even Belichick, the picture of consistency to his very day in appearance, tone and enjoyment of the game, is not immune to change. He is New England's highest peak where football is concerned, but even mountains change over time, eroded by winds, rain and the changing climate.
That is Belichick at this point. He appears to look almost the same. Sounds that way too. But he too has been changed by the years — softened would probably be the operative word.
And that's where you have to start when you talk about the 2022 Patriots and what might await them this season, starting with today's 1 p.m. kickoff against a Dolphins team that used to be a speed bump for the Patriots, but has now won three straight and four of five in the series. That seems to coincide with the Patriots' descent into mediocrity, which is where they have been back to the middle of the 2019 season when Brady saw the writing on the wall well before most of us.
Do I believe in Belichick, the singular coach as we enter this season? Absolutely. He's the sole reason why this team isn't headed for a 3-14 campaign.
But to make the leap from mediocrity to playoff contender with this Patriots team would mean that I would have to suspend reality.
I would have to put all of my faith, all of my belief, that Belichick can do the unheard of at his age with a lot of other key things going against him as well.
I'm sure some of you are doing just that. And I don't blame you. Part of me wants to do it, too.
But I can't. For the Patriots to build off of what they did last season — which should absolutely be the goal and bottom line — I would have to believe the following:
- That Josh McDaniels or any tried-and-true offensive coordinator/QB guru is easily replaceable by any type of coach — from any side of the ball.
This seems to be similar to how Belichick views the QB position, when he easily could have caved and given Brady what he wanted in order to stay. Belichick didn't do that. Not only did McDaniels leave for Vegas, but Belichick allowed offensive line coach Carm Bricillo, who had one year left on his contract, to leave as well. Why? Because Belichick had Matt Patricia and believed he could run the offense and coach the offensive line — despite the Patriots making sweet music to the tune of six Super Bowl titles with a kick-ass offensive coordinator, and an ass-kicker as o-line coach (Dante Scarnecchia).
Sure, Patricia has some background in offense and line play, but if it's so easy to switch sides, why has almost no one done it in recent years? Mention this type of switch around the NFL and all you hear is the name of Juan Castillo. That move, Castillo moving from o-line coach to defensive coordinator, torched the 2011 Dream Team Eagles, ultimately cost Andy Reid his job in Philadelphia and sent Castillo into purgatory for a time.
Belichick's not the only person who has to believe in Patricia and Judge – the players do as well. They have to believe their coaches know more than they do and can teach them something new about their craft every day in order to put their full faith in what they are being asked to do. Multiple sources close to the team have said that this has been a huge problem, and could be the ultimate downfall of Belichick's experiment.
Thinking Patricia and/or any combination with Joe Judge — a disaster as Patriots WRs coach in 2019 — can seamlessly replace someone like McDaniels who studied and did the job for 15 years — let alone the offensive position coaches who are gone and replaced by inexperience (receivers, QBs, running backs) is an insult to McDaniels and other innovative minds on the offensive side of the ball.
Sorry, even if Belichick is heavily involved and brings his knowledge every single day, that's one bridge too far for me.
- That how you practice for five weeks means absolutely nothing.
My fact-based criticism of the Patriots' offense this summer wasn't about one practice. It wasn't about preseason games. It was about the indisputable fact that from July 27th through the Raiders game on Aug. 26th, the Patriots' offense was wretched. I'm talking expansion team-level offense. That includes four joint practices against two defenses of varying potential. They were flat-out awful on a daily basis. Couldn't block. Mac Jones was jittery. There was virtually no downfield passing game. No rhythm. No nothing. That is NOT hyperbole.
Don't want to believe me? Ask Mike Lombardi.
"I think you see a little lack of focus [offensively] because they're kind of all over the place, right?" he said on his podcast. "I think this is the challenge that awaits Bill as he watches his offense this summer. How does he say no to all these ideas that these new coaches have come into, and remain focused on the task at hand? I think that's the real challenge, right? I think that's what they have to do."
Lombardi is no Belichick critic. He was out in Vegas at a practice. He has sons on both staffs of teams that had joint practices with the Patriots (Raiders, Panthers). This is Lombardi, very nicely, saying what I have been saying all summer — they were a disorganized mess led by inexperienced coaches who wanted to try some new ideas that weren't remotely working.
Julian Edelman was at a Raiders practice, talks to players on the team and is not far removed from being in this offense himself. Does he share our concerns about this offense?
"I do. I do share that concern,” Edelman said in an interview with WEEI’s “The Greg Hill Show” on Friday. “You’re always concerned when you lose your offensive coordinator and there’s a new guy coming in, regardless of who it is, with a young quarterback that you have in Mac Jones that had a successful rookie year.
“That second year is usually his biggest jump, and when he’s got to change play-callers in the middle of it, it wouldn’t matter if it was someone else that called offensive plays. It’s still going to be an effect and a learning experience for that relationship between the quarterback and the play-caller.”
“Didn’t look great, they looked like they didn’t have any juice. ... It didn’t look good in the preseason. I’m not going to lie.”
To believe that the Patriots are suddenly going to pick up where they left off last season — which should be the aim — would mean that the entirety of training camp means absolutely nothing. I mean, you might as well just skip training camp next season and just go to the two-week run-up then.
Sorry, can't do it.
(Getty Images)
David Andrews directing traffic ... last season.
- That changing a lot of what worked last season will have no negative impact on Jones and this offense.
Why exactly did things have to change for Jones, who got a master's level education last season? Was it only because Patricia and Judge had to demonstrate their influence? So they could be on the same level as the players? Be careful what you wish for.
This should have been a natural progression for Jones entering his second season in the program, along with Nelson Agholor, Kendrick Bourne, Hunter Henry and Jonnu Smith. Instead of building off that, the Patriots have changed a lot — although they could junk it and go back, and may have these last two weeks, we don't know. That is bound to set all of them back.
Then toss in an offensive line that has everyone changing positions except David Andrews ... why exactly?
One understated aspect of the changes that I didn't fully comprehend until I viewed the preseason coaches film this week — I don't think the Patriots have changed the language up front as much as they have eliminated it entirely. Opposing coaches remarked how the Patriots' offensive line barely converses on plays, in games and practices. No checks. No pointing. Nothing. That was backed up on film in the Raiders game. If this is going to continue into the season, you can't convince me that eliminating Andrews from sorting out the protection in tandem with the QB — a staple for years here — will be a good thing for anyone. His mind is part of what makes Andrews a damn good center, and now you're taking that away from him?
- That Belichick having a heavy hand in the offense is a good thing for this team.
The Patriots were at their best when Belichick had two competent coordinators who could run their sides of the ball. Belichick could be a CEO, chime in where he was needed, but he was also free to use his mind to outwit the opposing sideline.
With each passing year and an increasing exodus of established coaches from this staff, the Patriots no longer are a team you could count on to not beat themselves. Last season was rife with sloppy play, and the defense was awful in year three of the Steve Belichick reign until Bill stepped in to right the ship. He could do that because McDaniels was handling the offense. Special teams could have used some more of Belichick's touch, but at least the combo of McDaniels on offense and Belichick on defense made the Patriots a better and competitive football team.
So, now, taking Belichick away from defense and moving him into McDaniels' offensive shoes ... is going to make this team better overall?
Sorry, I just don't buy it.
(Adam Richins for BSJ)
- That without Brady, this team has enough top talent to compete.
Brady was The Great Equalizer. No matter how many times Belichick whiffed in the draft, with free agency and trades, the greatness of Brady was almost always there to bail him out (they all hit a wall in 2019).
Brady has been gone for two years, and they're 17-17 without him. You do the math.
And this team might be one of the worst in terms of overall talent — certainly homegrown players — in recent memory. Most of the top-end talent on this team was bought and paid for in the Checkbook Offseason of 2021.
Matthew Judon, blue-chip player. Christian Barmore, a draft pick, has a chance to become a red chip if not a blue this season.
The rest? The running backs are good, but replaceable. Adrian Phillips, Hunter Henry and David Andrews are good players without much room to go up. Kyle Dugger is talented, but will he finally take the leap in his third season? Trent Brown is a good player ... when he's healthy and motivated, which are annual question marks. Who else? Jones is the type of QB who will be a product of what he's surrounded with — coaching and talent. A good player by himself who could be very good in the right situation. Right now, he's no Brady ... not that anyone ever will be, which increases the need for more talent on the roster.
That's about it for players that could be top end in the league this season, and that's being generous.
So, now, suddenly in the third year without Brady, these Patriots are going to punch above their talent weight class, with potentially worse coaching and a spread-too-thin Belichick at 70 years old?
I'm sorry, but I can't go that far. It's purely fantasyland until the Patriots actually do it.
I believe in Belichick, you bet I do — with a talented roster and a very good coaching staff.
Even without the latter, Belichick by himself is good for wins this season against the Lions, Browns, Bears and Jets twice. That's five wins right there.
Belichick will steal a few from: a Dolphins split, Steelers, Colts, Vikings and Cardinals.
Even if they deliver all five, that's 10-7 and likely not in the playoffs.
I have faith in Belichick, absolutely, which is why I would not be surprised if the Patriots pull an upset – yes, against the Dolphins ... this is where they are — on Sunday with two weeks to prepare for this one game against a rookie head coach. Probably will happen, just so Twitter is a hellscape for me come 4 p.m. today.
But this is a 17-game game season, and the Patriots improving over last season is just something I can't get on board with.
